"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

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Journal Archive
Twitter: @kherriage

Thursday
Sep192019

VRA Weekly Blog Update: Fed Meeting, is profit-taking on the way? AAII Investor Sentiment. The Gold, Silver Criminal Conspiracy.

Fed Meeting, Powell Getting Better!

1/4 point rate cut and presser behind us. All pretty much as expected. Fed Chair Powell did ok. The trading action during and just after the Fed presser is typically sporadic and not always easy to trust.

Here’s what we do know; the cut has now taken place. That “good news” that is behind us. What will the markets key off of next…whats the next “buy the rumor event”.

In addition, the first 1/2 of September is typically bullish…like this has been…but the second half is just the opposite. Bearish. Analytics of the last 50 years support this.

Why? October is “crash month”…just about every major crash has occurred during October. Some profit-taking would not surprise me.

We remain medium to long term bullish and short term cautious. It’s entirely possible that the markets keep blasting off higher from here but we rely on market internals as a ST guide…and they were weak yesterday. Roughly 2:1 negative across the board. Again, by no means a “bear market” signal…but yes, we will be watching internals closely. They are our best ST signal indicator. And we’re following the Fed’s actions in the repo market as well. Tyler got into this in yesterdays podcast. Is QE lite now in place.. and what is happening in the repo market?

https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-tyler-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-sep-18-2019

AAII Investor Sentiment: The Public is Returning

35% bulls to 27% bears. Sentiment follows price. As expected, the public is returning. Finally.

VRA Bottom Line: the VRA System is flashing extreme overbought on every broad market index. Our wall of worry move higher is dissipating. We’ve already had ECB rate cuts and QE. We’ve had good news on US-China trade. And the public is no longer bearish, with investor sentiment flipping to neutral-bullish. J Powell has a history of mini-crashes and we are entering the worst period of the year, filled with major market declines. And this, remember what happened to the markets in Q4 of last year? It led to the worst December since the great depression.

We want little to do with any of these risks. Lets be the smart money.

Not a time to be bearish…just a time to be smart.

— — 

US JUSTICE DEPT INDICTMENT: JP MORGAN GOLD/SILVER MANIPULATION CARTEL WAS A “CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY”

As discussed in these pages for 15 years, and as GATA and Bill Murphy have battled for 25 years, the commodities markets have been rigged. Absolutely and completely. Late yesterday news broke that the US Justice Department charged JP Morgan (and others) with RICO charges for multi-decade criminal practices of gold/silver rigging . Racketeering. The RICO statutes were put into place to catch the mob. Sounds about right for the banking cartel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-jpmorgan-traders-charged-massive-gold-market-manipulation-fraud

— -

This should be just the beginning of legal worries for the banking cartel. RICO is no joke. This criminality ran rampant in major money center banks, in the US and Europe, for up to 3 decades.

We’ll follow this story closely. If there’s justice there will be class action lawsuits that we can join as well. No, we were not conspiracy theorists.

This will be a busy week. Again, we don’t believe in picking tops. But we stand ready to act in the event a short term market top and correction is about to unfold.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Wednesday
Sep112019

VRA Weekly Blog Update: 9/11/01. 18 Years Later, We Still Need Answers.

Good Wednesday morning all. I have posted this VRA Update (updated with new information/facts) every 9/11 since 2006. Today marks 18 years since 9/11/01. Like most, I was in shock in the weeks/months that followed the attacks. Then I saw this picture, with an article signed by several hundred scientists that (engineers, architects) that raised serious doubts as to the official story (the list of expert signatories at ae911truth.org has since grown to more than 3000). If the premise of this VRA Update offends you, that is not my intent. Please read with an open mind. Family members of the untold thousands lost deserve answers.

What exactly caused 267 stories (WTC 1, 2 and 7) of steel beams to melt, with concrete pulverized in mid-air, as each building exploded/imploded at free fall speed, into their own footprints?

I have posted the following VRA Update each year, beginning in 2006 (modified “slightly” each year to include updated statistics/facts):

As human beings, we will never be able to agree on everything. When it comes to topics surrounding investing, politics, religion, etc., we each have our own viewpoints and belief systems…just as it should be.

Now…five years following the atrocities of 9/11 (now 18 years), many of us have found that when it comes to processing/discussing the events surrounding “that horrible day” the same situation tends to apply…we have our own beliefs and opinions…and some have a challenge “going there”…it’s still too soon.

However, there are a few things that I am certain we can all agree to, as it applies to 9/11. We remember exactly where we were on that Black Tuesday…when we first learned of the horrific acts. We all felt the same shock to the system, followed by a kind of indescribable shock/pain, as we witnessed planes flying into buildings. And, we all felt the helplessness and overwhelming grief, as we watched in horror as the buildings fell to the ground.

As I watched the events of the day unfold, mixed with the hopes that this was all just a bad dream, were questions in my mind that would only grow stronger as the years passed. Over these past years I have spoken onstage frequently regarding the questions I continue to have about 9/11, and have invited experts (authors, researchers, architects) to share their findings, views and concerns.

Some may feel that I am being disrespectful to the fallen by daring to question the official story. To the contrary, I believe that opening a new investigation would be the highest form of honoring our dead. Let me put it this way; if I had lost a loved one that day, I would want to know exactly what really happened to cause their death…I would want to know the truth…and I would not rest until I believed I knew the truth. I’ve gotten to know several family members over the years (I knew several that perished) and I can tell you that they agree, passionately. They are desperate for the truth. And how can we ever forget the 1000’s of 9/11 responders that have died since 9/11, most with cancer from deadly carcinogens in the air. Their families are desperate for the truth as well.

In addition, we should consider the direct end-results of 9/11…none of which would have taken place without 9/11; the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where more than 6600 US soldiers have died so far…not to mention the 100,000+ that have been injured on the battlefield (a total of more than 400,000 have filed disability claims). To date, we have also spent more than $7 trillion for both wars.The estimates for innocent lives lost in Iraq and Afghanistan fluctuate widely, but the figure can conservatively be placed at 500,000 innocents dead…with more than 7 million people displaced from their homes. And we have the Patriot Act as an end result. Written long before 9/11 and enacted by Congress just days later. The loss of civil liberties from this Act is incalculable…but as long as “we feel safer”, this frontal attack on our constitution can be overlooked. Shameful.

Regardless of your beliefs, I encourage you to view the following three questions with an open mind. These are (a few of) the same questions that I have struggled with these past many years…maybe you have as well. With half of the country now doubting the official story, it’s clearly an issue thats not going away. I believe that is a

1) Prior to 9/11/2001 not a single steel skyscraper had ever collapsed due to fire. Never…anywhere on the planet…in the 100 year history of steel skyscrapers. But on 9/11, three skyscrapers supposedly did just that. Question: exactly how did two 100+ story steel buildings (WTC 1 & 2), and one 47 story steel building (WTC 7), collapse because of fires? In addition, each building collapsed at free fall speed, with no support whatsoever from the floors below…how is this even possible? Note: More than 2000 architects and engineers have since signed sworn statements that point out the impossibility of the physics of the “official story” surrounding the collapses.

2) 19 hijackers, armed with box cutters as we have been told, were able to overtake the crews/pilots of 4 commercial aircraft without pilots alerting ground control. In addition, the flight paths flown by hijackers were incredibly difficult, while the hijackers were all unskilled pilots. Question: Why would highly skilled and trained pilots give up their cockpits to hijackers, when this is the one thing they are taught not to do? Why didn’t the pilots alert ground control to the hijackings? And how did the hijackers, each amateur pilots that had problems merely flying small, single engine aircraft, manage to pilot 4 large commercial aircraft through incredibly difficult/impossible flight patterns?

Here’s the testimony from Capt. Russ Wittenberg, U.S. Air Force — Retired commercial pilot who flew for Pan Am and United Airlines for 35 years. Aircraft flown: Boeing 707, 720, 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, and 777. 30,000+ total hours flown. He had previously flown the actual two United Airlines aircraft that were hijacked on 9/11 (Flight 93, which impacted in Pennsylvania, and Flight 175, the second plane to hit the WTC). Former U.S. Air Force fighter pilot with over 100 combat missions. “I flew the two actual aircraft which were involved in 9/11; the Fight number 175 and Flight 93, the 757 that allegedly went down in Shanksville and Flight 175 is the aircraft that’s alleged to have hit the South Tower. I don’t believe it’s possible for, like I said, for a terrorist, a so-called terrorist to train on a [Cessna] 172, then jump in a cockpit of a 757–767 class cockpit, and vertical navigate the aircraft, lateral navigate the aircraft, and fly the airplane at speeds exceeding it’s design limit speed by well over 100 knots, make high-speed high-banked turns, exceeding — pulling probably 5, 6, 7 G’s. And the aircraft would literally fall out of the sky. I couldn’t do it and I’m absolutely positive they couldn’t do it.”

3) Where was the US military…including the Air Force…on that fateful day? Their claim is even more incredible…that they were conducting military exercises against, you guessed it, terrorist attacks on the US. And, that these exercises prevented them from getting jets in the air in time to help/prevent the planes from hitting their targets. The US military, at the time, had a $600 billion ANNUAL budget. In addition, the Pentagon is the worlds most protected building, including a massive defense system of its own (including air defense). Question: why did it take up to two hours (according to sworn testimony) after the first notice of hijackings to scramble military jets. And, where is the footage from any of the hundreds of cameras from the Pentagon that would show American Airlines flight 77 hitting the building? Up until now we have only seen a few frames from a local ATM camera, and in none of those frames is an airplane visible. The following is sworn testimony from Col. George Nelson, MBA, U.S. Air Force (ret) — an FAA certified commercial pilot. He is a former U.S. Air Force aircraft accident investigator and airplane parts authority and graduate, U.S. Air Force War College and has a 34-year Air Force career, FAA certified Airframe and Powerplant Mechanic.

“In all my years of direct and indirect participation, I never witnessed nor even heard of an aircraft loss, where the wreckage was accessible, that prevented investigators from finding enough hard evidence to positively identify the make, model, and specific registration number of the aircraft — and in most cases the precise cause of the accident. The government alleges that four wide-body airliners crashed on the morning of September 11 2001, resulting in the deaths of more than 3,000 human beings, yet not one piece of hard aircraft evidence has been produced in an attempt to positively identify any of the four aircraft. On the contrary, it seems only that all potential evidence was deliberately kept hidden from public view. With all the evidence readily available at the Pentagon crash site, any unbiased rational investigator could only conclude that a Boeing 757 did not fly into the Pentagon as alleged. Similarly, with all the evidence available at the Pennsylvania crash site, it was most doubtful that a passenger airliner caused the obvious hole in the ground and certainly not the Boeing 757 as alleged. As painful and heartbreaking as was the loss of innocent lives and the lingering health problems of thousands more, a most troublesome and nightmarish probability remains that so many Americans appear to be involved in the most heinous conspiracy in our country’s history.” http://www.physics911.net

In addition, here are a few quotes from top government officials who have raised serious questions:

“[9/11] family members … have said that only a fourth of their well researched questions were answered.” ~~ Former U.S. Senator Mike Gravel, who courageously entered Pentagon Papers into the Senate record

“[There are] serious challenges to the commission’s credibility. No wonder the 9/11 families were outraged by these revelations and called for a new commission.” ~~ Former FBI Director Louis Freeh in Wall Street Journal article

“The official story is so inadequate and far-fetched that there must be another one.” ~~ Andreas von Buelow, PhD, former Minister for Research and Technology of West Germany, 25 years in German parliament

“What’s the 9/11 commission got to hide?” ~~ Curt Weldon, ten-term Republican Congressman

“I think the inquiry has been very shallow, very superficial. We have to try and get the truth.” ~~ Paul Hellyer, former Minister of Defense of Canada

“It [the 9/11 Commission] is a national scandal. One of these days we will have to get the full story, because the 9/11 issue is so important to America.” ~~ Max Clelland, U.S. Senator, former member of the 9/11 Commission

— — -

On this most somber of days, we mourn for the lives that have been lost, both directly and indirectly. While I was not in NYC on 9/11, my previous firm (Oppenheimer) had its offices in WTC 5. I knew people from my Wall Street days that lost their lives. The best way that I know how to honor them is with a new investigation. I realize that many reading this may have doubts. I’ll ask you to do what I have asked many to do; spend 5 minutes on AE911Truth.com and read the letters of testimony from scientists that are calling for a new investigation. I don’t have the answers…I have no clue what really happened on 9/11…I just know that the official story is impossible to believe. IMPOSSIBLE. I’ll never stop asking questions. Too many people deserve answers…we all deserve the truth of 9/11/01.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

 

Thursday
Sep052019

VRA Weekly Blog Update: As Expected, September Fireworks. Key Housing Barometers at New Highs. Stunning Sentiment Readings Continue.

Good Thursday morning all. Overnight we learned that US-China trade talks are back on, with mid-level talks beginning this week and the big kahoonas confabbing next month. DJ +443 as I write.

Global markets are also in rally mode on the heels of Hong Kong withdrawing plans to enforce their extradition bill, in conjunction with Mainland China earlier this week.

We stand by our 8/29 VRA Blog Update. We even dance to it. The ramp higher is on. Fireworks to the upside.

One More time…September is Here. E,W & F style

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs069dndIYk

September, Hugely Important. I Expect Fireworks to the Upside

Here at the VRA we’re big believers in viewing the stock market as a “leading indicator” and as “the single best discounting mechanism on the planet”. This was the mindset and training of my mentors (RIP Ted Parsons and Michael Metz), who themselves learned this investing approach from their mentors, both of whom worked on Wall Street during the Great Depression. Quite the lineage, no? Not a day goes by that I don’t hear their voices and give thanks.

As a discounting mechanism, it’s my belief that the markets will (soon) begin to move sharply higher, giving us advance notice of the events that we can expect in September (do you hear the song in your head…cause I do). Here’s what September is about to deliver:

1) The ECB has already pre-announced their “Big Bazooka”, in what will be aggressive central bank policy of interest rate cuts AND the re-start of QE, or quantitative easing. The ECB meets on 9/10. Expect fireworks…with strong language from the ECB that more is to come

2) The following week (9/17) our Fed meets. While we won’t follow the ECB with a re-start of QE, we WILL have a rate cut of 1/4 to 1/2 percent, with almost certainly a change in the Fed’s language, strongly hinting that additional rate cuts are on the way.

3) and in what could truly be a jolt to the upside for markets, China is still on for a D.C meeting next month. There is little to no excitement today about a trade deal being reached (should they make the trip), which is music to my ears. Folks, we want the surprise out of nowhere….one that sends the DJ 3000 points higher over the next month. Again, the markets will almost certainly begin to discount the possibility of “some” forward movement in US-China trade.

All of the above takes place within the next 2–4 weeks. I fully expect a ramp higher in the markets in advance. It may already be underway.

Now is not the time to be bearish. Central banks are about to re-announce to the world “get your money out of banks and savings accounts. Put your money into stocks and real estate. Do it now, because if you don’t, we will keep cutting rates until you do. Do not fight us. We are the all knowing, all seeing, all powerful, masters of the universe.”

One day, central bank madness will become a massive liability. This is not that day.”

-------

The VRA Portfolio continues to outperform the markets in 2019(VRA +21.9% vs S&P 500 +17.33%). Investors remain overwhelmingly bearish, as we see each week in our investor sentiment surveys and continued outflows from equities.

Here’s the latest Fear and Greed Index Survey, updated last night.

A reading of 25…Extreme Fear…with US markets just 5% from all time highs. In my 34 years I have never seen anything like this. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, these ultra bearish surveys are stunning.

Know this; the investing public is rarely (if ever) right about the direction of the stock market. When investors are ultra bullish, we should be ultra cautious. When investors are ultra bearish, as today, we MUST be ultra bullish. This is how we are positioned…we remain in “back up the truck” territory.

The VRA Investing System remains at 10/12 Screens bullish. Comprised of fundamentals, technicals, internals and sentiment, the VRA System is designed to have us in the markets in advance of bull market, big moves higher and out of the markets, in advance of bear market, big moves lower.

It is important that the small caps and transports begin to act better, but with our Leading Economic Indicators flashing “economic expansion” and our housing indexes (ITB, XHB) near 52 week highs, all signs point to further economic growth.

I became a broker in 1985. Reagans tax reforms and deregulation were just beginning to fully kick in. US markets would double over the next 2.5 years, taking the global economy higher with it. Reagan went on to help create more than 20 million new jobs. The Trump Economic Miracle will be more impactful. Yes, taking down China and elitist globalists is a major battle….scars will be left…but folks, the end result will be an economic boom the likes that we haven’t seen in a generation. The Trump Economic Miracle will not only take us back to 4–5% GDP but it will power the worlds economic engines along with it.

Each point made above has been my view since Trump was elected. I may be wrong…but I tend to get the big calls right.

— — — -

Of course, after the “Russia Russia Russia” hoax and “Impeach Impeach Impeach” fraud both fell by the wayside, TDS infected never-Trumpers had to find something else to fear monger Americans about. What did they choose? “We’re going into a recession! Run…run away from the US economy as fast as you can!”

But once again, lies based in fiction rarely hold up. Folks, as we cover daily, the US economy is on FIRE! Plain and simple, we are in rock and roll territory. We saw evidence of this again yesterday, as 3 key housing sector barometers either hit new all-time highs or are now within 1% of ATH. We know what a slowdown in housing looks like…we warned and alerted extensively about exactly this in 2006–2007, as housing charts/barometers broke down just prior to the GFC. What we’re seeing today is a healthy and improving housing market. The recession hoaxers are going to have to take their crazy elsewhere.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
Aug292019

Get Ready for a September Melt Up. Thank You, Mr. Treasury Secretary. Stunning Sentiment Readings.

Roughly 3 hours after yesterdays (second) VRA Update, where we applied Occam’s razor and made our case that global bond markets are screaming at us “there’s not enough debt in the world…interest rates will keep plummeting until you issue more debt”, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced this:

We rarely use our clout to phone the White House. Tyler and I don’t like to abuse the privilege. We were a bit surprised they acted on our advice that quickly :) (Don Jr. does follows me on twitter)

Folks, investments are driven purely by one economic law; supply and demand. When a stock goes parabolic, the ONLY reason that it does so is that there is more demand than supply. There are more buyers than sellers, meaning that there are not enough available shares and those shares must then rise in price. It is that simple.

With this economic law in mind, let's apply Occam’s razor to this crazy move lower in bond yields, in the US and globally. Aren’t the bond markets SCREAMING “there is not enough supply…we need MORE debt?”

It sounds insane…I’ll likely be laughed out of rooms for making this argument…but it doesn’t mean that I’m wrong.

When this mountain of global demand for debt starts making its way into equities, wonder what might take place in our stock markets??

VRA System Update

Each week we welcome new members to the VRA…great having you with us! The following is an excerpt from Tuesdays VRA Update. This is how we’re positioned…we believe you should be aggressively long. The best discounting mechanism on the planet is kicking in. DJ +327 as of writing this.

“September, Hugely Important. I Expect Fireworks to the Upside

Here at the VRA we’re big believers in viewing the stock market as a “leading indicator” and as “the single best discounting mechanism on the planet”. This was the mindset and training of my mentors (RIP Ted Parsons and Michael Metz), who themselves learned this investing approach from their mentors, both of whom worked on Wall Street during the Great Depression. Quite the lineage, no? Not a day goes by that I don’t hear their voices and give thanks.

As a discounting mechanism, it’s my belief that the markets will (soon) begin to move sharply higher, giving us advance notice of the events that we can expect in September (do you hear the song in your head…cause I do). Here’s what September is about to deliver:

1) The ECB has already pre-announced their “Big Bazooka”, in what will be aggressive central bank policy of interest rate cuts AND the re-start of QE, or quantitative easing. The ECB meets on 9/10. Expect fireworks…with strong language from the ECB that more is to come

2) The following week (9/17) our Fed meets. While we won’t follow the ECB with a re-start of QE, we WILL have a rate cut of 1/4 to 1/2 percent, with almost certainly a change in the Fed’s language, strongly hinting that additional rate cuts are on the way.

3) and in what could truly be a jolt to the upside for markets, China is still on for a D.C meeting next month. There is little to no excitement today about a trade deal being reached (should they make the trip), which is music to my ears. Folks, we want the surprise out of nowhere….one that sends the DJ 3000 points higher over the next month. Again, the markets will almost certainly begin to discount the possibility of “some” forward movement in US-China trade.

All of the above takes place within the next 2–4 weeks. I fully expect a ramp higher in the markets in advance. It may already be underway.

Now is not the time to be bearish. Central banks are about to re-announce to the world “get your money out of banks and savings accounts. Put your money into stocks and real estate. Do it now, because if you don’t, we will keep cutting rates until you do. Do not fight us. We are the all knowing, all seeing, all powerful, masters of the universe.”

One day, central bank madness will become a massive liability. This is not that day.”

— —

AAII Sentiment Survey

26% bulls, with the markets just 4% from ATH. Not even sure stunning is a strong enough word.

 

10/12 VRA Investing System Screens Bullish…back up the truck.

And how about this; as of yesterday, the yield on the S&P 500 is now greater than the yield on 30 year treasury bonds. The last time this occurred? March, 2009. The bear market lows, following the GFC (which we nailed within minutes).

— —

So you are ready for the good times to come…”September” by EW & F

https://twitter.com/KHerriage/status/1167026299455660032

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
Aug222019

RECESSION FEARS? Uh….NO. Housing About to Get Hot. Miners, Major Buy Signal.

Over the last few days Tyler and I have fielded a ton of questions, from VRA Members, friends and family, about the 24/7 news coverage about “the coming recession” in the US. How could anyone miss it…the media would love nothing better than to topple Trump, even if it means enduring a painful recession that could cost millions of Americans their jobs. Personally, I find the medias behavior disgusting. It’s exactly this type of fake news reporting that keeps investors bearish and out of stocks. It explains why the latest AAII Sentiment Survey (updated last night) shows just 26% of investors bullish with a huge 39% of investors bearish. As contrarians, we know exactly what this means; back up the truck and buy, buy, buy.

The VRA Investing System was built to spot economic booms and busts, and spot them early. Just yesterday, both ITB (Housing Construction ETF) and HGX (Housing Index) hit new 52 week highs. The media seems clueless to this fact, so we’ll report it for them; there has never been a recession in the US when the housing market is solid. Housing is THE leading economic indicator. Today, with two leading housing indicators flashing “strong buy”, the market is doing its job as a discounting mechanism….it’s telegraphing what’s about to take place; the US housing market is about to get hot.

Because housing leads (everything) economically, we see the possibility of a recession as “very slim”. The VRA Investing System remains at 10/12 screens bullish. We continue to see a major move higher into year end. Our DJ 30,000 target is unchanged.

And more evidence that the US economy is rocking and rolling. Trucking tonnage is +7%, year over year, in July. Folks, that’s another new all time high. #NotRecessionary

Now, we look for the transportation index and small caps to regain their 200 dma.

NEXT UP: Mega Global Stock Market Rally

Again, the all clear was given on US-China trade war last week. Recession, in the near term, is a laughable prospect. As the single best discounting mechanism on the planet, markets are about to roar higher. It started this weekend with China announcing a massive easing program and continues this week with Fed Chair J Powell speaking at the annual Jackson Hole meetings this week. Rate cuts are coming…we’re talking coordinated cuts on a scale the world has rarely seen.

The ECB meets on 9/12. Late last week they tipped their hand (aggressively), with the statement that they’re about to launch the “Big Bazooka”, meaning significant rate cuts and the re-launch of QE. Germany, the largest country in Europe, has historically stuck by their commitment to keeping debt/GDP at no more than 35%. Beginning next month, fiscal conservatism begins to go out the window.

Following the ECB, our Fed meets on 9/17 with a rate cut of .25-.50 a certainty. More importantly, we look for the Fed to change their language from the last Fed meeting when they state that we are now in a cycle of rate cuts (not merely just a mid-cycle adjustment).

Don’t fight the tape. Don’t fight the Fed.

Know this; all of the fears out there serve as a BIG “wall of worry”. Markets love to climb them. There will come a time…likely with the DJ at 40,000 to 50,000…that the public starts to forget some of these indelible marks. The fact that we have a fake news media that only stokes fear and divisiveness elongates our mental recovery process.

PRECIOUS METALS/MINERS STILL ON MAJOR BUY SIGNAL

Our most important technical buy signal in PM’s/miners continues to flash “strong buy”. The 13 year downtrend line has been broken (miners to gold)..this is when this group gets red hot. While not a ST timing signal, a better than 2:1 ratio tells us that smart money is aggressively buying the miners. This only happens when gold/silver are in full-on buy signals.

In my career, this level of outperformance by the miners is the biggest buy signal of all. Keep buying PM’s and VRA Buy Rec miners. Multi year massive move higher is in process.

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook