"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra: Buy Gold and China. Sell short on pretty much everything else. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

Twitter: @kherriage

Karl Bessey

Mary Dee

Mike Budny 
Twitter: @kherriage

Thursday
Jan222015

Financial Frankenstein is On the Prowl

The ECB just announced their own version of US style QE, and the news is big….USD $1.4 trillion in QE between now and September 2016.

As I’ve been predicting, “the ECB will surpass $1 trillion in QE before all is said and done”…and low and behold, they went big right out of the gate.

You know what this means, yes? Like the US FED, it is now a near certainty that the ECB’s QE program will surpass $2 trillion by the end of 2016…because once central banks start down this path, they ALWAYS play “go big or go home”.

Folks….central banks don’t like to lose…especially in today’s “I’m gonna get mine…hyper politically motivated banking world”. As I’ve been saying, this news will be big for stocks globally and it will drive stocks higher in the US as well.

Also, and its broken record time again, this news is INCREDIBLY bullish for precious metals and the miners…oil of course as well. Gold is trading through $1300/oz and silver is up even more…last trade now at $18.35.

With the world soon to be awash in fresh central bank fiat money (ECB QE), we can expect to see shadow investment groups plow investment capital back into oil…their new pseudo currency shortly. Will oil scream back to $100 barrel? Well, yes eventually...and likely much more (on the back of coming currency inflation). But in the short term, we are only interested in what happens over the next few weeks/months.

By the way, if my prediction for higher oil is wrong, it will tell us something very, very important. If oil ceases to move with hundreds of billions in fresh quantitative easing, it will be direct evidence that QE is in fact no longer working. Remember, according to central bankers and the worlds financial leaders, our biggest problem is “deflation” rather than “inflation”. This is hogwash of course…we see direct evidence of inflation all around us in the things that we are forced to buy on a daily basis (food, rent, electricity, etc).

Instead, when you hear the powers that be warn about the dangers of deflation, just know that they are actually talking about the velocity of money and more specifically, the velocity of debt. Without increasing levels of money supply (m1, m2 and m3) and fresh debt origination/liquidity, the banking/monetary system as we know it is doomed to implosion. This is why you will continue to hear “deflationary concerns” from our criminal cabal of bankers…all the while, fresh trillions in fiat currency are being printed and distributed globally…which is the very definition of “actual” inflation.

As I’ve written since 2009, Central Bank easy money, fiat currency printing is merely a sugar high, and once they stop IV’ing it directly into the body, withdrawal symptoms kick in HARD. For the millionth time (it feels like), let me repeat this most important point: Until the world experiences a systemic financial collapse…complete with stagflation/hyperinflation and a global currency/equity/debt implosion…central banks globally will continue with their Frankenstein creation called Quantitative Easing.

But we aren’t there yet. Instead, central bankers throughout the world are gearing up for further rounds of massive and coordinated global QE. Soon, we will see announcements from Europe, Japan, China, Russia, etc…and yes…we will hear FED Chair Janet Yellen say the same thing; “unfortunately, the world’s economies are not yet to the point where we can cease QE and begin raising interest rates.” It’s coming…only a question of when, rather than if.

Of course, we know that in the long term, QE will fail...it’s phony, it’s manipulative and it’s Keynesian monetary policy at its core...meaning one thing...it's nothing more than a temporary sugar high, destined for total and complete failure.

But what if you're a committed liberal/progressive, Keynesian believer...you might say "But Kip, it sure seems to have worked so far. I mean, the US stock market has doubled since QE in the US began, so it must have done something right." 

To that I would say "to the naked eye this might be a fair point. Yes, QE has helped stock prices to move higher, but lets not forget that the pre-crash 2007 high in the Dow was just over 14,000. With trillions in QE from the FED (beginning in 2009), it took a full four years to simply reclaim those pre-crash levels. Sure, the Dow has tacked on another 3500 points in the past two years, but at what cost?

We know that the real unemployment numbers are at minimum 14%, based on a labor force participation rate that reveals more than 93 million Americans have left the labor force forever. And of course we know that the middle class is being destroyed, with the ranks of the poor exploding higher, as evidenced by the 50 million Americans on food stamps…our modern day soup kitchen/bread line….and disability claims that have swelled to levels never before seen…more than 11 million in the US that will never work again, but that will remain on taxpayers payrolls til death.

History will be the ultimate decider on this issue, as always. However, as history has shown time and again, Keynesian monetary policy has 100% of the time resulted in failure, with the largest failure (before now) being the decade long Great Depression…which ended only because of WWII…the savior for massively failed monetary policy (regardless of what FDR revisionist historians might try and tell you).

Folks, I tend to watch and read pretty much everything that is said or published about the markets, and have yet to see anyone make the case that I began making after QE ended in the US and oil started its collapse. The point I’ve been making is that in June 2014 the FED announced that their massive bond-buying program (QE), which was responsible for massive money printing and debt purchases (more than $3.5 trillion) would end in October ’14. And, when did oil prices start dropping like a rock?? You got it…in the same month they made the announcement that they would officially be ending QE…June.

From the beginning of QE (2009), oil had become a pseudo currency for the ultra elite…a place where the wealthiest shadow banks and hedge funds could park money, leverage it up 30-50 times and then invest in stocks, bonds, derivatives and real estate. This has been a massive component of THE investment theme for these past 5-6 years. But now of course, QE in the US is over (well, officially anyway), and oil has fallen a shocking 60%...since that exact announcement from our FED.

KNOW THIS: THE BIGGEST WINNER IS….

Precious metals have now started their bull market of bull markets. Question; why do you think gold/silver are ramping higher while oil is collapsing? During the entire cycle of the past decade or so, oil and gold/silver have moved in the same direction, whether up or down.

But take a look at what’s happened since November ’14, which is when the collapse in oil prices really kicked in. Since that time, gold has jumped 15% to $1300/oz, while oil has dumped more than 40%...all the way to $45/barrel, where it trades this morning. This is a monumental divergence! It’s also making gold/silver THE smart money trade of trades.

Keep this fact in mind: As the first “major” move higher in miners kicked in (December 2008), the miners jumped 141% in less than 18 months.

Now…with a return to stagflation/hyperinflation…which I see happening inside of 24 months in the US (it’s already starting in Europe, China, Russia, Venezuela…just to name a few), the corresponding move higher in gold/silver will shock most of the so-called experts….just not us. As gold rockets to $10,000/oz and silver screams past $150/oz, mining stocks will help many reading this right now to add millions to your investment accounts.

The VRA Trading and Investing System will tell us exactly when to act on our new positions…keep some powder dry and be ready to act (both stocks and options). 

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip

 

 

Thursday
Jan152015

VRA Update: Muslim Extremists and Our Future

With Paris under attack last week from Sunni Muslim extremists, the markets were extremely volatile. We have now entered what I believe might soon evolve into the next world war. The 4-5 various Muslim extremist terrorist groups...all radicalized Sunni's...believe only in Sharia law, martyrdom and conversion or death to all Jews and Christians. They control huge amounts of territory in the Middle East and throughout Northern Africa, with funding from multiple Mid East sources.

While the world was watching terror in Paris, quite likely the most brutal of all Sunni Muslim extremists, Boko Haram, is widely reported to have slaughtered 2000 innocent villagers in Nigeria.

Together, these separate but still closely connected Sunni terrorists are working towards one common goal; a global caliphate that eventually rules the entire world, all under Sharia law.

Make no mistake about it...left unchecked, these groups could soon make up the most serious threat to our way of life since Hitler and WW2.

These radical Muslims truly believe that by killing innocent civilians and then dying for their faith, they will enter heaven and pass go right to their 72 virgins in waiting. The first person that actually said this out loud had to have been laughed out of his community. Delusional doesn’t even come close to describing beliefs such as these, but as history has shown time and again, desperate people breed desperate ideologies. 

It remains to be seen whether or not leading countries have the stomach to do what's necessary to destroy these groups before they take down multiple aircraft with shoulder fired missiles, of which thousands are still missing from Libya, or worse, detonate a dirty radioactive bomb in a major European or American city, but in addition to the black swan events represented by central bank money printing, Sunni Muslims are right at the top of this list.

Just another powerful reason to own gold and silver.

However, from an investment point of view, the most important things to keep in mind are:

1) The markets trend is still higher (short, medium and long term).

2) The Fed will not raise interest rates anytime soon, and likely will not do so at all this year. "Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed" remains the dominant theme for smart money investors.

3) Precious metals and the miners are breaking out and the bull market looks to be back. At roughly $22.80 the miners (as gauged by mining ETF GDX) will break its 200-day moving average and at that time, billions in fresh capital will flood into this sector. As I have been saying, I am 80% certain that the bull market is back in this group…the profits that we are going to make going forward will be stunning.

4) The next big market moving news will come from Europe, Japan, China, Russia and South America. My best inside sources are now telling me that the amount of central bank intervention and fiat currency printing will be staggering. Look for this news to go public beginning as early as the coming week.

I continue to look for higher stock markets around the world over the next 4-5 months before we ultimately see a 10-20% correction. The markets love to climb a wall of worry, and with fears of terrorism, crashing oil prices and increased financial volatility; I expect that this stock market will continue to climb that wall. This is the contrarian view and in my mind, the correct one.

Any number of Black Swan events could take the markets down 20%...and in a hurry...but this looks to be a 2016 story.

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip Herriage

VRAletter.com 

Wednesday
Dec102014

VRA Update: Oil Has Dropped 40% in 5 Months - Bankruptcy and Calamity Awaits

I've received a number of questions about the recent 40% collapse in oil prices....most asking if this is the time to buy, and if so, what specific companies, ETF's or options would I recommend.

First, let me be clear. Oil prices are headed much lower before they find a bottom. My best guess is that we are headed into the low to mid-50's minimum....and they could easily break $50/barrel. This is going to get really ugly for the higher priced producers...which by the way, includes just about all of the shale, unconventional E&P companies that have also been responsible for the majority of US job growth over the last 5 years (a point that almost everyone is missing).

Importantly, most experts are forgetting the primary reason that oil prices started their slide in June. To understand this is to also understand where oil prices are headed going forward. The primary culprit? The end of QE by the Federal Reserve. Sure...QE officially ended in October...but because the markets anticipate 3-6 months out, oils decline began in advance in June, as the smart money understood exactly what was about to take place.

Of course, OPEC's decision not to cut production, and the global economic slowdown are playing their roles as well...just know that anticipation of the end of QE by the FED was the primary instigator of lower oil prices. I've written many times over the years that oil has also become a pseudo currency by the largest shadow banks and hedge funds globally, and of course, they know the FED's actions long before they announce them to the sheeple public.

Going forward, anyone interested in making money in the energy space must also understand the personality of a bursting bubble. Remember the dot-com crash in 2000....or how about the real estate crash of 2008? These two recent examples give us a solid playbook for the crash in the oil patch. Namely, when a bubble bursts, prices almost always fall further than they should....just as they rose higher than they should have in the first place. And...a "real" recovery can take years...in fact, it almost always does. Another case in point? The correction in gold/silver/mining stock prices over the last 3 years...something the VRA (and Subscribers) remembers all too well.

My biggest concern going forward is the following; None of the so-called experts on Wall Street are freaking out over this massive collapse in oil prices...and this level of total complacency should be a huge red flag to anyone really paying attention. Know this; if oil prices trade in the $50-60 range for more than 1-2 months (and we are at $62 this morning), the level of bankruptcy announcements from the oil patch will be staggering. And remember, as much as 40% of ALL high yield debt that's been issued in the past 3-5 years has been issued by, guess who....these same highly aggressive, highly indebted, shale gas/oil explorers and producers. Hundreds of billions in junk bonds are at risk of default...anyone that tells you otherwise is clueless to what I believe could a major economic event just around the corner.

By the way, if you're looking for another outlier as to why precious metals and PM miners are beginning to ramp higher, these coming bankruptcies in energy are absolutely a contributor. In fact, the next banking crisis could be just around the corner, as bankrupt energy co's put massive pressure on banks balance sheets, which could easily result in the next wave of calls for taxpayer funded bank bailouts (and yes, I want to puke at the thought of this as well). 

Folks...this is exactly why gold has been the only true currency for 6000 years...funny money (all global fiat currencies) has a perfect, 100% track record of default...something you will NEVER hear on CNBC or other MSM outlets.

Bottom line; it's nowhere close to time to buy oil and gas stocks (outside of my stock of the century). However, if we can get a panic sell-off in this group...ideally just prior to the coming massive QE from overseas...we could get an incredible buying opportunity in specific names in the oil patch within the next 1-2 months. Only time will tell...just know that I will be watching...and waiting.

In the meantime....got gold/silver/mining stocks?? They are up big again this morning...while the overall market is getting clocked. Talk about "another" major reason to be bullish...

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip    

VRALETTER.COM

 

Friday
Nov212014

VRA Update: Just In Case You Needed a Reminder - Life Today VS Where Life SHOULD Be Today

Quick question: Where would the US economy be...growth/health wise...without the FED's Quantitative Easing (QE) of the last 5 years? In other words, without the more than $4 trillion in freshly printed fiat currency by the US Central Bank ($15 trillion + globally)...money that will soon come back to all of us as rampant inflation first, followed by hyperinflation...what kind of economic shape would the US be in today??

Answer: In 2009-2010, the initial hit to the economy, real estate, and to stock markets would have brutal....no question about it. Without the FED's interference, there is zero doubt in my mind that panic in the investment markets would have ensued...far worse than it was. MANY weak banks would have failed...same thing with many of Wall Street's gambling investment houses. Both groups used massive amounts of leverage... 30-100 to 1....which means THEY SHOULD HAVE FAILED. Instead, they were rewarded with taxpayer bailouts through the $700 billion TARP (troubled asset relief program). 

END RESULT: Each of the monied, criminalized financial groups that were at the time considered "Too Big to Fail", are now 100%+ LARGER than before 2008...and would have either failed completely or been forced into mergers with healthier companies. To steal a title from Little River Band, this would have been a very "Cool Change".  In addition, any honest investigation of the smarmy miscreants in each of these financial behemoths would have found unrivaled levels of financial criminality. And, just as Iceland acted to put their own banking criminals in jail for 10-30 year sentences, an "honest" US legal system would have done the same on our shores. Instead....there have been ZERO convictions...freaking ZERO! Just in case you had any doubts that the fix was in...now you know for certain. All made possible by your and my tax dollars...thank you very much.

Without the FED's ongoing manipulation, yes...US real estate prices would have dropped 30-60%. Oh wait...that's exactly what DID happen! So....there would have been ZERO difference in our real estate/housing situation throughout the US. In fact, this situation would have allowed "honest" buyers of real estate...you and me... to swoop in and buy phenomenal pieces of real estate/homes at true "value level prices". Instead, here's what HAS taken place. These same banking and Wall Street criminal masterminds took OUR taxpayer funded bailout money...combined with the FED's ZIRP (zero interest rate policy...as in ZERO percent interest rates for 5 years) and bought 90% of available real estate right at the very bottom. Sure...if you acted quickly, you could have also picked up some deals...but pretty much only if you were an expert at real estate already. If not....too late...the big boys took it all. Scam < Understatement.

Finally....what about the stock market and the jobs market? History is VERY clear on this subject...so this is a really simple answer. In past economic shocks, history shows time and again, that WITHOUT government/FED intervention,  economic shocks like these are OVER in 6-12 months...with an incredibly strong recovery following that lasts for years...in other words, a REAl recovery...not this crappy, negative growth (trust me, the real numbers are negative) economy we all face today. 

So...yes, the stock market may have dropped by more than 50% and the unemployment rate may have spiked to 20%. Wait....again, this is EXACTLY what did happen! 

But folks, jus think for a moment about the type of economy and overall US we would have had today...without all the trillions in new debt and fiat currency that we will be faced to deal with through the coming Greatest Global Depression. 

Dealt with honestly and with character (what we do when no one is looking) these same criminals would be in jail, where they belong. We would have seen an economic revival for the record books....with REAL jobs, rather than "money jobs" that create nothing, harm the world far more than any fictional global warming ever possibly could (another Wall Street creation by the way....I witnessed it first hand on Wall Street), and, best of all... the good people of the US would run things going forward.

Instead....well, we know what we are left with...the stench is beyond putrid.

Anyone with a Forest Gump IQ or higher knows deep down exactly where this is headed. 

GOT GOLD????

For those that are prepared....wow....talk about massive levels of never before seen opportunity. 

And folks....deep down...this is what the VRA has always been about. Always will be.

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip

Wednesday
Oct152014

VRA Ebola Update: Exact Steps to Take and Participate in 375% Returns

Before we get to this most important Ebola update, let's take a quick look at exactly what the VRA predicted 3 weeks ago (Sept. 19th), as the VRA was the ONLY Wall Street expert or Investment Newsletter to call the EXACT top in the stock market…and did so within 5 minutes of the all-time high.

**Sept. 19, 2014

"First, Alibaba (BABA) just opened, and is currently trading at $93/share....but it reached almost $100 right after the open. Just stunning....

I believe this marks a significant top in the overall market....right here right now. The Russell 2000 is getting hit hard, while the overall market holds on to slim gains. Make sure you own SRTY (3 x bearish ETF for Russell 2000)....the breakdown in the broader market does not look healthy. Have you seen housing stocks....the chart looks as poor as it gets....big rounding top. Same thing throughout the mid-cap to small-cap market....this tells us that the smart money is heading for the exits. It's time to be a contrarian folks....its time to make some money on the downside….”

Since this time, VRA Subscribers are up a full 375%!

********

VRA One-Time Offer: If you would like to participate in the 375% gains that VRA Subscribers have picked up in just the last 3 weeks, make sure and take advantage of our one-time offer at the end of this update. After Friday, it will be gone.

 

VRA Ebola Update – Exact Steps to Take Now

The markets are getting clocked today....at day lows right now with losses of more than 440 points in the Dow (2.75%)

While no one should personally panic about Ebola at this point, unless of course you are infected or at risk of infection, here's the reality of what's about to take place: 

1) Air travel and most mass transportation is about to ground to a halt. Airline stocks are ramping lower but this is just the beginning. More on this later in update. 

2) Hospital, and health clinic workers, may soon cease going to work...not all or most certainly, but a large enough percentage that it will be a very large problem. 

3) Energy prices will continue to collapse. 
Just a few minutes ago I heard an airline head ask "how many Typhoid Marys do we now have among us"...wow. The most at-risk group in energy? Every green energy stock....solar, wind, etc.....with oil prices about to plummet even further, the rational for green energy makes even LESS sense. Watch as FSLR and SCTY collapse in price.

4) Folks...the move lower in stocks is just now starting. This is going to take us at least 10% lower quickly on all major exchanges...and likely much more. 

Best moves to make, right now:

1) Keep buying **** and ****...they are the very best ways to profit....and are up another 28% combined today alone, and a full 200% in the last 3 weeks (for Subscribers only).

 

2) Options premiums have exploded.....making any new put recommendations highly risky. 

 

3) Those that want a pure play on Ebola risks? You can short Southwest Air (symbol LUV). It's down just 18% from its annual high and still 80% higher from annual lows. LUV could easily fall below $20 (last trade $29). 

 

4) But again...**** and **** are our smartest moves, financially speaking. Plus of course, the continued purchase of precious metals.

 

5) Finally, your best non financial move? Avoid air travel at pretty much all costs...apologies if this appears as a scare tactic...but no way anyone in my family is flying until we know MUCH more about how this virus is actually transmitted. 

 

VRA ONE TIME OFFER:

Purchase a full year of the VRA at 90% off the annual fee….this offer is good until this Friday.

Go to: VRALETTER.COM

Use Promo Code: verticalpromo

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading. Stay safe, stay smart. 

 

Kip Herriage