"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra: Buy Gold and China. Sell short on pretty much everything else. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

Twitter: @kherriage

Karl Bessey

Mary Dee

Mike Budny 
Twitter: @kherriage

Monday
Apr272015

VRA Update: USD, Precious Metals and Miners On the Move - This is Why and What You Should Do

Make sure and pay attention to what is happening right now in the USD (US dollar) and precious metals (and overall market). We are entering a potential "cycle reversal"...the exact reversal that I have been writing about...and should the move confirm, you will want to make sure you are positioned for significant profits in the coming days and weeks.

Within an hour of the market open today, precious metals and the miners began to ramp higher. Within minutes, gold was up more than $20/oz, and silver up more than double that in percentage terms.

Gold is last quoted at $1204 (+2%) with silver at $16.40 (+3.8%).

Of course, the miners moves are accelerated...that's the beauty and beast of the leverage they provide...but this morning we get beauty, with GDX (mining ETF) up 3.8% at $20.10. The question is, will this finally be the move that takes precious metals and miners into bull market confirmed status?

The Answer May Arrive This Week

All eyes are of course on this weeks FED meeting, but the chart below is what the worlds best investors are watching most closely...the US Dollar.

Below is a one year chart of the USD (in blue), along with a one year chart of gold. As much as anything, this chart makes the strength in USD and corresponding weakness in gold, crystal clear.

BUT...take a closer look at the action over the last 45 days or so in the dollar. This is what I have focused on in recent updates, and if the pattern of "rolling over" in the USD continues, near record USD longs could quickly begin to reverse their positions. And yes...this continues to be my forecast.

The fundamentals for a massive move higher in precious metals and the miners have been in place for some time. We may find out this week that the price action finally confirms that the bull market is back.

Here's the chart...we can clearly see how the trend line in the USD is breaking down, along with a corresponding move higher in gold.

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip

~In Gmail select: Always display images from kip@vraletter.com~

Thursday
Apr162015

VRA Alert: Make Sure You are Positioned - Major Cycle Reversal

Corporate earnings are coming in, and the early read for me is “surprisingly solid”. And remember folks, this is the quarter where a combination of bad weather and a strong US Dollar (USD) were supposed to hit companies and hit them hard.

There is one area where hits from a strong USD have been felt. Take a look at the following commodities since their 2011 highs…

 

Commodity 

Current Price

Recent High

Change

 

Iron Ore

$59.00

$195.00

-70%

 

Silver

$15.53

$48.55

-68%

 

WTI Crude

$44.88

$113.39

-60%

 

Corn

$358.50

$839.50

-57%

 

Natural Gas

$2.69

$6.21

-57%

 

Brent Crude

$55.24

$126.26

-56%

 

Hogs

$65.21

$133.06

-51%

 

Soy Beans

$962.00

$1,790.00

-46%

 

Uranium

$39.25

$73.00

-46%

 

Wheat

$504.50

$912.50

-45%

 

Copper

$5,882.00

$10,064.00

-42%

 

Platinum

$1,121.00

$1,884.00

-40%

 

Gold

$1,153.57

$1,874.72

-38%

 

Southern Pine Trees

$395.00

$499.00

-21%

 

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

What a “Falling” Dollar Could Mean for Commodities

Since July 2014, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen more than 25%. That's an incredible move for any currency. The rapidly rising dollar sent commodity prices falling just as fast...

The chart below shows the inverse relationship between the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (that tracks 19 commodities) and the dollar. Since many commodities are denominated in dollars, the price of those commodities has fallen as the dollar has gained strength.

As I’ve written extensively, I am looking for a major move higher in precious metals…and we are well positioned here with our current positions. Remember, gold shorts are at an all time high.....Euro Shorts/Dollar Longs are at an all time high. NOW is the time to be positioned as a perfect storm short squeeze develops.The chart above is going to reverse completely.

And...for all of you that have bought into the argument that precious metals prices will fall in the face of rising interest rates, think back to the late 1970's, and more recently, the 2002-2005 time frame. Gold and silver skyrocketed as interest rates increased...this time would be no different.

While it’s too early that say that the move higher in the USD is over, its not too early to take action on companies that will benefit greatly from a weaker dollar.

Make sure you are positioned accordingly...

VRA Subscribers just booked another 112% profit today. Incredibly, close to 70% of the public wants nothing to do with the stock market. Of course, after the Dow Jones has jumped another 30%, they will all be jumping in...and that's when we will be selling.

Kip Herriage - VRAletter.com

@kherriage (Follow me on Twitter)


Saturday
Apr112015

VRA CYCLE ALERT: 488% in Profits - By May 1st

Over the past 14 months the VRA Trading & Investing System has produced more than 1200% in profits for Subscribers. Now…the best is yet to come.

“Kip, if I had known that your last 8 recommendations were going to more than quadruple the size of my brokerage account, I would have invested MUCH more than I did. Still, I cannot complain about $48,000 in profits. THANK YOU SIR! GT – Rhode Island”

My 30 years of investment and trading experience has taught me the single most investing lesson of all - You MUST Buy Low and Sell High.

I know…this sounds ridiculously simple…but you would be amazed at the number of experienced investors that get caught up in the emotions of investing. And it costs them dearly.

VRA ALERT: I write this brief alert to you today to draw your attention to the two most important cycle events that I follow…and they are BOTH taking place between now and the end of April.

Cycle Alert #1: Precious Metals are now prepared to do something that they have not done in more than 3 ½ years. Those positioned in VRA Trading & Investing System Buy Rec’s can make more than 280% in profits.

Cycle Alert #2: The stock market trades according to two emotions; Fear and Greed.

For years, my trading system has shown my Subscribers EXACTLY how to profit from this by using the VIX Index - most commonly referred to as the “Fear Index”.

Those positioned in VRA Trading & Investing System Buy Rec’s can make more than 208% profits.

I keep things very simple for VRA Subscribers. I issue VRA Updates delivered directly into your inbox. They tell you exactly what to buy and when to buy it, and then, they tell you exactly when to sell and take profits.

The next two weeks are incredibly important “Cycle Events”. Join me and start making the kind of investment profits that you deserve to make. My target is for minimum gains of 488%. I LOVE burying Wall Street…you will too.

Kip Herriage

VRA Founder/Publisher (2003)

@kherriage (follow me on Twitter)

 

 

 

Friday
Apr102015

VRA UPDATE: PERFECT STORM BREWING FOR 1200% GAINS

VRA UPDATE: PERFECT STORM BREWING – TIME FOR 1200% PLUS GAINS - AGAIN

Each week I run every indicator and chart that the VRA Trading & Investing System is comprised of, and as I have been predicting, a perfect storm looks to be brewing. I believe those that take action will see their portfolios skyrocket over the next 6-12 months, specifically in the individual sectors and stocks that the VRA recommends.

Roughly 4 years ago I turned bullish on the stock market, and while we have seen the market move sharply higher, we have yet to see what is commonly referred to as the “blow-off phase” of this bull market. As I’ve been predicting, I believe that phase is now underway, and barring some unforeseen black swan event, a short term move higher of roughly 30% in the Dow and S&P could be right in front of us, with far greater gains available to those invested in the best sectors and stocks.

Major bull markets in equities…and yes, this one certainly qualifies…go through specific phases. A bull market begins in a sell-off crash low, which we saw in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis panic lows (March 2009, which the VRA nailed within 30 minutes), followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows over a period of several years. The final phase of major bull markets is the most explosive. Typically, bull markets like this do not end until we see real froth in the markets. Think back to 1999-2000, and the dot com melt-up in stocks, and you’ll know exactly what I am talking about. 

Based on everything that I see technically, this final move higher is now underway. These are the 10 most important indicators that the VRA Trading & Investing System follows, and importantly, the fundamentals are confirming the technicals.

Bullish Fundamentals

I write about the fundamental reasons to be bullish fairly frequently, and we covered them on our most recent VRA Global Investment Call, but let’s take a look at them all in one place.

Briefly, here are the most important fundamental reasons that tell me a major move in the markets is on the way:

One: Climbing a Wall of Worry – bull markets tend to ramp higher when the investing public is negative and under-invested. We see this exact environment now with just 35% of the public invested in stocks (versus more than 70% in 2000). Contrarians are always the biggest winners.

Two: Election Year Cycle – the 3rd year of an election year is far and away the best year to be invested in stocks.

Three: Stock Buybacks and M&A Activity – mgt teams are buying back shares of their own companies at a near record pace. In addition, favorable tax laws are taking mergers and acquisitions to all time highs. Corporate inversions, which allow co’s to base their headquarters in more tax friendly countries and pay 20-30% less in total taxes, are a major reason for this, and with the risk of this loophole closing we can look for M&A activity to grow larger still.

Four: Central Banks, QE and more than 20 countries slashing interest rates in an ongoing currency war tell us that stocks are the only place to be for your investment dollars. In addition, outright equity purchases by central banks, which has moved from conspiracy theory to conspiracy fact, tell us that we have a serious floor underneath stock prices. Any decline will be met with buying.

With interest rates at record low levels globally, where else are investors supposed to put their money??

Five: M2 Money Supply – with money supply growing by 7.3% in the US, and rising, serious cash is being forced into the economy by the FED.  Again, “Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the FED” continues to be the theme of this bull market.

The 5 fundamental points above tell us that we WILL see a blow-off phase in stocks…and now is the time to be positioned for the move higher.

VRA PORTFOLIO NOTES: 

One: Precious Metals – it’s looking more and more like the VRA caught the November 2014 lows in precious metals and mining stocks. Not only have we seen a double bottom in gold, but mining stocks are giving us a very important chart pattern of higher highs and higher lows…exactly what technical analysts expect when a major move higher is beginning. Over the last two weeks, the Dow has increased by 1.3%, however the GDX (mining stock index) is up a very impressive 12.5%. 

Folks…talk about a perfect storm for precious metals. With 3.5 years of lower gold and silver prices, a huge number of mining co’s can no longer afford to explore. A combination of rising mining costs (thank you core inflation) plus falling gold/silver prices, have given us the perfect scenario for the next great bull market in PM’s and the miners. WE WILL MAKE FORTUNES IN PM’s AND VRA RECOMMENDED MINING STOCKS GOING FORWARD.

Two: Bull Market Positions. With my call for a big move higher in the overall stock market, make sure you own our top ranked selections. Our gains of 1200% from the past 14 months will be repeated...and more.

Important Point: Going forward, the VRA will be more aggressive in taking profits in these positions. Stay tuned for more info, but here’s the game plan. As the market gets overbought, we will look to take profits more frequently…then buy our positions back once they pull back in price. This gives us the opportunity for 200-300% gains in selected positions each year, rather than 50-100% gains.

The most explosive stage of this bull market is in front of us. Make sure you are positioned for another year of 1200% plus gains.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…make it a great week.

Kip

@kherriage (follow me on Twitter)

If you would like to subscibe to the VRA and save more than 70% off of the annual price, email me at: verticalresearch@mindspring.com

 

 

 

Saturday
Mar212015

VRA UPDATE: WEDNESDAYS CENTRAL BANK INSANITY – NOW WE KNOW EXACTLY HOW THE END GAME BEGINS

As covered on this weeks VRA Call (link at end of update) it is now clear that the FED cannot raise rates and that the global currency war just moved to DEFCON 3. And…for the time being…the stock market will continue to ramp higher. 

VRA PredictionWednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve NOT to raise interest rates has provided us with THE blueprint to exactly how our financial system will come crashing down. Market watchers will refer back to the events of the last 60 days, and in hindsight, will point to the FED’s actions during this period as a “hat tip” to the economic carnage that would come to pass in the weeks and months to come. 

Folks…what I am laying out for you here is not journalistic hyperbole. Everything that I have witnessed over the last 30 years has led me to the conclusion that we now discovering exactly how the end game begins…and yes…it has begun.

Stay with me as I was I walk you through these recent events, along with why the FED’s decision yesterday not to raise interest rates in the near future will lead to this eventuality. What I am reporting here is not being reported anywhere else, at least as far as I know, but everything that I see points to the conclusion that I have come to

One: Over the last 60 days, the US Dollar (USD) has soared in value, when compared to every major global currency. This 20% plus move higher in the USD (versus a basket of weighted foreign currencies) was the single most dramatic move in the history of currency markets, and I believe an indication of exactly what is about to come. Remember, the currency markets are the largest and most liquid markets on the planet, so these kinds of historic swings were unheard of in the past.

Two: The move higher in the USD picked up serious steam following the employment report for February (reported on 3/6). Following this report, the markets “hunch” became the markets “certainty”…namely, that the FED would announce that yes, they in fact would raise interest rates in the near future…most likely in June. But…wait a minute.

Three: What transpired after the February employment report proceeded to scare the sh*t out of Janet Yellen, the FED, and Central Banks and bankers all over the world. The sheer power of the unprecedented move higher in the USD caught them completely off guard…sending shockwaves through the markets.

Four: Everything culminated in Wednesdays (in)action by the FED. Instead of raising rates for the first time in 9 years, the FED backed off completely…even indicating that it may be well into the second half of 2015 before they considered doing so.

The Quadrillion $ Question: If the FED cannot increase interest rates in the US by just .25% (that’s one quarter of one percent)…again, for the first time in 9 years…without the USD skyrocketing in value so dramatically that it throws the entire world into turmoil, then what’s going to happen when the FED is “forced” to raise interest rates in order to head off rising inflationary pressures?

Getting the picture now??

Folks, we’ve just been granted a sneak preview of the systemic turbulence that’s headed our way. It’s crystal clear (to me, at least) that this is how the end game will begin. The FED is now caught between a very large rock and an even harder place. They cannot increase rates without damaging the economy (which an ultra strong USD would certainly do, as our exports become too expensive). 

However, in the very near future they will come face to face with the reality of currency inflation, which we already see showing up in 8.3% m2 money flow statistics…which will VERY quickly evolve into price inflation. Once that Genie is out of the bottle, Janet Yellen’s FED will have very few (if any) tools to deal with runaway currency strength.  

And yes…for those that are wondering…this is the exact situation that causes precious metals to skyrocket in value…even while the USD ramps higher at the same time. History will tell us very clearly that the global currency war led to the greatest bull market in the history of precious metals. 

Bottom line: For now, nothing has changed in my forecasting. The stock market has quite a bit of room to run before we get to DEFCON 1. The VRA Trading & Investing System continues to target a 20-30% move higher in the overall market, between now and the end of 2016. But now, we have the early indicator for a major market reversal that I have been looking for…we’re just not there yet…so let’s make money on the upside while it’s there to be made.

Significant Move Higher in Precious Metals and the Markets

As I have been writing, the dramatic move higher in the USD was overdone…and by a long shot. The FED’s decision caused the USD to tank, and foreign currencies like the Euro to make a very important recovery.

Just as the machines and robots can force markets to one extreme, their reversal of positions then causes a violent move in the counter direction…and this is exactly what we saw in yesterday’s action. 

Only time will tell if the FED has the power to stabilize the action in the currency markets, because if not, we are likely looking at the cause for the next black swan event. 

Finally (for now), overnight I ran every screen that the VRA Trading and Investing System uses, and assuming that the FED can “control” USD strength, we should see a final bottom in the oil markets within the next 30-45 days (or less). The massive amount of QE, currency inflation and equity manipulation globally is causing huge moves higher in global equity markets…most specifically in China. Remember this most important point; from 2009 – 2014, China was responsible for more than 50% of ALL commodity demand globally. This is an incredible fact, especially when you consider that China has just 15% of the worlds population. Assuming that China’s stock market move to multi-year highs is telegraphing an acceleration in Chinese GDP, the coming recovery in oil prices could be fast and parabolic.

**For those that have an interest in beating the markets, year in and year out, along with details on exactly how the VRA produced returns of more than 1200% over the last 15 months, contact us at: verticalresearch@mindspring.com

We will give you the details on how you can save 88% off of the annual VRA Subscription rate, and participate in massive gains that we have uncovered in the coming days and weeks.

Here’s the link to this weeks VRA Call:

http://verticallegacy.com/Kip%20Global%20Call%203-17-15.mp3

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip Herriage

Publisher/Editor VRA (est. 2003)

VRAletter.com

@kherriage (twitter)