"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra: Buy Gold and China. Sell short on pretty much everything else. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

Twitter: @kherriage

Karl Bessey

Mary Dee

Mike Budny 
Twitter: @kherriage

Saturday
Feb182017

In My 31 Years, This Will Be My Best Year Ever. Come and Join Us!

In My 31 Years, This Will Be My Best Year Ever. Come and Join Us!

Hi, it’s Kip again. I’ll keep this very brief…2017 will be my best year ever in beating the markets. If you’re serious about making more money with your investing than you’ve ever experienced, take 2 minutes and keep reading. 

In just the last 2 months (from December 20th to today), my VRA Core Portfolio (which contains ALL of my recommended stocks) has a net gain of 570%, with an average gain per stock of 71%. All “time stamp” documented.

I am recommending just 8 stocks to my Members (I never recommend more than 10, at any time) and while the actual stock selections are for VRA Members only, here is exactly how each stock has performed…since just December 20th, 2016.

+201%

+122%

+36%

+91%

+183%

-13.6%

+10%

+23%

8 recommended stocks, with a total “net” gain of 570%...for an average gain of 71% per position.

Here’s an email I received just this week from a VRA Subscriber:

“Kip, after losing money in the market with my broker year after year, I have finally found the one guy that not only makes us incredible money but that actually seems to care about OUR success. 500% gains in 2 months. WOW. I read your early morning updates right when you send them out and they are by far my favorite emails of the day. My wife and I sincerely THANK YOU!”

 TK and MK, Miami, FL.

I said I would keep this brief. Many of you have followed my work for years…some for decades…now is the time to make sure you are a Member of our community. My VRA Trading & Investing System is unlike anything you’ve seen before. I know, because I created it…no one else has it…it is my propriety work.

*  Each morning I email you before the US markets open. I tell you exactly what to own, exactly what price to pay and then exactly when to sell and take profits.

* Your VRA Membership also comes with my two VRA Special Reports (“Making a Fortune in Precious Metals and Mining Stocks” and “Kip’s Stock of the Century”). My Stock of the Century is an unknown energy company with more potential than any stock I have ever discovered.  Just this week it soared 142%but that’s nothing compared to what it’s about to do.

* Your VRA Membership also comes with your private Members Site, my VRA Core Portfolio and every VRA Update that I have issued going back to 2005.

It’s my sincere hope that you’ll act on this invitation. For the next 72 hours you can join us for either 6 months or a full year, with a huge discount of 75%.

Simply go to VRALetter.com and click the “Join Us Now” tab.

1) For your 6 Month Membership, use promo code: vra6month

($495, or 75% off from $3995 web site price)

2) For your 1 Year Membership, use promo code: vragold

($998, or 75% off from $3995 web site price)

Offer is good for next 72 Hours….

We look forward to welcoming you to the VRA!  

Sincerely,  

Kip Herriage

VRA Founder/Publisher (2003)

 

 

 

 

Thursday
Feb092017

VRA Update: An Extraordinary Phone Call

While short term overbought, everything that I see is confirming that the 3 month highs we're seeing right now in precious metals are only just the beginning. The planets appear to be aligned for us. In just the last 2 months the VRA has total gains of more than 370% in our VRA Core Portfolio mining stocks.

Bu today, I have to share some details from a phone call I had with a long time VRA Subscriber from New York. "John" is a senior bank officer with one of the largest banks in the country. I assured him that I wouldn't include his real name (or the name of his bank), but everything else is as exactly as he told me.

Extraordinary Phone Call

"John", my banker friend in New York (not his real name, but he is from NY) has been with his "monstrosity of a bank" (his words, not mine) for more than 20 years. He started with them right out of college and loves what he does for a living. I know this to be true because he's one of the few people I know that puts in as many hours as I do. It's his passion...and he's very, very good at it.

John no longer works with retail customers...he's high end commercial/Wall Street lending only these days...but because of his senior position, he sees all the reports. In a nutshell, here's what John told me today:

First, the Trump phenomenon has already had a huge impact on the level of business they are doing. In his words, "the change was like night and day". John told me that within just a few days of the election, top CEO's, CFO's and senior company leaders were on the phone to them, asking what their options were to increase the amounts they could borrow. Again, in John's words, "it was like somebody put the word out on CNN or on the cover of the NY Times...the economy is back...and everyone just wanted to get going, now."

Second, John told me that his bank "pretty much immediately began freeing up lending". We already knew that banks have been sitting on record levels of cash...it's now clear these excess reserves are about to start working their way back into the US and global economy (roughly 1/3 of John's business is with international clients).  

I asked John if this means we're headed back to "fog a mirror" loans...2004-2006, easy money credit without the ability to pay it back, should the economy go into the tank again. His candid answer was "no...well, not yet anyway". 

He also shared details about lending approval rates, which have already jumped "significantly", just since the election.  

Finally, when I asked John "why"...exactly what does he attribute these changes to...his answer came quick: "it's all about Trump. People around here see Trump as a financial and real estate giant. If you had to pick one person to jump start the US economy and give us a chance of getting back to 4% GDP, it's this guy."

I'll be honest with you. This call absolutely blew me away. Not because I was really all that surprised to hear John say these things...but because they confirmed for me exactly why I voted for Trump. It made me feel even more like I made the right decision (not that I would have ever voted for HRC...yuck).

It also confirms the action that the VRA System has been seeing in the financials. You may remember the VRA Updates, where I included charts and analysis of the financials, back in the Spring. They were telling us back then that something big was coming in bank stocks. 

Take a look at this 1 year chart of XLF (financial ETF):

Stunning move higher since the election. And folks, know this as well; when the bank stocks get going, they tend to run for 2-3 years. This means the 20% move higher since November 8th is likely just the beginning. 

This also tells us that the global relation trade is very, very real. But it also tells us that the FED is WAY behind the curve. Unless they start raising interest rates and fast, we're about to see a level of inflation that we have not had in many, many years. 

And what sector loves inflation, more than any sector on the planet? You guessed it...precious metals. Especially when real interest rates are negative (as they are right now). Real interest rates are determined by taking the 10 year Treasury Bonds yield (currently 2.3%) and subtracting the level of inflation (CPI). 

I've never believed the BS numbers that the government gives us on inflation, showing the CPI increasing at just 2% a year. Let's assume that the real number is really 5% (still too low in my book)...this gives us a real interest rate of roughly -2.7%...and rapidly growing. This is HUGE for gold and silver! This is what the smart money is looking at...this is why precious metals and the miners are taking off...especially the ones that the VRA recommends.

And it confirms almost everything that John told me today. Look out everyone...it looks like serious growth is on tap for the US and global economy. BTW, this is also very big for oil and natural gas...coming demand could eat into energy supplies fast than just about anyone is predicting. My $70 oil target for this year could be on the low side...maybe even by quite a bit.

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip

Thursday
Jan192017

Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump. My FREE Gift to You...

Please accept my just finished book as my free gift to you. “Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump” is the follow-up to my 2011 book and will show you exactly how the US and global economies will react to President Trump’s policy of “America First”. (Hint: it won’t be all smooth sailing).

Your copy is waiting for you at: vrainsider.com


Wednesday
Dec282016

VRA Update: Struggle to Dow 20K. Repeat of 1 Year Ago? Another Reason to Love Precious Metals.

Hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas and that you have an even better New Year and 2017. 

This past Friday I wrote the last word of my second book. Waves of relief! "CrashProof Prosperity 2.0, Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump" should be out of final edits this week.

Typically this is the slowest week in the stock market...but before we decide to phone it in for the next few trading sessions, let's remember what happened at exactly this time last year.  

On 12/29/15, the Dow Jones closed at 17,720, posting solid 100 plus point gains and signaled to many that we would finish the year on a strong note and then rip and roar higher as we started 2016.

But the markets had their own game plan...

The very next day...12/30/15...the Dow struggled and wound up closing 120 points lower. And the final trading day of 2015 was even worse, wth the Dow losing 175 points. It was this loss...175 points on heavy volume for New Years week, that got everyone's attention. Then, once we kicked off 2016, it was a blood bath...the Dow lost another 280 points on 1/4/16.

Before the sell-off was over, the Dow would plummet 2000 points in just over 3 weeks. An 11.2% loss in the Dow, and losses in the Russell 2000 that would more than double the Dow's loss. 

It was a blood bath in stocks...and the VRA was perfectly positioned for it.

By the time we sold (1/14/16), our combined profits from 3 positions would total 139%.

Today, I see signs of what could well be a repeat from this time last year. Everyone has Dow 20,000 baked in the cake...market internals "might" be just strong enough to get us there. But what then?? And, if we fail to reach Dow 20K, look out below...the waves of selling pressure could be enormous. 

Know this; if the internals continue to break down, the sell off will be ugly.

Precious Metals/Miners 2017

The article below appeared on Gold-eagle.com over the weekend and its a most important one. As you'll read, gold...as a percentage of total global financial assets, today trades at a level of 9 times less than it did in 1980. Today, gold makes up just .58% of all global financial assets. Remarkable!

The VRA continues to believe that January 2016 marked the beginning of the bull market in gold, silver and mining stocks. I see the same for base metals and oil/nat gas as well. It's called the "reflation trade" and almost certainly marks the return of inflation to global economies. 

No one should be surprised...central banks around the world have been printing their currencies in reckless abandon for years...essentially since the 2008 financial crisis kicked off what historians will recognize as the beginning of "global currency wars". In fact, we see these everywhere we look today. 

And please, do not be fooled. Inflation is defined as the "printing of fiat currency". That's the Mises definition...and its the only one that has ever mattered. Keynesian economists will soon be made to look the dunces that they are, from the NY Times Paul Krugman on (you'll be able to read all about this when CPP 2.0 is released).

Here's the article on gold holdings...just another major reason to own gold, silver and the miners. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading...make it a good holiday week

Kip

 

Gold As A Percentage Of Global Financial Assets

gold forecast

In 2014 Total Global Assets Topped $105 TRILLION (i.e more than $105,000,000,000,000)

(Source: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/making-case-12000-gold-and-360-silver)

An astronomical amount by any standards. Interestingly, only a small fraction of this monumental amount has been allocated to gold investments. Here below is the record of gold investments since 1980. To be sure a brief history of gold investment demand will indubitably put our analysis into sharp perspective.

In the late 1970s the price of gold soared to the then all-time high of $800/oz…fueled by runaway inflation of that period that propelled gold investments skyward.

(Source: Moore Research Center, Inc)

The price of gold soared from about $160 in 1976 to a little over $800 in early 1980. It is imperative to note that in 1980, gold investments as a percentage of Total Global Financial Assets had reached 5.0%. Hoverer, gold investment demand then began to wane for many of the following years until the new century began in 2000…when the price of gold finally bottomed. In that year gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets had also bottomed at 0.19%.

(Chart Source:  SRSrocco Report: https://srsroccoreport.com )

By 2001 gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets began a slow methodical climb until the 2011-2012 period…when gold again make an all-time peak at over $1,900. Understandably, the price of gold then slowly began to decline in concert with the diminishing gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets (which dropped from 0.85% to last year’s 0.58%.  Think about it:  Gold investment as a percentage of Global Financial Assets were nearly 9 Times greater in 1980 than it is today. To be sure the implications and ramifications of the above are mine-boggling. Here is another chart focus on how minuscule recent gold investment is as a percentage of Global Financial Assets:

(Chart Source:  SRSrocco Report: https://srsroccoreport.com )

Gold Forecast:  In the event gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets again rises to 5.0%, it means 0.05 X 105,000,000,000,000 = $5.25 Trillion ($5.250,000,000,000) will flood into gold. This begs the question:  What might be the impact of a tsunami of increased gold investments hitting world markets?

Here Are The Estimating Rationale

  • Total global gold production is estimated at about 3,000 tonnes.
  • 3,000 tonnes is equivalent to 96,450,000 troy ounces (as there are 32,150 oz/tonne)  
  • Value of one year’s global gold production at $1,150/oz is about $110 Billion

Consequently, in the event gold investments as a percentage of Global Financial Assets again increases from 0.58% to 5.0%, the demand might explode exponentially to $5,250,000,000,000 ($5.25 Trillion).  For this reason this analyst does not dare try to predict how high the gold price will be turbocharged as a result...when this happens. 2017 looks to be a Golden Year for precious metals investors.

Wednesday
Dec212016

VRA Update: VRA System Analysis; Major Disconnects and Extreme Readings

Good Wednesday morning all. Before we get the latest VRA System update, allow me to share some personal insights on where we are today in the intersection of politics and the investment markets. Some of what I will share here is "emotion" based...and we know exactly how terrible emotion based investing can be. For example, emotional investing was dead wrong about Brexit (after 2 days of heavy selling, the markets soared higher). Of course, emotional investing has been equally dead wrong about Trump winning, with an all out assault on 18 fresh market highs. 

In each case...and there are many, many other examples we can point to out throughout history... investors that acted on the emotion of fear/greed, and that followed what the overwhelming majority "believed" would be the most likely move in the markets, turned out to stone cold, dead wrong. I have fallen into this trap many times over the years...and each time I feel like a freaking moron for having done so. Human nature can be a bitch to overcome...even when I am staring at my VRA System screens each and every bloody day.

My most recent (and painful) example of having missed by a country mile was Brexit. Within 36 hours of the vote to leave the UK, the VRA System was flashing 95% oversold in the broad markets (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000). I should have been ALL OVER these readings, encouraging all VRA Subscribers to go 100% long bullish leveraged ETF's.  

But I did not. I missed it. And I suck for missing it. I apologized to you then and I apologize again today. Simply no excuse for falling into "fear mode" when I should have recommended aggressive action on the long side. 

I made a promise to myself then that I would not make that mistake again. Let me add that the election of Trump was a bit different...the markets never reached anything close to the levels of oversold that we saw from Brexit...but the reaction has been nearly identical...the markets have soared higher (and I have been bullish on the markets since April).

It's with this recent history of Kip missing one of the most obvious of situations (Brexit buy) that I present the following to you this morning. What we are seeing are extreme readings among highly interconnected investments. As you'll see, the VRA System sees the potential for some dramatic reversals...reversals that could bring high levels of volatility and near immediate reversals in the following sectors:

1) S&P 500

As you can see below, the SPX is trading not only near record territory but is highly extended, trading at 2% above its 200 dma. May not sound like a lot, but for the worlds largest equity index, it's a large premium. Selling pressures are building and the RSI has reached extreme levels. However, we have yet to turn down through either the 5 day ema or the 10 day dma, meaning that it is too soon to go short the SPX.

 

2) Russell 2000

With the R2K, we see a much different story from the SPX. The R2K is a full 16% above its 200 dma...very close to the largest premium of the past 10 years plus. Other measurements (RSI, MFI, MACD) confirm that this index has almost certainly run too far too fast. The R2K has also benefited greatly from a sharply rising USD (almost always bullish for small caps as they do most business in the US, versus large cap multinationals that depend far more on exports). The R2K, based on any/all available history that we can find, is ripe for a correction.

3) US Dollar

This is where I see things as being most interesting. The 10 year chart below of the USD is pretty remarkable. As of today, the USD is 7% above its 200 dma. Again, compared to the R2K, it may not sounds like much...but it is...big time. I can find just two instances over the last 10 years where the USD has been this extended, and that was in 2008 and 2010. As you can see, the dollar surpassed its 200 dma by even larger margins...hitting as much as 13-15% above its 200 dma.

But its the action that followed these premiums that concern us today. Shortly after reaching these extremes, the USD began to reverse course. The most interestingly parallel was the 2010 rise was then met with a plummeting USD, reaching losses of 15% in less than 3 months.

Today, everyone is a dollar bull. Emotional investing...potentially at its worst.  

4) GDX (miner ETF)

As we know well, precious metals/miners have traded in the exact opposite direction of the USD. But folks, this pendulum looks to have swung much to far. GDX is now 24% under its 200 dma, a level that I can find exceeded just 1-2 times (during the 2013 sell-off of sell-offs, as the manipulators crushed PM's).

Before the mini-rally that took place yesterday, GDX had reached 92% oversold...extreme oversold levels. Should the USD begin to reverse, the snap back move higher in PMs and the miners will be fierce. The smart money is using this correction to buy up cheap gold/silver/mining stocks.  

  In summation, yes...we will almost certainly hit 20k on the Dow. But what then??

The VRA System...being 100% emotion free...says that its likely time for reversals in each of the above sectors. Most specifically in the USD, R2K and GDX/PM's.  

And remember this; once a major bogey like Dow 20k is reached, past high profile bogeys have then resulted in sharp and dramatic reversals...if only for a few days to a couple of weeks. I remain long term bullish on the market...but its time for some imbalances to correct.

Finally for this morning, I continue to collect data on our end of year/seasonal trades. Once the VRA System has clear readings on our specific targets I will begin to get that info out to you. For my money, the coming spike higher in the miners are a great possibility. In addition, should the VIX (volatility ETF) continue to flash "buy", we could be taking action here as well. Ignoring emotion...acting on VRA signals.

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip