Journal Archive

"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

Subscribe to our Blog!

* indicates required

Twitter: @kherriage

Thursday
Jun132019

Locked and Loaded. Massive, Multi-Year Breakout Nearing. We Must Be Long and Strong.

Good Thursday morning all,

The move higher in stocks continues on the heels of the best week in ’19 and news of Mexico immigration/trade deal. Next up, G20 and Trump-Xi meeting, June 28–29. Does a US-China trade deal even matter? Not according to this new study…

But let's be honest…US-China trade deal is not really about trade. Never was. We’ve covered this 100’s of times since the “trade war” kicked off in January 2018. This has always been about Trump calling out China as the worlds biggest economic cheater. Not a close second. And you bet your butt it matters…here’s how we know, with certainty.

The Dow was coming off of 26,700….all time highs…when Trump first announced tariffs. Today, the DJ sits at 26,000. 700 points lower than 18 months ago. We’ve been in a massive trading range ever since, which has cost us the gains in our VRA Portfolio that we would have otherwise had. Because…and I believe this with every fiber of my being…had Trump simply looked the other way (like every president before him) the DJ would be in the 35,000 ballpark today.

But Trump isn’t like our previous presidents. Trumps in this for the long run. Trump will not stop until US GDP is back to the 5% range. Laugh if you will…bet against this man, if you will…but I am 1000% in Trumps corner…and I am an unapologetic trade hawk. Now is the time to force change in China.

In the event that you are new to the VRA, know this; the Trump Economic Miracle is only now beginning to kick in. We are perfectly positioned to crush Mr. Market, as the DJ hits 35,000 by end of 2020 and 50,000+ by end of 2024.

Let’s review the VRA’s major macro reasons to be ULTRA bullish.

ONE: Trump and the Trump Economic Miracle. Like Reagan before him, Trump knows…at the DNA level…that free market capitalism is the only way to build an economy. Cut taxes and regulations, empower the entrepreneur, then get the hell out of the way as job growth explodes, taking GDP with it. Capitalism, as the ultimate socialism destroyer. The US economy is on fire…just getting started.

TWO: The world is kicking globalism to the curb. Hard. Populism/nationalism is returning with a vengeance. Die hard, globalism. Yippee ki-yay, mofo. The world was awash in the epic failure of globalism for 3 decades. But then it all began to change; Hungary, Poland, Brexit, Trump, Brazil, Italy, Australia. The trend is clear. Elite control of open border, low wage, low GDP government is being replaced everywhere we look by the free market capitalism of populism/nationalism. True competition. Make _____ Great Again. Let the best country win. The end result? A global bull market on steroids…for possibly decades on end.

THREE: Structural abnormalities compel us to be ALL IN. The DJ is +40% from Trumps election…so how is it that everyone is bearish?? In my career, this is among the most bizarre readings I’ve ever seen. It’s also HUGELY bullish. And know this; the bulls will return. AAII bullish percentage will get back to 50–60–70% bulls. But at this rate, the DJ might hit 35–40K first. These readings make me salivate at the upside potential. Folks, this is why we have remained aggressively long….along with 9/12 VRA Investing System Screens remaining bullish.

And this structural abnormality….as we’ve talked about for more than two years, buybacks and M&A continue to rip free trading shares from the market. Supply and demand. Economics 101. Stocks MUST go higher.

VRA Market & System Update

We aggressively added to VRA Portfolio positions last week…the same day we told you that the lows were in place for the year. They are. The melt-up is on. Tech just had their best 5 day stretch in 7.5 years. This morning, the move higher continues. Asian markets soared this week…the upcoming G20 and possibility of US-China trade deal…its “buy the rumor” time.

Australian markets hit 11.5 year highs overnight. Electing a pro-growth, capitalist/populist leader, kicking far left globalism to the curb…what’s not to like? And trust me on this folks, Australian markets would not be soaring if China’s economy was falling off a cliff. No way in H.E. Double L. As much as I’ve lambasted China for their economic cheating, it doesn't mean there isn’t great value there. There is. It’s why we own and continue to add to positions. Once China bends the knee to Trump, look out above. The fact that through all of this “trade war” (its not, never has been) drama, how interesting that the Chinese market (Shanghai Stock Exchange) has remained above its 200 day moving average, in confirmed bull market territory. As much as I like the US markets, a parabolic move higher awaits for Chinese stocks.

And what would a bull market be without a wall of worry to climb? This week the news services are running this story, pretty much everywhere. Be afraid…be very afraid! A recession could drop the market 30%!

Reality check; the unemployment rate is 3.6%, there are 1 million more jobs available than people to fill them and GDP has grown 3.1% over the last 12 months. Negative news clickbait….gotta love it. But again, bull markets love climbing a wall of worry. We want to see as many of these articles as possible…along with “Trumps going to crash the economy” and “Chinese tariffs will send consumer prices soaring”. The more of these permabear, Trump-US hating stories, the higher the market will soar.

Remember last weeks AAII Sentiment Survey reading of 22% bulls and 44% bears? And the Fear & Greed Index reading of 37 (fear)? It’s “recession” articles and fear mongering, like the one today, that keeps investors afraid and out of the markets. Just remember, the AAII survey WILL get back to 50–60–70% bulls. The DJ may hit 35,000 first…but it will happen.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Sign up to Join us daily for our VRA Investing System podcast

Learn more at VRAInsider.com

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
May302019

Our Bull Market Completely Intact. European Elections Confirming a Primary Bullish VRA Marco Trend.

Good Thursday morning all.

The last 17 months have been one big, semi-expanding bullish trading range We see it in this chart of the S&P 500, from the January 2018 highs to today. The S&P 500 is now below its 2018 highs, and while we have continued to make higher highs (post 1/18), there has been no breakout. The biggie, of course, is the monster (Federal Reserve initiated) sell-off in Q4 of last year. As we start trading today, SPX is above its 200 dma (having successfully bounced off the 200 dma), as is Nasdaq, with the DJ barely beneath its 200 dma. We have also reached “extreme oversold” levels on the VRA Investing System.

We believe yesterday may have marked important lows. Put/call ratio of 1.4 with a TRIN above 2…sentiment hitting panic levels as fear-based “impeachment” selling pressure hit the markets. Importantly, however, that panic selling marked yesterdays lows as the DJ rallied 150 points off of the lows in the all-important smart money final hour of trading. Folks, and hear me on this, the odds of an impeachment proceeding against Trump is incalculably low. Should Dems move forward, it will be their official acknowledgment that they know they cannot win the presidency without a Hail Mary against Trump. Going forward, when you see the markets fall on rumors of impeachment, use that sell-off as a buying opportunity.

Based on the VRA System as long as the Leading Economic Indicators are positive, we have little reason to be concerned about the economy. Again, we sit at 9/12 screens positive.

European Elections Confirm Globalism in Decline

More than decline really…the abject failure that is globalism is being routed. The long list below of recently elected populist/nationalist leaders makes a primary (bullish) macro point of the VRA’s crystal clear; Globalism, for 3 decades, has been great for countries like China and for the failed experiment to benefit the elites and open borders big business advocates that is the European Union. But today, the global economy is (powerfully) transitioning back to populism, as the public elects leaders that have their own country's best interests at heart.

For more than 3 years, this has been a primary bullish macro theme of the VRA. As countries transition away from manipulated globalism, the global bull market…which is well underway today…will continue to pick up steam, bringing with it what may well be a multi-decade era of peace and prosperity.

>90% of the worlds largest and most important equity markets are in “bull market confirmed status”. Imagine what our stock markets will do when global trade deals are fully implemented. Lower tariffs, true free trade, let the best company/country win. Hugely bullish macro trend.

VRA Market and System Bottom line: the global bull market is absolutely intact. We’ve had a modest 5–6% correction off of all-time highs. This is a buying opp in advance of the next advance to new ATH, which includes meeting our targets of DJ 35,000 by the end of 2020 and DJ 50,000+ by end of Trump's second term. The VRA System remains at 9/12 screens bullish.

Look at it this way; What’s the biggest concern that investors have today? Without question, it's US-China trade worries. Now, what is second? What…can't think of a second issue that has your really worried?

Wall Street’s best can’t either. We’ll continue to use dips to add to VRA Buy Rec positions.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Sign up to Join us daily for our VRA Investing System podcast

Learn more at VRAInsider.com

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
May232019

US-China Trade Morphing into Economic War….one that China Will Lose badly.

Good Thursday morning all.

Our major U.S. indexes opened lower this morning as the U.S. administration is applying maximum pressure on China via attempts (along with US allies) to essentially shut Huawei down. Huawei is huge. As the largest telecommunications manufacturer on the planet and second largest manufacturer of smartphones (behind Samsung), Trump is now applying maximum leverage against the Chinese.

It’s still not a trade war…but it’s quickly morphing into all-out economic war vs China. This is a war that China cannot win. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, you may recognize what Trump is doing here. In order to get the deal you want, find the pressure points on the other side and apply maximum pressure. He has our allies around the world, through governments and corporations, backing him.

Take a few minutes and watch this interview with Oculus founder. Trump is on the side of the majority in silicon valley….we also see this in actions from Google and Microsoft.

https://twitter.com/KHerriage/status/1131230137347956737

I have been in the camp that China will not be dumb enough to repeat the country killing mistakes that Japan made, beginning in the early 90’s. If I am wrong, then China is in for a world of hurt over the next 1–2 decades. For now, Chinese markets are still up in the 20% range in 2019, with technical buy signals intact.

Heres what’s on my mind; take some time to read this article, featuring Steve Bannon’s views on US-China. Without Bannon’s help, Trump is almost certainly not the president. Bannon still has the ear of the president, as just as he does with pro-populism leaders around the world (big EU elections this week!).

As you’ll read, Bannon says this goes much deeper than trade-related issues. This is essentially about taking China down…hard.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011145/steve-bannon-says-killing-huawei-more-important-trade-deal?__twitter_impression=true

Consumer Sentiment

Check this out…with the markets just 4% from all-time highs, look at last nights AAII Investment Sentiment Survey readings. 24.7% bulls and 36.1% bears. The level of negative sentiment is amazing. And no, this is NOT a sell signal.

We’re also seeing the continuation of the pattern we’ve been discussing here of late, namely that our markets continue to rally off of their lows (on down days), rather than finishing weak into the close of trading. And our observation remains that each round of “China trade war” hysteria impacts our markets less and less. We continue to see these events as important market tells.

The VRA Investing System remains at 9/12 screens positive. Dips must be bought, in our VRA buy recommended positions.

The following chart and analytics comes from CC Market Analysis and helps to confirm our bullish market views (short, medium and long term). What we see below is a chart of the S&P 500, focusing on the technical indicator called the MACD, or the “moving average convergence divergence” indicator. We use this indicator to confirm whether our moving averages are giving a buy signal or sell signal, and it can be applied to the broad market, sectors or to individual stocks. The MACD has just completed 12 consecutive weeks in positive territory. Keep reading to see what this means…

Bottom line; 12 straight weeks in positive territory for the MACD has occurred just 16 times in the history of the S&P 500, producing an average gain of 29% over the next 2 years. Another highly bullish piece of market analytics.

Populism/nationalism beats globalism, hands down!

Finally, this past weekend's Australian elections provided more evidence that the VRA’s forecast for a global bull market on steroids is playing out, a major geopolitical theme of ours, as conservative incumbent Scott Morrison shocked the pundits by beating liberal, big government, climate alarmist Bill Shorten.

Again, the election in Australia is another important piece to the puzzle for our major macro geopolitical forecast for a long term, global bull market. Our theme is unchanged; populism/nationalism beats globalism, hands down.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Sign up to Join us daily for our VRA Investing System podcast

Learn more at VRAInsider.com

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
May162019

The Wall of Worry Bull Market Continues. VRA Emotions of Investing. Housing is BACK! Shocking Sentiment Numbers.

Good Thursday morning all.

A staple of the strongest bull markets of my career have been their ability to overcome all obstacles as they continue hitting new highs. In Wall Street lingo it’s called “climbing a wall of worry”. Powerful bull markets feed off of fear and worry.

Today, these fears dominate the financial MSM. We’ve been inundated by fears of trade wars, interest rate shocks (first, higher rates that would choke off economic growth, then falling rates, with an inverted yield curve), a global economic recession and of course the biggie; Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Through it all, a wall of worry has continued to propel US and global markets higher. We see exactly this in this 3-year chart of the Dow Jones. From Trump's election to the first significant top (1/18, beginning of US-China trade fears), our wall of worry bull market sent the DJ 43% higher.

Next, after US markets recovered throughout ’18, we then proceeded to hit new all-time highs again (9/18), just as the Q4 from hell kicked in. But, once again, propelled by a wall of worry, our markets recovered with a classic V-bottom move higher, resulting in new all-time highs in S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

This week, our markets have taken a hit, once again, on our primary wall of worry fear….US-China trade.

But folks, have you noticed that with each trade-related decline, they become less and less of a big deal? On Monday, the DJ plummeted more than 700 points intraday but recovered 200 points of those losses by the close. Then Tuesday, the DJ clawed back another 200 points, and we saw another solid day of gains yesterday. As the single best discounting mechanism on the planet, it looks increasingly likely that the markets have discounted the worst case scenario with China. It’s already baked in the cake.

No, it doesn’t mean that trade headlines won’t have the ability to rock the markets from time to time. But what it does mean, as I interpret the markets action, is that it’s increasingly likely that any hit to the US economy and US markets from trade tensions will be minimal, going forward. The markets have already picked the winner…it’s the US. China is on the losing end of this fight. Our wall of worry bull market will continue to take US markets to fresh all-time highs. The Trump Economic Miracle will prevail (easily, I believe) over US-China trade fears (that combined impact less than 4% of US GDP).

Again, Big..and we believe important…back to back recovery days in the US and global markets. Here at the VRA, we’re big believers in watching what the market actually does, rather than what old news and the talking head, 24-hour fake news cycle, tells us that it should do.

The latest round of US-China trade tensions resulted in a 1-day sell-off (Monday). Little more, really, as our markets have come solidly back. This morning…even on the backs of the news of Trump's executive order that could block all of China’s “communications technology” (see Huawei) in the US…one would think that global markets would be lower on this big news. But one would be wrong, as the Dow Jones is up over 200 points as I write. It’s not the news/propaganda that matters…it's the market's reaction to it.

HOUSING IS BACK!

We also learned this morning that US housing starts were 5.7% higher in April, with solid revisions higher in March as well. Housing has led our post 12/24 capitulation move higher. This is MOST important to us, as housing makes up an important component of the VRA Investing System. When the US housing market is vibrant, the US economy is on solid footing. Period.

Back in 2007, as we began warning VRA Members (and those who I spoke to from onstage, many thousands globally) about the coming economic risks, we focused on exactly this….the US housing market…which flashed literally 100’s of warning signs over the course of ’07. We know what happened next. The worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression.

But today, the US housing market looks much, much different. We see below, in the chart of HGX (Housing Index) that the housing sector has been THE market leader, from those 12/24 lows, with big 39% gains (and two golden crosses).

VRA Buy Rec NAIL (3 x Housing ETF) is +112% from those same 12/24 lows. When housing leads, the rest of the US economy follows. Highly bullish.

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

I have just one word for last nights AAII Survey. STUNNING.

This has been my go-to survey for more than 30 years. It’s yet to lead me wrong. Again, these readings are stunning. We’re just days removed from all-time highs, yet these readings show 39% bears to just 29% bulls. It’s clear that the majority of investors are scared sh*tless by the stock market. And frankly, who could blame them? The last 19 years have seen the dot-bomb crash, 9/11/01, the Great Financial Crisis (which was in fact a 2 year Depression), 8 years of BHO, $9.5 trillion in added debt and $4 trillion in QE, and we’re just 5 months away from the worst December since the Great Depression.

But also know this; bull markets do not end until investors are euphoric about the markets. For the AAII Survey, that means readings of 65–70%, for weeks on end. We are light years away from a market top. Our targets are unchanged; 35K DJ by the end of 2020. 50K+ DJ by end of 2024.

Finally, for this morning, our VRA Update from a couple of months ago was our most heavily commented on in some time. “The Emotions of Investing”.

We’re reposting much of it again this morning for our newer VRA Readers (and old). My mentors taught me about the importance of managing your emotions, as much as anything else. Read and save. Teach this to your kids. Life-Changing stuff, as applied to investing (and life).

The Emotions of Investing…Nothing is More Important. VRA Approach to Crushing Mr. Market.

Wayne Gretzky said it best; “a good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be”.

As active investors, we want to crush Mr. Market. We have a strong desire to build our investment portfolios for a fully funded retirement account. We cannot do that if we skate where the puck is.

If we listen to the MSM, filling us with this fear, that fear, or the other fear, we’ll forever be buying when we should be selling and selling when we should be buying. We’ll forever be skating to where the puck is.

After doing this for 34 years I can tell you that it took me (at least) 10 years to get a handle on this most important subject. Understanding and controlling the emotions of investing. Nothing is more important. It’s a constant battle. Investing is as much art as it is science…artists are known for being temperamental and emotional…and nothing makes us more emotional than our money.

Think back to December. Investors sold out right at the lows. We know this because equity fund outflows hit an all-time record. Much of this selling occurred just as the Fear and Greed Index was hitting 2…yes TWO…another all-time record, indicating fear had gripped investors even more so than during the ‘08–09’ financial crisis. Remarkable.

If you were here with us then, you know that we were pounding the table to “buy buy buy”. We said exactly this during the last half of December, the worst since the Great Depression, and we said it often.

Investors that bought stocks in late December have massive gains to show for it. Unfortunately, that's not most investors. And even more unfortunately, this is how investment portfolios get wiped out…frequently.

I know, because I’ve done it myself. Tough lessons learned are always the best. Those lessons led me to the creation of the VRA Investing System. They led to getting my clients out of the market in late 1999, just before the dot-bomb, saving them $20–30 million in losses. They led to my warnings to everyone that would listen, beginning in 2006, at 100+ events all over the world, that “the coming financial crisis could wipe out stock markets and drive housing prices into the ground”.

And they led to my bottom calls in March ’09 and this past December. I’ll repeat, both bottoms will be all-time lows. That's how we played it in ’09 and that’s how we’re playing it now.

Where are investors mindsets today? Check this out…as Bloomberg reported this morning, even as global equity markets have gained $9 trillion in value this year, investors continue to pull money from the markets.

Remarkable. Even as our markets have surged higher, invests still aren’t believers. Fear continues to grip them. Our fake news financial MSM has much to do with this, along with the permabears that have taken over social media. Combined, investors have a level of anxiety that may be the highest yours truly has ever witnessed.

But folks, don’t believe it. It's one big psyop. And it’s designed to keep investors afraid and in cash. But trust me on this; as the markets continue to move higher. our financial press will start to become more bullish. We’ll hear them begin to whisper about the global economic recovery. Then, as the DJ crosses 30,000, we’ll hear them start to say “hey, maybe the good times are returning”. Then, as the DJ crosses 35,000, we’ll hear them join the VRA’s major global macro point of “wow…it does appear that populism/nationalism is better than globalism.”

Then, likely in 2023–2024, as the DJ approaches 50,000, literally everyone and their mother will be wildly bullish on stocks. We’ll hear “100,000 DJ is even possible”!

And that’s when we’ll be selling and taking profits. It’s the very nature of investor sentiment…the very nature of fear and greed…the very nature of the emotions of investing.

In addition to using the VRA Investing System to crush Mr. Market with our leveraged ETF’s, we own five story stocks for the opportunity of 500% to 1000% gains..something I’ve specialized in my entire career. Updates coming soon.

Make sure and do two things; sign up for our VRA 14 day free trial to ensure you are positioned correctly and listen to our daily VRA Investing System Podcast (sign up at vrainsider.com/podcast).

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Sign up to Join us daily for our VRA Investing System podcast

Learn more at VRAInsider.com

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook

Thursday
May092019

The Rise and Fall of Japan, Echoes of China Today. VRA Market and System Update.

Good Thursday morning all. All eyes are on US-China trade talks in DC, where Trump has announced that beginning Friday, tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports will rise from 10% to 25%.

Frankly, this amount is not a big concern. Think about it. Should the tariffs increase, the total amount raised annually would equal just $30 billion. Sound like a lot? It’s not. China’s total annual GDP is $13 trillion.

Of course, the bigger issue is what happens next. Would Trump actually move forward in introducing additional tariffs of 25% on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports? If so, then we’re getting into the ballpark of an actual trade war. But as we’ve said…consistently…since early 2018, thus far we’ve had something more like a trade tickle with China. At least that’s how the US has been impacted.

But in China, the pain has been much, much more real. Consider that (according to AP this morning), in coastal cities that ship electronics parts to the US, revenues are down some 40% in just the past year. Now that is REAL pain. There’s no way that these kinds of income losses don’t scare the sh*t out of Chinese leadership.

VRA Bottom Line: Trump is a hard-nosed negotiator but he’s also a pragmatist that wants the US economy and US stock markets to continue to lift off. It’s our continued view that a full-blown crisis will be averted this week. China acted almost exactly as the same rogue country when they were being admitted into the WTO in 2001. They backed out of previous commitments going into the final week of negotiations…just as they’re doing here. But at the end of the day, they capitulated and became a full fledged member of the WTO…and their economy soared.

For those that want to understand what happened to Japan in the early 90’s, just as they were thought to be the next global superpower, I think you’ll find this 1998 article from the Cato Institute most interesting. There is zero chance that China has forgotten Japan’s meltdown. The question is, will they egos allow them to change course in time to avert a similar fate?

https://www.cato.org/publications/trade-policy-analysis/revisiting-revisionists-rise-fall-japanese-economic-model

“The revisionists claimed to have discovered a new and superior form of capitalism: the Japanese capitalist developmental state. Today, however, the Japanese model is better known as “crony capitalism,” and its manifest failures are causing economic pain and political turmoil up and down the Pacific Rim. The revisionists argued that the United States was doomed as a leading economic power unless it adopted Japanese-style practices. It didn’t and is now enjoying spectacular and unrivaled prosperity.

In short, the revisionists’ doom-and-gloom prophecies could not have been more wrong. All their errors trace back to a common source: an inability to understand and appreciate the power of free markets. Suffering from what Nobel Prize-winning economist F. A. Hayek termed the “fatal conceit,”87 they believed that a handful of government planners could outthink millions of private decisionmakers — could pick “strategic” industries, allocate capital in defiance of market signals, and prop up the stock market and real estate values. Like so many others before them, they prided themselves as sophisticated realists, yet in fact their faith in bureaucratic miracles was hopelessly naive. Only a few short years were needed to burst their bubble.”

Know a Couple of Things

1) In my opinion, if you’re considering selling, you are clueless about the underlying strength of the US economy and US bull market in stocks. Again, in all candor, if you are selling into this then you should probably do anything other than invest in equities (unless you are a short term trader).

The smart money move here is to do one thing and one thing only….BUY.

2) The US does not need China. We just don’t. Frankly, not for much of anything. In fact, I can make a strong case that US GDP would skyrocket to 5%+ inside of 12–18 months, without China’s theft and cheap manufacturing that robs US jobs and US GDP. The US would suddenly self produce everything that we import from China. Yes, these items would be more expensive…for at least a short while…but the US economy and US stock markets would explode higher, on the backs of economic production.

But man oh man, the coin flip of that argument looks quite a bit different. Without the US, China would fall into a decade + long depression. Civil war would quickly ensue. It would be game over for the current regime in power. The Chinese economy relies on US buying power to such a degree that it “mandates” that China get a trade deal done with Trump.

So yes…I look for a deal. Again, I look for it to be phased in. But it will also require immediate changes to China’s criminality. Trump owns China. Not debatable.

If you’re not following me on Twitter, why not? You wouldn’t have to wait to see some of my tweets here. Come join me @kherriage!

— -

VRA MARKET & SYSTEM UPDATE

The VRA System continues to read 10/12 screens bullish. No change since late January. This means that we continue to use monthly dollar cost averaging to add to positions. With the best US economy in 50 years and with our targets pointing to a doubling in the stock market over the next 4–5 years, pullbacks must be bought.

We also saw something interesting in the internals yesterday. With the inherent risks and fear that we’re seeing, our VRA Market Internals were positive across the board. Advance/decline, up/down volume and new 52 week highs/lows were all green. A trifecta of positivity, even as the public sent the put/call ratio to 120% (highest since January).

In addition, each broad market US index has worked off its overbought readings. No, we have not reached heavily or extreme oversold, but I’ll frankly be surprised if that should happen.

Bitcoin: THE Market Tell

As we’ve discussed here for some time, Bitcoin has been THE “risk on, risk off” market tell for well over two years, leading equities sharply higher (into the ’18 top), then lower, and finally, bottoming in mid-December of last year. Bitcoin continues to rise, hitting $6000 again yesterday. This repeating pattern bares watching. Should Bitcoin reverse lower, it will send us a warning sign that “risk off” could be returning. So far, so good.

And I find it most interesting that gold is only fractionally higher for the week. If this was the start of a serious global trade war, we would see the fear showing up in gold. Just not happening.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…have a great week.

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/16 years.

Sign up to Join us daily for our VRA Investing System podcast

Learn more at VRAInsider.com

Also, Find us on Twitter and Facebook