"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."

--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"

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Twitter: @kherriage


VRA Update: Record Equity Inflows. Supply and Demand Highly Bullish. Investor Sentiment, Still A Major Positive.

Good Friday morning all. Another mixed day in US markets yesterday, but this time it was the Dow Jones that rose more than 100 points while the rest of the market was mixed. Still, the markets did not decline into the close…and thats a positive…breaking the 2 day streak of weak closes.

If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that I’ve been bullish on the stock market for years…with intermittent periods of profit taking…using short term (ST) tops to take profits and then using deeply oversold levels to get aggressively positioned on the long side.

We’re not day traders…but we’re certainly “opportunity traders”…this is how the VRA System was constructed and how we’ll continue to crush the markets.

Check out the news from this morning. As reported in these pages more than 2 weeks ago, my Wall Street sources were telling me that they were preparing for record levels of fund inflows…investors aggressively re-entering the stock market. We’re now seeing proof that this is absolutely the case, with record inflows of $43 billion last week and estimates for more than $700 billion for 2018 (another all time high).


If you took Economics 101 you know the basic principle of “supply and demand”. More than anything, supply and demand controls the movement and behavior of all investment classes….be it equity, debt, currencies, housing…you name it. Today, demand for equities is surging. I see no evidence that this will reverse anytime soon.

Combine this with the estimate of more than $800 billion in corporate share repurchases in 2018 and you have a powerful combination of bullish forces that will continue to propel stock prices higher this year.

The fundamentals….for both the US economy and US equity markets…are overwhelmingly positive. And yes, at some point, this will cease to be the case. At some point, the markets will reverse. The US economy will go into recession. At some point. But that point is not now. I continue to miss the perma bears view that stock prices have topped and a vicious crash awaits. But they remain…and thats just fine by me…that’s what makes a market. We need someone to keep shorting and selling us their cheap shares.

Technically, as long as we remain above the most important moving averages…the 50/100/200 dma…we must remain bullish. Even for ST traders, when the major indexes are above their 8/21 dma, there is simply no good reason to be bearish.

My views remain unchanged; DJ 30,000 this year. DJ 40,000 by end of 2020.


Below are the readings from yesterdays AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, my go-to sentiment survey for 30 years. Today, bulls have picked up some steam, with bulls at 36.8%, bears down to 21.3% and neutral investors remaining at a still high 41.8%. Remember, at the January highs, bulls hit 60%, so todays 36.8% tells us that investors remain skeptical of the bull market…exactly the kind of negative sentiment we want to see, as contrarians. I’ll repeat; once bulls reach 60–70%…for weeks on end…yours truly will begin to take some money off the table. When this happens, we will have reduced our holdings by a significant amount.

Below is yesterdays reading from the CNN/Money Fear and Greed Index. Today, it sits at 30%….a “fear” reading. In January, it hit 80%. At the 2/9 lows, it dropped all the way down to 8%.

We have no position changes…no reasons to take new actions…as the market sits today. I expect the market rally to pick up speed, once again. But I’ll also add that, from a current news perspective, that Trumps position on trade/tariffs…along with his changes in administration (rumors abound that more are to come soon), have the markets a bit on edge.

Finally for this morning, consider the following…from a macroeconomic point of view. Just two years ago…just prior to Trumps election…the number of countries with GDP growth above their two year average sat at 24. Today…again just two years later…the number of countries with GDP growth above their 2 year average sits at 34.

As we’ve covered here often, the global reflation/growth theme is very much alive. We see it in global range expansion breakouts and we see it in GDP growth. We also see it in the growth of oil demand, which may well produce our next VRA Buy rec. Energy stocks have pulled back of late, along with the price of oil, which could be setting up another great buying opportunity.

I encourage everyone to login to your VRA Members Site regularly. As a rule, we keep our position sizes to no more than 10–12. My goal is to be diversified…but not overly so. We want positions that are concentrated enough so that when we book our big gains, our portfolio actually feels the gains (rather than holding 50+ stocks, where even 100% gains barely move the needle).

Until next time, thanks again for reading…


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VRA Update: Social Media Bears Out in Full Force. The Correction is Over. MAGA Bull Market.

We look to have timed this market correction well. Yesterdays 336 point move higher in the Dow has taken it out of the “trouble” zone….but, the best looking moves higher have taken place in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000. Each remains in short term “aggressive buy” mode, based on VRA System readings.

The VRA uses (roughly) 70% fundamental analysis and 30% technical analysis and for our most important/major moves we employ the 50/100/200 dma…for more short term trading purposes we use the 8/21 dma. It continues to look VERY much to me like the correction is behind us. The moves higher, from EXACTLY the 100 dma have been near perfection, Highly bullish. In addition, Europe is showing 1% gains across the board with Hong Kong up a big 2% and Japan surging 1.8% higher. In my view, based on VRA System readings and my 3 decades of instincts, we must continue to be positioned for the next advance to new all-time highs.

Fundamentally speaking, the US economy is in great shape…for the all of the reasons we cover here often…plus new signs of economic power that we see daily:


If you’re on social media (and I’m a twitter guy), you see it all. The crazies, the dummies, the Mensa level geniuses, the socialists, the capitalists and of course the Trump haters and the Trump lovers. Well, the bears are out again, trolling me on Twitter like we’re about to have a stock market crash (no…we are not). I’ll come back to the markets in a moment.

Years ago I made the decision to keep politics out of the VRA…as much as possible, that is…but its no secret that I am a major Trump supporter. I predicted he would win in late 2015 and unlike essentially every politician I’ve voted for, he has not let me down. I’m an independent that has voted for both D’s and R’s…I have always strived to be objective with my vote…and were it not for President Trump I honestly would fear for the future of our great country. In my view, we were one wrong choice for President away from a systemic/planned economic collapse. I am certain of this. I also covered this most important topic in my book “CrashProof Prosperity, Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Trump.” Planned economic crashes, like the Great Depression, give enormous power, to a much larger government. When people are desperate, they’ll take the help from wherever they can get it. Saul Alinksy explains it all in “Rules for Radicals”…just don’t read it right before you go to bed.

I only mention politics and Trump this morning because this ties in directly to the direction of both the stock market and the economy. From the night of the election, as the DJ futures lost 1000 points on the reaction to Trumps win…to the 39% spike higher that ensured since…Trumps economic policies are once again giving Americans from all backgrounds a fighting chance. This is MAGA time.

I also remind bears of the following…the reasons that I have been bullish since Trump was elected:

1) Earnings are growing at a 15% clip….best corp earnings in a decade.

2) The untold benefits of tax reform are just now kicking in. Trumps tax reform will prove more powerful than Reagans…in my view…and Reagans tax cuts paved the way for a DJ that more than doubled during his final 6 years in office.

3) Red tape over-regulation is quickly dissolving…this is a massively under reported story.

4) $4 trillion in offshore funds being repatriated into the US (hugely positive)

5) Infrastructure deal is coming…$1.5 to $3 trillion in size (jobs, jobs, jobs)

6) Consumer confidence at an 18 year high

7) And one of my personal favorites…both US and global markets have entered “range expansion”. Range expansion marks new all-time highs in markets/sectors. Range expansion bull markets are the most powerful kind…and they mark the birth of a new bull market…a bull market that can power higher for years and years.

8) Finally, due to the stronger economy, higher earnings and tax reform, US co’s are buying back shares and using M&A at a rate not seen in decades, if ever. This has the effect of reducing the number of public co’s and the number of available outstanding shares to be bought. Its simply supply and demand, really. In just the last 9 years, the number of US public co’s has shrunk by some 60%. Highly, highly bullish for both the ST and LT nature of this bull market.

For those that want to beat the markets…and I’ve yet to meet an investor that does not…we must use corrections like the 10% one we’ve just seen to ensure we are positioned for the gains to come.

Since 2014, the VRA Portfolio has a total net gain on all positions of 2413%

Lastly, at the beginning of the year I recorded the following video…it provides additional perspective on how my background (small town East Texas nobody to Wall Street slayer), VRA long term success/game plan and how we position ourselves, in good markets or bad (and there really is no bad market…not as long as we are on the right side of it).

Here’s the YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-8y21NvwCw

Until Next Time, thanks again for reading.

Kip Herriage

Founder/ Publisher Vertical Research Advisory (2003)

Also, find us on Twitter and Facebook for future updates.


VRA Update: VRA Performance. Still Crushing our Benchmarks. VRA Market Update. Welcome to March and April, HIGHLY BULLISH.

Before we get to this weeks sell-off, and the panic level sentiment that has come flooding back into stocks, here are our performance numbers for 2018:

The VRA Portfolio has a net gain for 2018 (on all trades and current holdings) of +4.6%. Annualized, this gain equate to +27.6% for the full year.

How are we stacking up versus the broad markets? Both the Dow and S&P 500 were down (slightly) for the first two months of the year, but our nearest benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, was is down 1.9% to start the year.

Bottom line; in Wall Street parlance, the VRA Portfolio is outperforming our nearest benchmark (R2K) by a very big 39% (annualized basis). Since 2014, we have a total net gain on all positions of 2413%

Over the weekend we will update the VRA Portfolio in your VRA Members Site, as we do at the end of each week.

VRA Market Update

With yesterdays 400+ point drop in the DJ, we’re reaching important support levels that could determine whether or not we have a retest of the February 9th lows (23,264). Based on VRA System readings, we want to see the DJ hold the 24,400 level on a closing basis. For the S&P 500, this number is roughly 2650. With futures off 1% this morning, both of these support levels may be broken…but its not how we open that matters…its how we close.

The reason being given for the sharp drop yesterday was Trump’s position on imposing tariffs, on both steel and aluminum, to countries flooding US markets with cheap product. Why anyone is shocked, I have no clue. This is exactly what Trump ran on…and its a big part of the reason that he won. This is what MAGA is all about folks….restoring power to US manufacturing through “fair trade”…not the easy manipulated “free trade” that US president after US president has endorsed.


Trump continues to baffle those that still don’t get him. How interesting has this week been…he’a managed to tick off gun owners and staunch 2A advocates (winning over some on the left) while also ticking off traditional conservative economists on free trade, and again, getting high praise from those on the left (unions, chief among them).

This is what makes Trump, Trump. Its my studied belief that we’re witnessing 4D chess level political triangulation…right here, right now…on a number of important issues.

Back to the markets…fear induced panic levels are shooting up, once again. Take a look at the CNN/Money weekly survey…its all the way back to 8…extreme fear. As contrarians, we know that these readings mark far more bottoms than tops and we should look to invest accordingly.

We also learned this week that the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey saw bulls drop to 38%. Remember, just over 1 month ago, this level stood at 60%.

Yesterdays selling pressure also saw the put/call ratio close at 1.29 (extreme bearishness) with the VIX (fear index) rising some 22%. Again, all of the signs of extreme bearishness…market crashes RARELY happen when everyone expects them to.

Still, because of the level of aggressiveness in the VRA…its how we crush the markets year after year…we will not take dumb risks. Again, should we need to enter stop losses, we will do so…and we will do so without flinching. But no…I do not believe this will be necessary.

March and April, Highly Bullish.

Welcome to the month of March, historically one of the most seasonally bullish months on record (April is right there with it). Remember, 90% + of all stock market gains (going back 70 years) come between the months of November — May. I’ve know this fact for a long while…yet each time I say it/write it, it still surprises me.

Below is research from LPL…March and April, since 1950…hugely positive. And when March is positive, it tends to be VERY positive, with an average gain of 4.1% over the last 20 years. (h/t to @ryandetrick, one of my favorite Twitter follows).


February was also the first down month since Trump was elected. Hey, it had to happen at some point.

Bottom line; the Dow rallied some 2400 points in less than 2 weeks…its now been followed by -1000 points of losses in the DJ. This is normal backing and filling. Again, “normal”…and represents an opportunity to buy our favorite investments while they are on sale.

It looks VERY much to me…again, based on the VRA System and my 33 years of doing this daily…that the bears will be proven wrong. Tens of billions of inflows into equity funds are on the way…combined with a rapidly recovering US economy, I see few reasons to be concerned. But as always, should the VRA System give us a warning shot across the bow, we will take action by placing stops in our most exposed broad market positions.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….have a great weekend

Kip Herriage

Founder/ Publisher Vertical Research Advisory (2003)


VRA Update: Do Not Fight the Tape. VRA System Approach To Crushing the Market. Investing Comes at You Fast.

Good Tuesday morning all. After Monday’s big close I continue to be amazed by the bears that somehow appear blind to whats occurring in the US economy and stock market. Our long time VRA Members know how bullish I am…how bullish I’ve been since Trump was elected and made it out of the historically dangerous first year of a new presidency.

My mentors taught me a few things well…chief among these was “do not fight the tape”. Todays stock market bears obviously had inferior mentors. Both the macro environment and the structural set-up of this powerful bull market continue to scream “higher prices ahead”.


One month ago, the VRA began writing (daily) that the internals were breaking down. To protect ourselves we placed some tight stop losses on our most exposed positions to a market correction. As the market plunged 10% in less than 8 trading sessions, we were stopped out of some positions….combined (over the last 4 months) the VRA has booked 167% in net profits (24% average per position) and we then used the 10% correction to re-enter the markets.

This is how the VRA System works. We are quite likely the most unique investment advisory you’ll find, as our objective is simple; make money for you…our valued clients…as we crush the markets, month after month and year after year.

I highly encourage our newer VRA Members to read (re-read) our VRA Update from Friday. It explains our approach to beating the markets, using the VRA System, ETF’s and “Story stock” growth stocks, which produce gains for us of several hundred percent to more than 1000% percent.

Obviously, to make money in the markets, we must be on the right side of big moves. We nailed last weeks huge rally in stocks, punctuated by the 650 combined point move higher in the DJ on Friday and Monday. Remember, we are now at month end positioning (bullish) which will be followed by the even more bullish month beginning equity purchases (pensions, buybacks, retirement plans, etc).

We’ve now broken through levels where a multitude of bearish “gurus” said that we would reverse lower from. WRONG.

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve seen my chart and comments.

This tweet sums up whats about to happen next:


MELT UP….massive amounts of fresh $ coming into the market this week and into next.

The 10% correction is behind us…weak hands have sold their positions…now the shorts are being squeezed and investors are plowing 10’s of billions back into the markets weekly. The melt-up is back on.

Assuming the VRA System remains bullish this week (high odds), it is likely that US markets will hit fresh all-time highs again in the month of March, closing out a stellar first quarter for 2018.

The VRA has +2413% net gains since 2014… just getting started.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…have a great week.

Kip Herriage

Founder/Publisher VRA (2003)

To receive updates like this Daily sign up to receive two free weeks from the VRA at www.vrainsider.com/14day

Also, find us on Twitter and Facebook


VRA Market Update: Inflation Fears and Why I Remain Bullish

Good Thursday Afternoon All,

DJ futures dropped and rebounded on fears of inflation this week. Look, we’ve long known that inflation was NEVER sub 2%. What a scam. Rapidly rising prices on the products/goods/services most important to actual people prove that inflation has been 8–10% at minimum. We’re talking food, rent, college, healthcare, insurance, plus that hidden biggie…a multitude of hidden fees, taxes, surcharges, etc.

2% inflation? Hogwash! All of a sudden, the investment markets are concerned about inflation? Yes, that’s the official story they’re sticking to…here’s why I see this as the biggest hidden risk in the markets today;

1) if interest rates do skyrocket, all bets are off. The entire debt ridden world is in big, big trouble.

2) If the (global) deep state establishment wants to take Trump and his swamp drainers down (as covered in my members last weeks podcast), this is exactly how they would do it. It’s exactly how I would do it.

But no….I do not believe this will come to pass. As I’ve said over the last week, I put the odds at 70–80% that this correction has run its course. But, it’s the 20–30% that forces us to pay attention like a hawk. Folks, this is what I do. Its what I’ve done for 33 years. 12–16 hour days…running VRA System scans/screens…ensuring that we are positioned as perfectly as possible.

I didn’t rise to (among) the highest levels of Wall Street because of my family connections (lower middle class doesn’t come with that perk). Nor was I the smartest guy in the room. My advantage was, and is, that few have the drive to outwork me. And I have the instincts of a river boat gambler. This is how the VRA beats Wall Street…year after year after year (14 of 15 since 2003).

Bottom Line….Here’s Why I Remain Bullish

I’ve written about each of these for months:

1) Trumps Tax reform…bigger than most everyone believes possible

2) $4 trillion being repatriated back into the US

3) $1.5 trillion infrastructure package (on the way).

4) Corporate earnings are soaring….this is not how bull markets end.

We will continue to use pullbacks to add positions to the VRA Portfolio. The best time to buy is when panic is in the air…when there is blood in the streets.

The VRA has outperformed 90% + of any/all gurus that you’ll see on TV or read about in MSM print. No, my style is not for everyone…but I don’t care about everyone…I only care about making my VRA Members money.

Here are the most recent numbers for VRA:

1) The VRA has now beat S&P 500 14/15 years

2) Since 2014, we have a total net gain on all positions of 2413%

3) Today, the current VRA Portfolio has a total net gain of 897% or 94% average profit per position.

Crushing Mr. Market….as only the VRA can.

Finally, I’m including an email from a new VRA Member (Don).

“Hello Kip, Your service is fantastic! I am a new member but intend on being a member for quite some time.I am somewhat of a novice and your attention to detail and explanations are a fantastic education. I will recommend you to everyone! Don”

Thank you Don. It’s great having you here with us. I love writing…I’ve done it pretty much every day since 2003…but if I’m being completely honest, most of what I write is for me. By putting my thoughts on paper it forces me to dig deep into my belief system. I cannot write something that I do not believe in. It helps with my own investing…our VRA System…hopefully it helps with your investing as well.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….


To receive updates like this Daily sign up to receive two free weeks from the VRA at www.vrainsider.com/14day

Also, find us on Twitter and Facebook