VRA Update: Trend Reversal. 1098% Gains in 6 Months...in Just Two Stocks

By now you've probably already heard, more than $3 trillion in global stock market losses took place over the last two trading sessions. An all time record, for back-to-back trading sessions.

This morning, let's put these global losses in perspective...but not just from the last 2 days...let's instead take a look at declines from the past 13 months. In no particular order, here goes:

Germany: -25% from the highs

Italy: -37% from the highs

China: -24% from the highs

Japan: -27% from the highs

These are brutal declines. And the economic picture that they are painting is even worse...as in, if people aren't worried about a global depression, they must be smoking crack. This may sound like I am trying to be cute...I am not. This is as real as it gets, and those that are not preparing today will almost certainly regret it tomorrow. 

What about US markets? Most will be likely surprised to see these numbers:

S&P 500: -6%

Nasdaq: -12%

Russell 2000: -16%

Bottom line on US and Global Stock Markets: Equity markets had one last shot at rekindling a bull market. US indexes needed to break out to fresh highs on the current move. Instead, following the Brexit shocker, we are even further away...and the global kicker is that leading international markets are right back into confirmed bear market, crash mode. 

US traders will be watching the markets technical levels closely. After zooming lower through the 200 day moving averages on EVERY major index, and combined with the global devastation in stocks, going forward we can expect one primary trading strategy to be employed by the smart money: sell any major rally attempt...also, short any major rally attempt. 

The trading we have seen so far is nothing close to "capitulation"...and while it's too early to say that the markets will crash in the near future, I see major short term risks in US stock prices:

1) margin calls: unless stocks rally sharply...then manage to hold those gains...selling pressure from margin calls will act as a constant weight on the markets.

2) central bank anxiety: in every country where negative interest rates have been deployed, stock markets have been destroyed...led by absolutely massive and record losses in bank stocks. In the 90's, the term was "bond market vigilantes"...this group forced Bill Clinton into cutting government spending, eventually leading to a surplus. Now, I see "bank stock vigilantes" exercising their own brand of financial justice. Here in the US, the banking index is off a huge 25% from the highs. In Europe, the losses are 50-80%...just brutal devastation in the banking world. The vigilantes are shorting every rally in bank stocks...and there is little to nothing that the powers that be can do about it.

And yes...fear and panic are quickly setting in among central bankers and their commercial banking brethren. Negative interest rates have been the disaster that everyone with half a brain knew they would be. There's blood in the water now, and if I am correct, the selling pressure is nowhere near complete. Global markets are flashing "bearish engulfing patterns", technical speak for, "holy sh*t...will the selling pressure ever end?" 

BTW, did you happen to catch Alan Greenspan, on Bloomberg or CNBC, over the last 36 hours? I'll just repeat two of his comments:

1) "This is the worst economic/financial situation that I have seen in my professional career" (and no...he was not talking about Brexit/Europe...he was talking about conditions right here in the US).

2) "This ends in inflation". Of course Greenspan is right. And there's this; Greenspan is also a huge gold bug, recommending that we should go back on the gold standard. 

Folks, there's a reason gold and silver are up 23-25% since the start of the year. And there's a reason why here at the VRA, we are making absolute fortunes, with gains of close to 1100% in our top 2 mining stocks (combined), since the bull market kicked off in PM's on 1/20/16.

Remember, the precious metals/miner bull market is just now getting underway. Before it's over, gold will break $10,000/oz and silver will break $175/oz. But the real action will continue to be in the miners, as they appreciate 3-5 x faster than the metals themselves. 

The precious metals bull market of our lifetime is upon us. If you own the right companies, a wealth affect on steroids is underway. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip 

VRA FLASH: BREXIT WINS! This Is What Happens Next

As it turns out, Mohammed Ali is not the only one that can shock the world. Our faith in the "possible" has been restored...maybe the little guy DOES have a shot, after all.

As I live tweeted the emerging victory for #Leave, with each city reporting their vote totals, it began to become more and more clear that Brexit actually had a chance. Gold started to spike...then the VIX started to spike...and the British pound began to plunge (to 30 year lows). 

Then, at 10PM Houston time, it became clear. With 60% of the vote in, it became a near impossibility that "remain" could win. By then, gold was up $40/oz, the VIX was up 31% and Dow futures were off 550 points...which is essentially where we find things this morning. 

Of my roughly 30 tweets during the vote, here are the two that seemed to resonate the most:

‏‪@KHerriage

Ironic.The US fought/gained independence from Great Britain, but it took Britain leaving the EU for the US to begin regaining our freedoms 

‏‪@KHerriage

I'm feeling one emotion right now. My faith...in the "system" ...is restored. We love our mates across the pond! Now we'll do our part.

We must keep in mind that it will still take 2 years for the UK to officially leave the EU. But, at the same time, the EU and global establishment must now see huge risks that other countries in the 27 member EU block will follow the UK's lead. Already, the odds are shifting to both France and Italy departing as well.

Greece may have been the first to vote on leaving...but now that the UK has pulled it off, one most important and striking fact is clear...the European Union is dead. Just typing these words gives me a chill. I just never thought it would actually happen...turns out my son was right...the little guy can still win.

Finally for now, know this; the markets detest uncertainty...and boy oh boy, is there plenty of that now. 

Also, and this is most important...I will be watching closely...the European close. Should their markets close at the lows, with heavy selling pressure right into the bell, US traders will get very, very nervous about Monday. As in, a potential black Monday. 

In 1987, as a 2 year broker, I witnessed Black Monday first hand. I watched veteran brokers make one mistake after another. The biggest lesson that I learned? We should look to "ACT" rather than "REACT".

I will continue to do this in every update and recommendation that I make, throughout what looks to be a rough week ahead for the markets. As long as we manage our emotions we can avoid the mistakes that most will make.

Honestly, I have no idea where the markets will be in 1, 2 or 5 days. But I know this...unless central banks bail out these markets, the risk level for stocks is extraordinarily high. This could well be Europe's Lehman Brothers moment.

The VRA now has more than 900% in gains, in just 3 mining stocks, since January 20^th of this year. I also had all of my Subscribers OUT of the stock market! Instead, we own the exact investments ramping 10-25% higher today.

If you would like to join us, we have a special BREXIT offer, through this coming Tuesday.

For the first time, we are able to offer the VRA as a 6-month subscription, and at just $595.

If you would like to act, simply reply back to this email with “I AM IN” in the subject line (or send to: kip@vraletter.com)

We will have your VRA Membership active ASAP. Come crush the markets with us.

Until next time, thanks again for reading...Stay Frosty

Kip

VRA Update: Brexit Polls..FED Insanity...and Terrorism...Are Changing Everything

Following my "Fix is In" VRA Update from last month, along with my consistent theme over the last...however many years...that "the establishment wins...big government wins", recent events might just be forcing me to change my stance.

Two major events may be in the process of changing everything.

The first is the upcoming vote on Brexit, which takes place in just 7 days. Should Britain vote to leave the 28 member European Union, then my theory of "big government wins" will be blown completely out of the water. As our oldest son, Tyler, said yesterday morning, "dad, if Brexit actually passes, it pretty much destroys your argument...maybe the people are actually capable of rising up." 

Son, do I ever hope you are right. The message sent to the rest of the world...to the rest of the worlds people...would be incredibly empowering. I believe it would be nothing short of revolutionary. 

How ironic would it be that Great Britain...the global superpower that our founding fathers and 13 colonies defeated...might then be the first to act, in taking back power from today's megalomaniacal global rulers, along with the corporations and military madmen they answer to?

But I remain skeptical...in fact, I remain very skeptical of Brexit actually passing. The powerful simply have too much to lose. And, while the recent polls all seem to favor Brexit, the bookies of England have been far more accurate in figuring odds over the years. Where do the bookies place the odds of a Brexit today? At 2-1..."against" Brexit.

The other major event that could be changing everything...this time, in the US? Terrorism, of course. 

The moment after I heard about the Orlando attack, my next thought was "Trump's chances of winning just went up, big time". Granted, if "foot in mouth disease" was real, Mr. Trump would be on a steady course of antibiotics. Still, when watching the left and their political correctness around the most important issue of modern times, that being "We Are At War...Right Here in the US..and Our Enemy Wants Each of Us Dead", HRC and BHO look as if they are living on another planet. Out of touch...beyond tone deaf...essentially, anti-American. I know no other way to state my thoughts, following their weak, weak, weak statements of yesterday.

Bottom line: Should Brexit win....should Trump win...our big government, establishment overlords will be running for cover. In fact, many will be rightly worried about convictions for treason (with 9/11 Truth at the very top of my personal agenda).

VRA Market Update

Overseas markets are weak once again, with every country in Europe down more than 1%. Things aren't much better in Asia. 

Remember all of my updates about the US market, and its inability to hit fresh highs of late? Each failed move higher is another shot to the midsection...yes, this market could very quickly get pounded once again. Think back to January...15% losses in less than 3-4 weeks...this is what could be directly in front of us.

The VRA System still has the market at overbought...but still, we remain above the most important technical levels. So...we will wait before taking action on the downside.

But gold and the miners? I continue to believe they are ready to break out...in a very major way.

Until next time, thanks again for reading...Stay Frosty

Kip

VRA ALERT: THE FIX IS IN

There's an old saying that you've no doubt heard before; "if it walks like a duck and if it quacks like a duck...then...it's a duck."

After mentioning this distinct possibility here in the VRA more than a few times, its time for me to call this particular duck out...folks, the FIX IS IN. 

We've all known for, well, most of our adult lives, that politicians will do just about anything to get elected. Then, once elected, we know that they will do just about anything to get what they, and their puppeteers, want.

Lets' cover a few recent instances where this fact has been made abundantly clear to us:

1) Slick Willy...Bill Clinton. What kind of man...much less the leader of the free world...has an affair with a 20 year old intern in the Oval office? As we've since learned, Monica was just one of his dalliances. But the power of the Presidency is immense...and since leaving the White House, Clinton has gone on to make more than $100 million and raise billions for the foundation that he and his wife control. Of course, he was also Wall Streets biggest friend, as evidenced by his legislation that killed Glass-Steagall...the singular law in place from the Great Depression that had separated banks and Wall Street, and that the removal of, led directly to the financial crisis of 2008. No one should be surprised to learn that 90% of the Clinton's new-found wealth has come directly from...you guessed it...the banking and investment industry. Only in America, is right. 

2) George W Bush and 9/11. I won't even get into "9/11 Truth" in this particular update...as difficult as this may be for me...but let's only examine the Iraq War from this time frame. No, there were NO "Weapons of Mass Destruction" (WMD's) in Iraq. And NO, Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11/01. 

As a country, we've lost more than 6000 of our finest young men and women...not to mention the many tens of thousands that were gravely wounded, both physically and mentally, nor the $1 trillion plus in treasure that's been spent on the Iraq war (plus the several hundred thousand innocent Iraqi's...women and children...that were killed. And we wonder why they hate us). 

But this is not what mattered to Bush and his war loving cronies...what mattered most was "profit and power". Shadow government hawks wanted a dominate presence in the Middle East, and of course, everyone wanted the oil. And we've always know what the Military Industrial Complex wants...WAR...how else can defense co's continue to bank hundreds of billions in profits each and every year?

We're coming up on 15 years since 9/11, but as was already made clear during this Presidential election, if your last name is "Bush", you're still highly radioactive...you are plutonium...and we can only hope that this entire family will shrivel up and disappear from public life, forever. 

3) Barrack Obama, or BHO as we refer to him in these pages. 

As we've seen with Obamacare (if you like your insurance, you can keep your insurance. If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor), BHO is not to be trusted. Like Slick and W before him, this man will say anything to get what he, and his power brokers, want. From the lies told to pass our new healthcare monstrosity, to his "executive order" presidency, which allows him to govern as if a king, it's been proven to the American people once again that in today's world, seemingly only lying megalomaniacs can "win" this job.

THE FIX IS IN - BHO's THIRD TERM

Again, I've already gone "there" several times over the last 2-3 months...but in all honesty, that was just passing conjecture on my part...now it's time for me to do the full Monty and to call a spade a spade. This bizarre stock market rally has been nothing short of...well...bizarre. It's been called the "most hated bull market" ever, and few investment pro's that I know would disagree with this.

We know the obvious, now. Zero percent interest rates have allowed the wealthiest of the wealthy to buy trillions back in common stock...then use incredibly cheap and borrowed money to launch record levels of mergers and acquisitions. Without question, these two events alone have fueled most of this 7 year bull market.

But folks, something else is happening in the markets now...and while its only being whispered in quite halls today, yours truly didn't pick up the moniker of "Equal Opportunity Offender" for nothing. 

I am now, without a doubt, convinced that the FIX IS IN. The game plan is clear; 

ONE: By any means necessary, protect BHO's legacy and get Hillary elected. 

TWO: Then, the transformation to "all knowing, all powerful big government" can be completed. Through extension, and to what will amount to BHO's third term in office, our loss of individual rights, freedoms, privacy and independence, will be set in stone. This is the "long con"...it has forever been the BIG PIC game plan for one world government believers, and getting HRC elected will help to compete the process. We see the same events playing out in Europe, through the creation of the European Union, and for their plan to really come together, the US must continue to play their part as well. And no, there will be no Brexit.

As an aside, and for those that have a hard time "going there"...think back to the decision made by Supreme Court CHIEF Justice John Roberts on Obamacare. This supposedly "conservative judge" was THE swing vote on the issue of the individual mandate (as an illegal taxation scheme). Conservative legal scholars, overwhelmingly, predicted that this legal challenge would result in be the death of Obamacare. We know what happened next. Roberts voted in favor of the Obama administration...and FOR Obamacare...meaning that once again, BIG GOVERNMENT wins. And there's one more tidbit here...Roberts was appointed to the Supreme Court by...yep..."W". Surprise, surprise. 

IF I AM CORRECT, HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:

Think back to the presidential race between Bill Clinton and "daddy" Bush. Clinton and his team ran on one primary issue...and they reminded voters of this most important issue, time and again; "It's the Economy, Stupid". Slick and team knew what everyone knows today...elections are mostly won on a single issue; "is my life better now than it was 4 years ago"? Bush was hammered on this most important economic issue throughout the election, and of course, it didn't help that the US had entered into a recession during the election year.  Of course, Clinton won handily. 

Obama and Clinton...plus their big government handlers...have a multi-tiered game plan to get HRC elected. Much of it involves the US economy and stock market, but in my view, we will soon see clear evidence that their "successes" won't stop there. 

Led in part by the most politically controlled and connected Federal Reserve in all of history, the US economy will see "remarkable improvement" and the stock market will continue to rise...quite likely, by leaps and bounds. The move higher, or so we will be told, will come on the backs of surprisingly good economic news (similar to what we saw with housing starts this week...numbers that were so much greater from expectations that even the biggest bulls were taken aback).   

Importantly, I am not claiming that this good news will be 100% fabricated. But folks, if you've seen how the Obama administration "massages" our economic numbers on just two fronts...unemployment and inflation...not much of what I am saying here should surprise you. Does anyone reading this believe that our actual unemployment rate is 5%? Does anyone reading this believe that our actual inflation figures are in the 2% range? Frankly, similar to "you can keep your insurance", we should actually be surprised to learn that these figures are even remotely close to reality.

Remember, they will SAY anything to get elected...they will DO anything to get elected.  

And then this past Thursday, we learned that BHO's good buddy...dear ole grandaddy Warren Buffet (through his massive investment in mortgage banking leader, Wells Fargo) is once again offering "fog the mirror" home loans with just 3% down. Why is this important to the election of HRC? It's a huge dog whistle to banks and lenders all over the country. A big ole "wink-wink, nod-nod" that says, "if Buffett is doing it, its safe for all of us to do it". So what if it leads to the next housing crash and global financial crisis...we're covered...cause BHO's close pal is leading the way. 

A rapidly rising housing market...a rapidly rising stock market...and fantastic, 5% unemployment figures. It all adds up to one thing; "It's the economy, stupid"....and electing Clinton(s) will keep the economic train moving along, just fine. 

The flip side? Electing Trump will mean massive economic risks! We've already begun to hear the fear mongering of the "financial destruction" that a Trump presidency would usher in. 

Again, if I am right, American voters will be bombarded with this almost singular message over the next 5 months; a vote for Trump means a vote AGAINST the US economy. 

We Beat ISIS!

In addition to the remarkable economic recovery that's in store for the US in the weeks and months to come, we should also expect that the battle (we can't say war) against ISIS will have a stunning turn in favor of the West. Hey, no one here is rooting for the bad guys...no doubt, we all want to see the US and our allies pound ISIS into non-existence. 

But following my beliefs, laid out clearly in this update, no one should be surprised to see major military success after major military success...as we head into November.

Whatever It Takes -  On Steroids

You get my drift. "Whatever it takes" to get HRC elected is the predominant theme that we should expect to see carried out, between now and Tuesday, November 8th.

And know this; nothing that I have written here is meant to be a vote for Donald Trump...just forecasting the future as I see it playing out. In fact, history tells us that US stock markets do markedly better under Democratic presidents than they do under Republican presidents...for what that's worth. 

So...based on my beliefs and predictions, how should we invest...over these next 5 months? 

We know that this market is hated by the vast majority of investment pro's. We know the so-called "smart money" has been out of this market (and still heavily short) since January's 15% collapse. And, we know that the percentage of investors invested in stocks is at a 19 year low.

As a contrarian, you likely already know where I am headed next. 

With each major index now above its 200 day moving average...even as unhealthy and volume-less as the rally continues to play out...I would be violating my own VRA Trading & Investing System by being short this market. 

I'll have much more to share on this topic going forward, along with the specific investments that we will make to profit from the forecasts and predictions that I have laid out in this update.

Final thought; absolutely, this market could crash at any time...nothing has changed from the "black swans waiting to happen". But if I've learned anything over my 31 years of doing this, it's this; going against my instincts and going against the VRA System is a recipe for failure. 

My job is to help you make money....to bash Mr. Markets head in...and to be completely transparent with you about my beliefs and my instincts in the process.

This is what I have done in this VRA Alert/Update. Now, it's time to prepare for the future. The Fix Is In...I am certain of it. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip 

PS; following our good friend Wayne Root's sterling job on on Bill Maher's HBO show "Real Time" Friday night, I will be Wayne's special guest next Thursday on his Las Vegas radio show...790TalkNow...which is not only about to be syndicated nationally, but has also been moved to "prime time, drive time" status (4-6 PM PST)...replacing the highly popular Mark Levin. And yes, I will lay out my "Fix is In" predictions for all to hear, on Thursdays broadcast.  

VRA Update: Precious Metals Are Speaking To Us

Good Monday morning all. If you're like me, you never own enough of an investment when it soars higher and you always own too much of an investment when it crashes lower. This is absolutely the case with mining stocks today...specifically the 600% gains in NUGT (3 x mining ETF) over just the last 3 months. This kind of move is the very definition of "parabolic".

This morning, lets make sure that we play the move higher in precious metals and mining stocks as intelligently as possible. We know that NUGT can swing 20% or more in a single day (its up another 6% in pre-market this morning), and these kinds of swings give us the opportunity to take excellent short term profits or buy more as the price declines. 

Fundamentally, you know my thoughts on PM's and mining stocks. We have just entered what, in my opinion, will be the single most explosive bull market in the history of gold/silver. I know...it's a bold claim...but its also the exact same prediction that I have been making for years (and I was very wrong from 2012-2015). At the same time, VRA Subscribers have booked more than 3000% in net profits over the years in my mining stock recommendations...gains that I believe will be dwarfed by the gains we will book over the next 2-3 years.

Gold is real money. Gold cannot be printed. Politicians cannot make and break promises with gold. The smart money is ALL over gold and silver...central banks have been snapping up every ounce possible, as PM's were artificially manipulated lower over these many years. 

But the biggie? As we continue to watch the two biggest bubbles in all of history burst (fiat currencies and sovereign debt), there will be one primary winner...precious metals. In my view, this is exactly why PM's have been on this historic 3 month run (the single best run in history)...they are speaking to us, loud and clear. PM's are telling us that a) inflation is on the way...massive levels of currency inflation are bubbling up globally, and b) central banks have lost control of the "system"....and once interest rates begin to move higher, there will be no stopping them. 

CURRENT VRA TECHNICALS - PM'S AND MINERS

First, while I highly doubt that we will sell our mining stocks or PM's at any point in the near future, timing is crucial for either lightning up or adding to your positions. 

For example, if you are not happy with the size of your holdings in PM's, buying today...after this historic 3 month run...could be a near term mistake...this move is heavily extended and due for a pullback in the next few trading sessions (GDX has jumped more than 10% in the last 2 days)

The VRA System shows GDX (mining ETF that underlies NUGT) has now reached an extended level. As you can see in this 10 year chart of GDX, we are bumping up against overhead resistance...from trading over the past 2 years. 

The reason for showing you a 10 year chart?? I wanted to make sure you saw the volume expansion...particularly over the last 18 months. Folks...this kind of price expansion, when added to the explosion in buying pressure, tells us pretty much everything we need to know. This move is real...and its only just beginning. 

As of Friday's close, GDX was right at 90% overbought on my momentum indicators. While its likely that the move will continue higher for now, we should not be surprised by a pullback...one that lasts 2-3 trading sessions and could take 10% off of the share price of GDX. And yes, a 10% correction in GDX would cause a 30% correction in NUGT.

But here's the problem with trying to be too cute with our timing...by the time the correction takes place, GDX could ramp another 10% higher first...taking NUGT up another 30%.

My point? As always, I am a huge fan of dollar cost averaging. Using pullbacks as an opportunity to buy more, and yes, even taking some short term profits as prices get too extended.

SHORT TERM KEY TO WATCH

Gold trades inversely to the US Dollar and this most powerful trend will continue for the foreseeable future (until Chinese Yuan PM trading kicks in...it has already started with their new exchange)  The USD has been incredibly weak of late, as this chart makes clear. 

 As you can see, the USD is right back to some incredibly oversold levels...a snapback rally is likely at some point this week as well. If you're looking to time some of your purchases, keep an eye on the USD.

As always, I will provide as much guidance as possible. We are now in nosebleed territory with precious metals. Traders love to shake people out of their positions with these short term sell-offs...just make sure you are prepared either way.

Again, ideally we want to add any new positions on pullbacks.

Keep this thought in mind. The investing public BARELY owns PM's or mining stocks. Many consider these to be investing relics (as my small sample twitter poll revealed over the weekend). Once the public jumps in, this move higher will take our breath away. 

Until next time, thanks again for reading...make it a good week

Kip

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