VRA Investment Update: Blood in the Streets, AKA Investor Panic, is A Buy Signal to Contrarians. WAR, W's Freudian Slip of Freudian Slips.

Good Thursday morning all. Multiple bases to cover this AM. Yesterdays disastrous trading (on the backs of Target/Walmart/Wall Street waking up to the fact that inflation is at least as high as it was some 40 years ago), had the feeling of a weight so heavy that we couldn’t even have a single mini-rally…we just kept sinking and sinking. The losses in our major indexes (-3.5% to -4.7%) negated much of the positive action from last Friday and this Tuesday and NYSE 92% downside volume of yesterday negated Tuesdays 92% upside volume. 

If bear market bottoms are ugly (they are), then yesterdays action absolutely confirms it…assuming we have in fact seen the lows. 

Still, we did hold our lows from last Thursday…when the Fear & Greed Index hit 6 and multiple technical readings took each broad market index to “extreme oversold on steroids”…and in addition the TRIN (Arms Index) hit a reading of 2.86, a clear sign of panic selling, AKA blood in the streets. Again, as contrarians, we like the TRIN at 2.86. Anything above 2 is both rare and panicky. 

Note: the levels of doom and gloom are close to as high as I can remember. Saw at least 10 articles that a recession is “certain” and that the move lower in the market “is just getting started”. 
Folks, these are the articles that we see at market bottoms…not at market tops…the MSM is rarely if ever right about their doom and gloom calls. 

In addition, Ed Hyman, our favorite economist and best on Wall Street for 50 years, is still saying “no recession in the US this year”. 

AAII — More Signs of Blood in the Street

Last nights AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came back with bulls at 26 and bears at 50. The 4 week moving average of bears is now at its highest levels since the financial crisis lows. Remember, just 3 weeks ago the AAII hit 15% bulls…a level that is not only one of the worst ever (I’ve voted in this survey since 1990) but typically marks near term lows. 
Panicky.

Fear & Greed Index

Last Thursdays reading of 6% bulls in the Fear & Greed Index has hardly improved…now at a reading of 9. Extreme Fear….Panicky

VRA Bottom Line: It’s days like this that are important in determining whether or not the final lows are in place. If the markets can overcome this bad news…and Targets news is a shock to Wall Street analysts (not exactly sure why after Walmart from yesterday)…and still find a way to rally higher, it will send chills down the backs of those short the market and/or heavy in cash. It’s not the news that matters most, it’s the markets reaction to that news.

This is why we own our VRA 10 Baggers. Companies with excellent mgt teams, solid finances and bright futures (in the right sectors) that must be bought during market insanity. 

You can find my focus stocks right here.

And, I still think the lows are in….at least for most stocks.

Here’s todays VRA Vid Cast: 

https://rumble.com/v15bbod-vra-midday-stock-market-commentary-may-19-2022.html

Wayne Allyn Root

Our great friend WAR has been saying, like us for close to 2 years and the start of the plandemic, that Team Biden (O’Biden, WEF-communists) are practicing “intentional destruction”. 
This is WAR’s GETTR post from yesterday….Wayne nails it. When will our R elected officials wake up??

Must watch clip. George W Bush just accidentally ripped his mask off in front of the whole world. Freud would like you all to know this is the greatest example of a Freudian Slip that’s happened in our lifetime. The unconscious is always letting you know what needs the light. 

Evil incarnate…that’s who this man is. As you watch the clip, realize that every point he makes is about the US, rather than Russia. Political prisoners (1/6), rigged elections (2020) and the brutal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine (as Bush says correctly, Iraq). 

Video: https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1527092111195226114?s=12&t=oX-GTLke9DlYfxDOdIA-SA

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Red-Pilled and Free; America's Future. Bear Market Action. Next Up, This Market Needs Capitulation.

Good Thursday morning all. 

Quick note: we’re getting an increasing number of emails alerting us to the fact that you aren’t getting our VRA Letters and VRA Podcast Alerts. You know the drill; censorship comes in many forms. As always, please check your spam folder. Obviously, alert us. And worst case, you can always find our work in your VRA Members Site (but emails are ideal). 

At least 10 different communication platforms and payment systems….not to mention JP Morgan Chase, which closed all of our corporate AND personal accounts without answering the question “why”?….have banned the VRA (and/or me personally) over the years. And its picked up speed over the last couple of years (Twitter on Monday). 

Permanently Suspended from Twitter

On the same day that Musk agrees to buy Twitter, I was banned from the platform (for the tweet below).
Like many had commented over the last 2years, I’m only surprised it didn’t happen sooner…moderating my (free) speech was never going to happen, on Twitter or any other social media platform, or in my VRA Letters.
The attacks against us here at the VRA have been ramping for some time now.

As to this particular tweet, it’s exactly what I’ve been saying since the jabs were released. They are brutally dangerous and giving them to kids is nothing short of criminal levels of child abuse. 
I believe the facts are on my side. The first amendment is too. 

You can follow me on Truth Social and GETTR @ KipHerriage

We should expect that it will only get worse. 

But…and if you’ve known me for any period of time you already know what comes next…there is a zero percent chance that I will ever self censor what I write and/or what I say. Just ain’t gonna happen. 

My greatest disappointment over the plandemic has been the number of Americans that have bent the knee to the State. Our founding fathers are rolling over in their graves. 

I’ve come to the sad realization that we could go the way of China tomorrow (or Canada) and the majority of Americans would simply shrug their shoulders. Meek, cowered and speaking in whispered voices so not to offend “anyone”, or God forbid, face the wrath of our overlords…that’s the average American today. 

But frankly it wasn’t all that much different during the founding of this great country. The majority feared the redcoats…wished to remain loyal to the king…but thanks to a few brave legends, America was born. 

Know this; America IS getting red-pilled. IMO, within the next few years a singular leader will rise. We may already know his/her name (Trump, DeSantis, Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Green) or we may not. But, it will take a single person that closes the deal against these communists…because make no mistake, they are absolutely going for the jugular. The plandemic was just the warm up act, and most Americans failed miserably. 

This person will lead America back to greatness. On a scale of 1–10, I go to 11 on this one. 

That’s the future we must all keep fighting for, today. 

As most reading this already know….because you were born red-pilled…it’s an amazing experience to witness what happens when you have this dialogue with friends, and even strangers. 90% are in complete agreement and once you start speaking truths of freedom and America First they open up like a can of worms….like it’s been bottled up for so long they’re about to bust! 

My experience, from speaking on stages around the world and meeting these amazing people globally, is that everyone is starving for freedom and that they recognize the truth when they see it and when they hear it. Once we start the dialogue, just sit back and watch the magic of free speech kick in. It’s not more complicated than that. And BTW, once we start that dialogue…if you happen to be speaking to a communist…you’ll find that they whither like an old grape. Because, deep down, the communist knows that they represent weakness…they represent losing. They will literally put their heads down and walk away. 

Because freedom, and the free speech that derives from it, can never be stopped.

VRA Market Update

The last two trading session were not pretty, but wow are we ever hitting heavily to extreme oversold levels on our VRA Momentum Oscillators.

Textbook bear market action, as the semis, nasdaq and Russell 2000 each broke their 2/24 lows, leaving just the S&P 500 and Dow Jones above their 2/24 “first shots fired” lows. S&P 500 is 61 points above its 2/24 lows with the DJ just 17 points above its 2/24 lows.

What we need is capitulation. We need a sharply lower open that puts the fear of God into investors and takes the put/call ratio up to 1.5. With our markets fighting the Fed and fighting aggressive (bear market) short sellers, we remain in risk-off mode.

Today we got this shocker from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. Bulls are down to 16.4% with bears up to a massive 59.4%, the largest number of bears since March 2009.

3/09 marked THE lows of the financial crisis….I know…I called those lows within 60 seconds and we crushed the market over the next 6 months with gains of several hundred percent. 

Seeing this report makes it even harder to be ultra bearish. As a reminder, when bulls drop below 20% (its only happened 10 times), the markets have been up 100% of the time over the next 6–12 months, with gains of 13% and 23% (on average). One key point; the results aren’t nearly as bullish over the short term (when bulls break 20%)…it’s roughly a 50/50 proposition over the next 1–2–3 months. But, from 3 month on the odds are in the bulls favor. Then, the odds are REALLY in the favor or bulls over the next 6–12 months.

VRA Bottom Line; we are either at or nearing extreme oversold levels of our VRA Momentum Oscillators, a level that has served as a reversal signal for more than a year. Bear market rallies are powerful…even more powerful than bull market rallies. However, once this rally tires, it will likely be met with selling pressure on the back end, at least until we get a true capitulation event. 

Ideally, I would like to see a market bottom as Apple and Amazon announce earnings on today after the close. We want capitulation on those moves lower (which I expect).

Key point: we need capitulation. Markets like this do not bottom without them…in my experience.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Improvement Under the Hood. 4 VRA Horsemen. Tax Day, Mask Day.

Good Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement. Pretty remarkable that Nasdaq advance/decline was positive while nasdaq also put up its first +100 new 52 week highs since January. Hey, its a start. And again, with NFLX getting smashed 36% (-$125/sh), yesterday could have been especially ugly. 

In addition, our 4 VRA Horsemen (Housing, Trannies, Semis and Banks) once again put up gains on the day. Folks, as long as these groups hold their 2/24 to 3/14 lows, we’re looking at a pattern of higher lows to keep building on. The big negative remains the fact that each broad market index remains below its 200 dma, although the S&P 500 is right on the line. Remember, we need to see 7 straight days above the 200 dma before we can have confidence that the 200 day has a solid chance of holding. 

Markets are higher this morning. DJ +250 and Nasdaq +150.

Last nights AAII Sentiment Survey came in with bulls up 3 to 18.9% and bears -5 to 43.9%. History tells us that when AAII bulls drop below 20% its a remarkably great time to buy stocks, assuming your window is at least 6 months out. Going back to the origins of this survey (1986), when bulls drop below 20% you would have made money in the S&P 500 100% of the time over the following 6–12 months. It’s only happened 9 times, prior to now, with an average gain over the next 6 months of 13% and an average gain over the next year of more than 20%. High probability repeating pattern.

As the broad markets have rallied, precious metals and miners have been soft. The pattern of hitting 90% OB on stochastics and pausing…we’ve seen this pattern repeat everywhere over the last year +…has briefly struck metals/miners as well. Importantly, these pauses are short-lived. Below, in the chart of GDX (miner ETF) we see it clearly; from the birth of the current breakout (early February) GDX has seen support right at 100% of the time at the 21 ema (purple line), with dips through the 21 ema lasting no more than a day. This morning GDX is trading down 1%, roughy .50/share above the 21 ema.

Use this pause as a buying opportunity in the miners. Our positions in VRA 10 Baggers have held up like the beasts they’ve been all year (learn more at VRAInsider.com). 

Tax Day, Mask Day

So this week, they matched up tax day in the US with “masks-be-gone” day…we’ll take it I guess, but that’s still a 99:1 losing proposition. Taxes are theft and cloth masks were always a joke. 

Next up…and this should be happening now….all jab mandates MUST be removed. Then, we must re-hire everyone that was fired for not bending the knee for legitimate medical or religious exemptions…for any reason whatsoever…we simply did not want to be forcibly injected with experimental poisons over a flu that 99.9% recover from. After everyone is re-hired, pay them for their damages and lost wages. Then, every employee that was forced to take these jabs should be compensated “handsomely”. 

Where might all this money come from? Big pharma can kick off the contributions. And, if we can send 100’s of billions of dollars each year to foreign countries, we can certainly afford to take care of our own. 

I am so ready to be done with CV insanity. We all are. But, our work is just beginning. Nuremberg-like trials must take place. Those guilty of these criminal levels of medical malpractice must pay the price. Doctors that backed, endorsed and prescribed these jabs must pay with their licenses. First, do no harm.

Frauds like Fauci, Gates, Imperial College, Birx, Wallensky…obviously the criminals in HHS, CDC, NIH and big pharma must face public nazi-like trials so this evil never ever happens again. 

For me, this is what the midterms are all about. Every R that’s running should have Nuremberg 2 at the top of their platform. That and impeaching Biden and investigating/prosecuting everyone that helped rig the 2020 election. Facebook/Zuckerberg and Twitter near the top of that list (another reason we’re so interested in Musk gaining access to the State secrets inside of Twitter).

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

Please join us each day after the market closes for our Daily VRA Investing Podcast!
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VRA Investment Update: AAII Sentiment Survey Shocker. Excellent Market Action, Internals. The Breakout in Miners Continues.

Good Thursday morning all. Don’t Forget: The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Two big developments: last night the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at just 15.8% bulls, one of the 5–6 lowest readings on record. I’ve voted in this survey since the late 1980’s and yes, I voted bearish for this weeks survey. Sentiment ultimately catches up with all of us. Folks, an important market low is either just around the corner or is already here. 

Then one hour ago, Elon Musk made an offer to buy Twitter for $54.20 in cash, stating that he intends to take the company private. As I wrote to our member’s earlier this week, I expected Musk to make a play for the company, just not this fast. And taking Twitter private is a genius move. But, his $54.20 offer will not get the job done. Musk will likely be forced to raise his buyout price. 

A bidding war wouldn’t surprise me…I half expect it. The elite ruling class/deep state will not like the idea of the planets de facto town square falling into Musks’ hands and once again welcoming free speech. If someone else makes an offer for Twitter, know this; that person/company will not be a friend to democratic institutions…they will be connected to the deep state.

BTW, this creates massive opportunities for VRA 10 Bagger Trump Media (DWAC). One, the valuations for this sector will increase sharply and two, if Twitter is going private, guess who that leaves as the best game in town among public social media co’s? This is big time bullish news for DWAC…absolutely own this stock here. 

AAII coming in last night with bulls down 9% to just 15.8% and bears up 7% to 48.4%. As many are pointing out this AM, these bullish readings did not even get this low during the financial crisis, nor during the depths of CV insanity. 15.8% bulls is a shocker. 

What does it mean? Sentiment Trader is out with this chart (below), showing what happened in the S&P 500 when readings dropped below 19% bulls. The next 1 week to 1 month is spotty to bearish, but then the tide turns. From 3 months to 1 year later the markets are consistently and solidly higher, in close to 100% of the cases. 1 year later the average gain is 24%, with the S&P 500 higher 100% of the time.

We’ve yet to see these kinds of extreme sentiment readings in the other sentiment surveys that we track, but they are certainly trending in that ‘heavily bearish” direction. Again, its not possible for us to be overtly bearish with AAII readings like this.

Yesterdays trading was “impressive” all around. The markets finished at the highs of the day, with internals that were garlic strong. A follow through day today is important.

The Breakout Continues!

Precious metals, and especially the miners, look to be building a head of steam. This is what the beginning of a powerful breakout looks and feels like. If you’re a bit older like me you might remember the bull market from 2003 to 2011 for this group. Based on my memories and the data we’ve been sharing here in these pages, I believe this is equivalent to 2004. If I’m right, every pullback must be bought…and don’t even consider taking profits.

GDX hit another fresh 18 month high yesterday, as the miners continue to significantly outperform both gold and silver. Bullish tell. Next up, if this group follows historical trading norms, both gold and silver should soon get legs (they follow the miners). 

On a technical note; gold, silver and miners (GDX/NUGT) have yet to hit overbought levels on the VRA System and each of our VRA buy rec’s in this group remain a buy. Definitely keep buying.

Finally, and I’m still stumped by this, the trading volumes for this group remain on the low side. With 2 hours to go, just 15 million shares have traded in GDX. This will change at some point…how does it not? And when it does, I expect to see a parabolic move higher.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

Good Thursday morning all. We just put out a VRA Alert to our member’s that we wanted to share here.

Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

To understand why gold/silver may double over the next 3–5 yrs, with the miners jumping 300% to 500% in price, you must first understand the Feds history of major policy mistakes. Top of that list are their 17 straight rate hikes from ‘04-‘06, leading directly to the crash in housing, then the markets and economy and golds move from $375/oz to $1923/oz by 2011. Points 1,3 & 4 in the chart below represent Fed rate hike cycles (04 & 16) and the QE that followed (09 & 20) and of course the massive move higher in gold, silver and miners. 

The next rate hike cycle is underway now….followed almost certainly by the next series of Fed policy mistakes. It’s a repeating pattern that has become high probability.

And this chart tells the tale. GDX to S&P 500 relative strength chart (back to 2011) gives you an idea of just how cheap the miners are to the broad markets, on a relative strength basis. Abysmally weak. Folks, the miners would have to rally for “years” just to fill this gap. We made the same case for energy stocks last year…and they’re seeing their sharp moves higher…but today, its the miners that are trading at historically low levels. And importantly, all of this is taking place while at the same time investors barely own the miners, with less than 3% of global portfolios having a position. This is the PERFECT contrarian buy signal, for a group that is ready to soar (and I haven’t even mentioned the global debt and fiat currency pictures). Now, imagine what this group might do should gold hit our target of $3500 and silver $60. Generational wealth creation.

We see it in this important chart as well; the 1 year chart of the relative strength of miners to gold. Beginning last October the miners began to outperform gold, but that outperformance really began to kick in in late January with miners going near parabolic compared to the underlying commodity. This is a classic tell. Investors want to be aggressively long this group when the miners are leading.

We like everything about precious metals and miners, both fundamentally and technically;

- The world has more debt and fiat currency in circulation than ever, with a system run (completely) by the financial engineering of global central banks (led by J Powell and US Fed). What could go wrong…

- Inflation is at 40 year highs and based on multiple important indicators/inputs (oil, food prices, wages, etc) the Fed is fighting a battle that it has most typically won by putting the economy into a recession, hence all of the inverted yield curves that started popping up over the last 2 weeks. Again, inflation is always “currency inflation”…aka money printing…and protection against inflation has been one of the primary reasons to own PM’s and miners, from the birth of fiat currency. It is already beginning to appear that the Fed is planning, on the back end, for more QE. 

- Fundamentally, this is an eerily similar set-up to 2004–2006, when the Fed was hiking rates 17 straight times, which sent PM’s and Miners (and stocks, btw) into major bull markets, followed by the housing/financial crash and launch of QE in 2009, which sent this group parabolic. To be clear, this set-up is bullish both for PM’s/miners and stocks. 

- PM’s and miners love rate hike cycles (as we’ve been covering quite a bit of late). The biggest moves in this group (since 2003) have come in this exact environment and this exact timing. 

- Multiple Golden Cross buy signals over the last day to month in gold, silver and GDX (both 50/200 and 100/200). High probability buy signals. 

- The miners (GDX) have been outperforming gold since October, with near parabolic outperformance over the last month. When the miners are beating gold on a relative strength basis, it’s a classic “tell” that this group should be owned aggressively. And the leverage is always in the miners. 

And this chart of GDX is the final tell:

GDX is above every moving average, with what I call a “catapult” chart setup. Following the “first shots fired” top and recovery move higher, should GDX break $40.26 (52 week high) we can expect the next parabolic move higher, first targeting $44/45 and then $50. GDX had a 50/200 dma golden cross on 3/11 and a 100/200dma golden cross yesterday. Volume is returning but should now begin to ramp. GDX is a buy on each of our VRA Momentum Oscillators with lots of room to run before hitting overbought, with near perfect trend line support in RSI and MFI. We should also get a fresh MACD buy signal within 2 days.

We are targeting massive gains from this group in both our trading positions and our VRA 10 Baggers. To learn more join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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