Since June 29th, or just over 3 weeks, the VRA has booked fresh profits of 236%...not a bad 3 weeks, but now, it's time to look forward. Where is the market headed next, and where will our future profits come from?
To answer a couple of emails that have already come in, NO....I am not quiet ready to go short the market. We could be missing out on an opportunity to make money as the overall stock market drops, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger...but yes...the time could be fast approaching.
Ideally, here's what I would like to see; Apple reported earnings after the market closed today. Should Apple have reported a good number (which they did not) and the stock fail to move higher, this would be considered a "breakdown", and would also mark a triple top in the stock since February. With the narrowing action that I'm seeing in the market already, combined with poor market internals all around (new highs/new lows, up/down volume, plus very poor money flows and a plummeting money supply figure), the VRA Trading & Investing System would consider a major Apple breakdown as "soft" confirmation that a short term top (at minimum) is in place for the market. These are the kinds of "tells" that long term market pro's look for...we are as well.
WHEN we take action, we will once again use leveraged ETF's and put options to profit from the downside action.
1) PRECIOUS METALS: The breakdown in PM's and miners is as ugly as it gets. And, because it coincides with the breakdown in oil and every other major commodity that I track, I don't know that we have enough reasons to believe that a final bottom is in place (although yesterdays selling sure did resemble a selling climax...wow...huge volumes, in fact, the LARGEST one day volume on record in GDX. We may well look back and see that yesterdays lows were THE lows). I am not removing our buy recommended PM stocks from the VRA...I have far too much confidence in their long term potential to do so. Remember, nothing has changed with our global debt scenario. The collapse that we've just seen take place in Greece will be repeated time and again in the years going forward. Ultimately, the coming calamity in fiat currency and sovereign debt defaults will cause precious metals to soar to prices that most cannot fathom today. But no one said that it would be easy...and making money in PM's and miners certainly has not been.
2) MONEY MANAGEMENT: Folks, please listen to me on this point...and it's one that we will address further on our conference call next Tuesday, which literally everyone should make an effort to attend (and no, it will not be recorded); the days of buy and hold investing are over...I don't see them returning...at least not in the next few years. Unless you are ok with making a few percentage points with index funds or mutual funds (if that...most are losing money), you must become at least somewhat active in your approach to money management. It's your money after all...and no one cares more about it than you. Letting it just sit there makes little to no sense...not in today's world. If your investment professional is telling you otherwise, show him the VRA results...then compare results with his/her advice.
Over the last couple of years, I know from working with many of you that have adopted the VRA approach to investing, which can be summed up like this: "we aren't day traders...but with the help of the VRA Trading & Investing System, we have a time-tested formula for consistently beating the stock market like a red-headed step-child." I've been at it with the VRA for over 12 years now, and I fully intend to be here doing this for another 12 (God willing). Should you desire to take full advantage of our approach at the VRA, I have one major mindset point to share with you: with the start of each new day, view your portfolio "from this point moving forward"....instead of, "the things that happened in the past are overtly influencing my investment decisions of today". If this point is not clear to you, I will get into more detail on it on the call next week. This point is MOST important...and it's the exact mindset of every smart money investor that I know.