VRA Update: Using the VRA to Make $250,000 - In One Year. Plus VRA System Update

Jan 19, 2016

Good Tuesday morning all. Yes, we are still in the early stages of what will be a rolling bear market, ultimately taking stocks down another 25% plus. I've seen nothing that is changing my mind, and the VRA System seems to get more bearish with each passing week.

This doesn't meant that we will not have bear market rallies....we always have and we always will, which is why we've been busy booking some rather huge profits of late. 

At the end of this update we're sharing some feedback from a long time VRA Subscriber. And yes, we fully plan to book massive profits going forward as well. 

As of Friday's close, here is the latest VRA System Forecast:

My short term, proprietary momentum indicators show us at 91% oversold...each time that we get close to reaching a highly oversold reading of 95% plus (along with heavy, panic selling), the market manages to rally for a day or two. This may seem like a welcome relief to the bulls, but it's actually the worst thing that they could hope for. For us to reach even a decent technical set-up...one that might allow the markets to stage a 1-3 week counter-move higher...we should first get that highly oversold, panic driven selling climax. And so far, we've seen nothing like this. 

Instead, we get a "controlled burn"...which lulls investors into thinking that the lows are near, if they just hold onto their stocks. Sure, we hit 300% on the put/call ratio on Friday, and in a normal correction I would say that the short term lows are in place. But just as we are seeing in the oil markets, I see nothing that would tell us the final lows are in place.

Just over a week ago, I placed a poll on Twitter (@kherriage)...one that many of you likely voted in. The end result was that 70% believed stocks were going much lower, while just 30% believed we were near a bottom. Bearish, absolutely....but nowhere near where we will see these numbers at an actual bottom (85-95% bearish).

This weekend I placed a similar poll on Twitter, but asking the question about oil prices. With an hour to go before the poll ends (and more than 1500 votes in), 57% believe oil is going "much lower", while 43% say that we are "near the bottom".  

A huge thanks to everyone that is both following me on Twitter and voting in our polls! But folks, as you can clearly see, the numbers are nowhere near where they should be for any kind of bearish capitulation.

For those that might say, "but Kip, surely you don't believe there is anything scientific about your Twitter polls", and while I absolutely get your point, I have given this quite a bit of thought...and I believe we can use my Twitter polls to our advantage...to continue booking world class returns (along with VRA System of course).

I'll explain more in future updates, but consider this for the time being; if we assume that most following me on Twitter are "like-minded"...and studies show that this is absolutely how Twitter works...then we can also assume that most following me are "already" highly bearish and expecting sharply lower prices. 

So, for my polls to reflect just "mildly bearish" readings, tells me that even MY group of followers remain complacent. Give this some thought...because I can assure you that smart money investors the world over are looking for "market tells" just like this one. More to follow...but if you have yet to vote, please do so now (and if you aren't following me on Twitter, then you know exactly what else to do as well). 

Bottom line: I believe its this level of complacency that will doom many investors to painful large losses going forward. And I will continue to use any dead cat bounces to ensure that we keep "bashing Mr. Markets head in"!

Finally for now, a big shout out to PR from South Carolina on his success in using the VRA. As PR knows, his results would have been even better if he had not missed some key buy/sell rec's. But hey, it's hard to quibble over $255,000 in net profits. 

"Kip, all I can say is “thank you!”. I’ve been with you for 3 years but decided last year to follow you, and to do exactly as you recommended. I didn’t have any expectation of these results. In addition to the VRA, I joined Extreme Options in September. My results - VRA account turned $40k into more than $200k. Extreme options turned $25k into $128k.The crazy part is that I missed 4-5 very profitable trades. 

$65k that turned into $320k. 400% in profits!  As long as you have the VRA, I will be a loyal subscriber. How the hell you do this almost perfectly I still have no clue, but my entire family thanks you! PR - S. Carolina"

These are the emails, tweets and phone calls that we love to get here at the VRA. It's why I do what I do. But as I've said many times before, I can make all of the successful rec's possible, but it's your money and your decisions that deserve the credit. I think it's safe to say that PR has been "staying frosty".   

Until next time, thanks again for reading...make it a good week.

Kip

vraletter.com

VRA Crash Update: Do Not Fight the Tape, Do Not Fight The FED

Jan 13, 2016

The markets are rolling over hard. Opened 100 points higher (DJ), and as I've said each and every day, "Sell/Short any bear market that opens sharply higher" This ones a real Investing101 folks...and now...the DJ has closed down 364 points. Incredibly, and in something I have not seen in 30 years, according to the VRA System, investor complacency has actually risen over the last two weeks. Delusional...

A Flash crash looks very likely...as always, most investors will sell right at the bottom...many thousands of Dow points lower.

I've been listening/reading the "gurus" and have yet to hear a single one say "Don't Fight the Tape, Don't Fight The FED"...as it applies to where we are NOW. The FED is "raising" rates and the tape has turned "negative". Wake up guru's...this is a most important market fact...one that we won't ever forget here at the VRA.

Bottom line: if you are long this market, you are fighting the FED!

Rigging the VIX

The VIX Index (volatility) is STILL just 25?? In this market?? You know my thoughts...."somebody" wants to keep the VIX low so people don't freak out...which is exactly what happens in the investment world each time the VIX breaks 25. This is absolutely a market "tell". The question is, how long can they continue to use it to support stock prices. My guess...not much longer at all. 

NEW BEAR MARKET TRADING MINDSET??

THINK ABOUT THIS; when we are short the market, we get concerned when the markets are heavily oversold...and for good reason...it could well be headed for a reversal and a move higher. 

But think back to the 7 year bull market we just came out of. When "that" bull market was at 90-95% overbought, in MANY instances it would simply keep moving higher! That's the kind of strength that was behind the most recent bull market. Thanks QE!

So....stay with me here...why shouldn't the reverse be true as well?? In a brutal bear market, I believe we should get used to the markets continuing to go sharply lower, even as they are continually oversold, and in the 90-95% range. Let's not forget this interesting possibility folks...

The internals are once again pathetic...with a 3 day weekend coming up, we could easily see the sellers get "panicky". 

Stay Frosty...make sure you are positioned to survive the recession (or worse) and bear market.

Kip

VRA Update: Happy New Year, New Twitter Survey, Recession On the Way

Dec 31, 2015

Good Thursday morning all and a Happy New Year. Gotta say, getting New Years wishes from parts of the world where they are "already" bringing in the New Year always feels strange...especially when it's 8 am here in Sugar Land (a city so sweet, it had to be named after processed poison...I mean, sugar cane). 

Next up: Please go to my twitter page (@kherriage) and take my latest survey. The question is: Will the FED manipulate the Dow +220 today; so it's positive for the year? (3 choices follow).

Market Update

I highly encourage EVERYONE to take a bit of time over the long weekend to get up to speed on my most recent VRA Updates, posted here, at this blog. Let me repeat; this is the most bearish that I have been in...well, since 2008. For those that may have forgotten, that's the year the market crashed...financial crisis and all. We also made close to 800% as the markets crashed...recovered...crashed...you get the picture. 

If you're using a financial advisor that has you long this market, you may want to ask "what are you on"? As in...what meds.

Remember these most important points:

1) In the average recession, the S&P 500 loses 36%. Hmmm...what might the markets do in a GLOBAL recession/depression?? AKA, the beginning of the end of the Debt Super Cycle.

2) the last time the Dow closed negative on the year? yep...2008. Kinda interesting...don't ya think?

3) Then, there's this. The last time the Dow closed down in a "pre-election year" was....drum roll, please...1939. Let's see, what was kicking off in 1939? Yep...WWII. That's not ominous, at all...

1939-1945....six years of living hell on earth. To our global powers that be, get your sh*t together...no ones going to win in the next world war. But man oh man, do the dominos seem to be falling.

Finally, the markets opening weak today. Oil is close to its yearly low....I'm afraid that "lower for longer" is going to be the case. Dow's down 130 points as I type.

Folks, every bit of research that I have done points to one thing; 2016 will be the year of pain for bulls. The selling pressure could overwhelm even the Plunge Protection Team, or PPT (yes, it's real...it absolutely exists...but even the FED answers to a higher authority. As in, the "global cabal of bankers" that control central banks...that rule most everything financial).

We could not be positioned any better. In 2016, if you are "long" the broad markets...you will be "wrong". At least until we reach those tradeable short term bottoms....which we will trade into on the long side as well.  

All my best for the New Year! 2016 does not have to be a downer...it certainly won't be with the gains that we will book here at the VRA.

Until next year...thanks again for reading....Stay Frosty!

 Kip

PS: Don't forget to vote! My twitter handle: @kherriage

AND....Holy Cow! The Chicago PMI was just released....it came in at just 42.9! Last months was only 48.7 (signaling possible recession), but todays was a HUGE miss to the downside. NOT good news...now, you'll see lots and lots of "gurus" saying, "damn...are we really heading into recession?"

YEP...we are...globally...or worse.

Remember my earlier thoughts about "why the FED actually raised rates?" Folks...what if they had no choice...when debts deflate (aka no buyers), guess what MUST happen? You got it...rates spike...like BIG time. Hmmm...wonder how long it might be until the MSM begins to report this story???

BTW....this is EXACTLY when we want to own gold. I'll have my 2016 Predictions/Forecasts soon as well. Guess what one of my top picks will be...the yellow metal. After a 4 year bear mkt, THIS IS THE YEAR TO OWN GOLD...the coming bull market in PM's will take the worlds breath away. And, it will last for multiple years.

vraletter.com

VRA Update: Trading Strategy - From Now to Year End

The markets sold off aggressively on Monday, with the Dow losing 179 points, or 1%, and each major index suffering similar percentage losses.

We've been highly overbought for some time, but this correction looks to be much more about the future of interest rates. More specifically, this weakness is about the FED and the month of December...will they in fact raise rates, following their meeting on Dec 15th and 16th. 

You may remember my thoughts...but let's put them in one place, just to be clear:

First, after waiting 9 1/2 years to raise rates, I see NO WAY that the FED would raise rates just 9 days prior to Christmas ...a borderline insane decision that would ruin far more than just the "spirit" of the shopping season. 

Can't you just hear business leaders, from all over the country, saying the following right after holiday sales stink (once again), with the stock prices of retailers having also collapsed in price: 

"Ms. Yellen, retailers all over the country depend on a solid holiday shopping season for as much as 75% of their annual revenues and profits. The FED's decision to raise rates...for the first time in almost a decade and incredibly, just one week prior to Christmas...has completely destroyed our hopes of turning a profit."

In reality, turning a profit would be most retailers last thought...staying in business would quickly become their primary concern.

Second, assuming I am correct...and I am confident enough to use 90% as my figure...here's the most likely outcome over the next 2-3 weeks...including another prediction that no one else sees coming today:

1) The stock market will continue to work off its overbought condition, with additional selling pressure coming from those that mistakingly believe a rate hike WILL take place.

2) At some point in the next 15-30 days, and on the heels of heavy selling pressure in the markets, the FED will do something that will stun the "experts". 

Without even waiting for their December meeting, Yellen will make a special announcement to the world that "a December rate increase is OFF the table"...hoping against hope that their confusing indecision and God-awful timing, has not already ruined the holiday shopping season. 

Should the above scenario play itself out, everyone reading this will want to STAY FROSTY:

1) Make sure you are positioned for profits on the way down

2) As the markets drop, from their current overbought levels to oversold, use that weakness to take profits on your short positions, then reverse course and go very long stocks.

Obviously, we'll use the VRA Trading & Investing System to ensure we are positioned correctly. 

If my predictions hold up, we can use this advance game plan to book some incredible profits (on top of the 830% in net gains for 2015).

Until next time, thanks again for reading...

Kip

PS; I honestly cannot believe that seasoned veteran after seasoned market veteran is now saying the FED will raise rates in December. Do they not have calendars? Do they not have common sense???

I know the FED makes huge mistakes all the time...with their 1000+ economists on the payroll...but raising rates for the first time in a decade...just before the holidays?? 

Insanity is the word that comes to mind...but hey, I'm sure the FED will make their decision based purely on the "data" and without any thoughts whatsoever on how a rate hike might affect the stock market :))

VRA Update: Is the Housing Market Really Strong?

VRA Update: Is the Housing Market Really Strong?

Oct 29, 2015

Literally every market analyst has been saying the same thing; the housing market is strong, and it's telling us that the economic recovery is in good shape. Certainly, the FED has been making this their case for higher rates....but is it actually the case? 

Clearly, it WAS the case for most of 2015...as the chart below makes clear...UNTIL late August, more specifically until that big 8/24 sell off that took the Dow down 1100 points in a single day.

In what I believe could be a most important disconnect, the HGX (housing index) is down more than 8% in the last two months, while the stock market has rallied back sharply. Troubling sign for the US economy, and likely an advance indicator of where stocks are headed.

In fact, pending home starts were just released, and for the second straight month they missed expectations, and by a wide margin. Instead of a positive 1% number, we got -2.3%...the lowest level for the past 12 months. 

As we've seen in the recent past, as goes housing, so goes the economy. Unless this chart can turn up, US economic growth will continue to lag expectations. In other words....no FED rate hike.

Instead of a FED rate hike, we will almost certainly begin to hear talk about additional economic stimulus, and even MORE QE. Hard to imagine for most, I know...but this is what a global economic crisis looks like...as it begins to unfold. Sadly, this is a preview of our economic future to come.

Let's keep a close eye on this chart of housing...looks very much like it is rolling over.

Kip