VRA Investment Update: We Are Buyers. Ted Parsons, From the Grave. Interview with WAR. BTC & Taiwan. Russia Deja-Vu.

Good Friday morning all. 

While everyone was panicking yesterday morning, we were buyers.

We never forget the people in our lives that made the biggest impressions. Professionally, that’s my first mentor Ted Parsons (RIP Ted). Ted’s mentor worked on Wall Street during the crash and Great Depression…even as a clueless 23 year old rookie broker, I understood the significance of that...and its still rare when a day goes by that I don’t hear his voice in my head.

It was Ted that taught me “on first shots fired, sell your hedges and buy stocks”, which was our exact war game plan going into Russia-Ukraine.  

Nasdaq, from yesterdays lows, has now rallied close to 1000 points in just 24 hours. We have 6 positions in the VRA Portfolio that are up between 10% to 22%, over this time frame, plus we steered clear of buying anything tied to a hedge (energy, precious metals, miners, shorts). In Parabolic Options yesterday we booked 230% profits in GDX (gold miner ETF) calls.

Ted, even from the grave, you’re still crushing it.

Next Up: Interview with WAR

I was on The Wayne Root Show last night with our great friend WAR. Wayne follows our work closely here. In addition to being a great friend of almost 20 years, he’s also been a VRA Member for nearly that long. Last night we covered what happens next; Russia takes Ukraine entirely…why wouldn’t Putin conquer Ukraine after Bidens welcome mat (again) and that embarrassing presser from yesterday. Following Ukraine, Wayne and I fully expect China will take Taiwan. And we got into what happens next in the markets and US economy. 

LINK: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/kip-herriage-live-on-war-now-with-wayne-allyn-root-22422?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

Bitcoin, Watch Closely for Signs of China/Taiwan

We covered this chart and price action of Bitcoin as well, with respect to China taking Taiwan. You’ve heard me get into this on our VRA Podcasts. There is no better or faster method for the elite insiders to quickly move massive amounts of liquid wealth out of a country. Does this help to explain these huge moves in BTC?

1) In the chart below we see a 409% move higher in BTC, just before and in the period immediately following the Las Vegas massacre, as Saudi princes were abducted, tortured and their immense wealth pursued by the Saudi king.  

2) The next major geopolitical event…CV insanity…saw BTC soar 1540%. No, I cannot explain this…I only see direct evidence that BTC was almost certainly used to move huge amounts of money. 

3) And Afghanistan. Beginning a few weeks before the US announced they would be abandoning the country, BTC began to zoom higher, rising some 130% by that November. 



We have no direct evidence that BTC soared during these 3 major events, due to the wealthy transferring their money. But, these moves did occur. 

And now, following the invasion of Ukraine…with it becoming increasingly likely that China will take Taiwan, BTC is once again on the move….jumping from $34,300 yesterday to $39,200 this AM.  

Are wealthy Taiwanese using BTC to quickly move their money of local banks? Would you? 

Watching and listening closely…..

Russia-Russia-Russia (RSX and RUSL) 

For those that were with the VRA in 2014 you may remember our trades in RUSL (2 x Russia ETF). Between RUSL and RUSL calls we booked net profits of more than 500% in about 3-4 days. 

This was when Russia took Crimea. 

I'm having deja-vu. 

Below is the chart of RSX, the un-leveraged Russia ETF. Its approaching the same oversold conditions from the March 2020 CV insanity lows. 
We are working on potential strategies now, but when you check out RUSL you'll see that its fallen from $38 in October of last year to below $7 yesterday. 

Credible reports out of Europe; the EU has already told its allies that it will NOT go along with kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system...that would present some pretty frightening downside for the global financial system. In my mind, this was a worst case scenario that WAS possible. Biden, in his joke of a presser, confirmed this as well. 

Frankly, Russia will pay a steep price for their actions, but with a debt to GDP of less than .30 (the US is 1.3), and massive commodity assets, Russia will come out of this. And they will have sent a message to the world that additional NATO forces on their doorstep is an error in the making. 

BTW, what kind of dirt do you think Putin has on the Biden Crime Family? The leverage here is with Russia...that's my read.  

Just introducing you to the idea now but we see some interesting possibilities in RSX and/or RUSL. 

Here in the US we remain optimistic

The economy remains strong…corporate earnings continue to grow…and because of the nature of this structural bull market, it’s been my view that the two things the elite need to keep their constituency in line…a strong economy and stock market…will continue to hold up. 

This remains my view today. We are witnessing a market correction…one that is (as of today) taking each broad market index into "extreme oversold levels" on some of our VRA momentum oscillators (stochastics). 

And importantly...

- We know from investor sentiment, like the AAII survey, which hit 19% bulls last week (it may be 15% this week), that this is the time to be a “buyer”…not a “seller”. 

- We know that the markets actually “rise” on early rate hikes…not “decline”. 

- We know that we have a wall of worry that is now solidly “fearful”. 

Our focus is on the markets and VRA Portfolio positioning, but I can’t help but find these times so beneath what the great people of this country deserve. 

Yesterdays Biden presser was embarrassingly awful, even for him. Freedom, my ass. 



Will the left ultimately view Putin as they view George W Bush today, with love and affection? 




Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: The Global Fascism of Psychopathic Megalomaniacs. Back Up The Truck. Gold and Miners Breaking Out.

Even as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…these folks no longer have an excuse. Fascism is here, not just in Canada, but in the US as well.

Even in Texas and Florida, workers by the millions have been forced to take experimental jabs…over an illness with a 99.8% recovery rate…or face losing their jobs. Many have said “no…I’m not bending the knee”…and were then terminated. And its happening in numbers 10 x this in other states. I hear from people like this day after day after day…including from VRAMembers…heartbreaking emails, texts and calls. To add insult to injury, families and friends are being split up, divided, at one anothers throats…all over the relative nothingness that is rona. I laugh these days when someone “ats me” with “but Kip, millions have died…”. 

Uh-huh….I believe that like I believe Biden got 81 million votes. Died “with/from rona” might be the worst kept secret about CV insanity. As the CDC has admitted, roughly 6% of these deaths came solely from CV. Brutal lies…that can only originate from psychopathic megalomaniacs. 

And our kids…for me, this is the toughest part of the plandemic to cover, research and talk about. A generation of kids lives completely upended. For many, destroyed. Their entire lives, they will never forget the controls, the jabs, the evilness of masking. It’s engrained in their DNA. The hoax of climate change, which placed the very real fear into an entire generation that they might not live to be 20, 30 or 40, as all of earths inhabitants could go the way of the dinosaur, was evil enough. But now, our babies have to endure the satan-like depravity of CV insanity.

Of course, none of this is just a mistake or a horrible set of decisions from our WEF leaders. It’s all purposeful. Evil incarnate. 

If these events don’t fit the definition of “fascism on earth”, what would? 

I covered all of this, plus the markets of course, in our VRA Podcast on Wednesday. For those that may be new to this conversation, I start at the beginning…at least the beginning of the last 20 years, the worst 20 year stretch in American history…with the events of 9/11. Because everything happening today is connected to 9/11. I’ll repeat what I’ve said for more than 15 years, in these pages and on stages around the world; the US will likely never heal until the truth of 9/11 is known. Frankly, the world won’t heal. When psychopathic megalomaniacs are allowed to get away with something this evil, why would they stop there? They would not…and they have not. 

Here’s 30 minutes of me connecting the dots…this is my life’s work…and my hope is that CV insanity has begun to wake enough good people up in time to stop what’s coming. It may already be too late. And hey, I cover the markets too…there’s something for everyone, even if you’re not into conspiracy facts.

VRA Podcast Link: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-kip-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-feb-15-2022?si=7d98d69c669d45728036fec548815aeb&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

VRA Market Update

Important things are happening inside of this market. First, a pretty remarkable comeback yesterday…excellent afternoon trading/smart money hour…featuring a DJ that rallied 250 points off of its lows and nasdaq an even more impressive 200 point rally off of its lows. It was the internals that caught our eye…again. Even when the markets had sharp losses, NYSE and Nasdaq A/D and up/down volume were either positive or just slightly negative. Again, what we see as a significant pattern change under the hood continues. 

Back Up The Truck

Folks, there’s really only thing to focus on this AM, broad market wise…the latest sentiment readings from the weekly AAII Survey.
I’ve voted in this survey for approx 30 years now and it’s very rare to see bullish readings below 20. This weeks came in at just 19.2% bulls and 43.2% bears.

SentimenTrader has the analytics for us on AAII. There have been just 31 weeks with less than 20% bulls. In 29/31 cases, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 3 months with avg gains of 5.55%. 
6 months later the avg gain was 12.24%.1 year later the avg gain was 19.65% and the markets were higher 94% of the time.

VRA Bottom Line: with AAII bulls at just 19% (along with the “many” bull market and contrarian themes we cover often here), it is an impossibility for us to be bearish here. This is…and I say this with confidence…a back up the truck moment, assuming you are investing for at minimum the next 6–12 months. The data bears this out. 

With 9/12 VRA Investing System screens now bullish, make sure you join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com to view the VRA Portfolio and ensure you are positioned correctly.

Gold and Miners Breaking Out

Gold hitting $1899 this AM, just $23/oz shy of a 52 week high. Our newer VRA Members will want to view our work of the last week (Gold and miners love rate hikes).

Here, we see GDX has been outperforming gold since October, and its picking up speed. Big buy signal for industry pros.

Here, we see gold is outperforming BTC, an event we began telling you would take place last November.

And gold is even outperforming oil. Long and strong gold and miners…multi-year bull market move higher from here.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: CPI at 40 Year High. Thanks Again Biden. Textbook Bottom and Bear Trap. Gold and Miners Love Rising Rate Cycles

Good Thursday morning all. The much awaited CPI data is out and its a hot number, with inflation hitting a 40 year high as the CPI posts a 7.5% annual gain in January. Honestly, don’t most of us look at this number and say “what do you mean it only rose 7.5% year over year…based on what I’m paying for stuff it feels much more like annual inflation of 20% +.”

Lets see, what’s changed over the last year? Thats right, we got a new president…the basement dweller with “81 million votes”. Not sure about you but I cannot find a single person that will admit to voting for Biden. 

The markets were flat in advance of the CPI data but immediately went south, with DJ now -225 and Nasdaq down a bigger 260 (-1.8%). 

In the bigger picture, this market has been on an absolute bull run, following what looks to this market watcher to have been a perfectly set “bear trap”, as I explained in our VRA Podcast yesterday. 

The 1/24 market bottom and the corresponding move higher has been “textbook”, so far. 

First, we had the 1/24 capitulation…classically completed on a sharply lower Monday open, just as the average Nasdaq stock had already collapsed by more than 50%.

Second, tech…led by the semis…have led the way higher. Nvidia (NVDA), which we highlighted in yesterdays VRA Update, has been a nonstop freight train higher…up a big 6.5% yesterday…and +22% from those 1/24 capitulation lows. 

Third, our VRA Investing System continues to pick up “significant pattern changes”, both in market internals and key leadership action, as the smart money hours are flipping back to bullish as well. Yesterdays internals were the best readings of 2022, with 80–85% up volume (NYSE, Nasdaq)…6:1 for Nasdaq…and another big day for advance declines. Back to back, fantastic days.

VRA Bottom Line: The markets have zoomed higher from the 1/24 lows. In just 2 weeks, a 2300 point move higher in the DJ (+7.5%) and a near 1400 point move higher in Nasdaq (+10.6%) and a BIG 16% move higher in the Semis (SMH)…and we remain buyers of dips, in our VRA Portfolio Positions. 

We’re still in the most seasonally bullish time of the year, equity inflows and share buybacks are piling in and the biggie; we’re still just entering year 3 of a new bull market, driven by (still) solid corporate earnings and record amounts of global liquidity. As we’ve said now for 18 months plus, this is a structural bull market, with the Trump Economic Miracle (still) serving as its springboard and corporate financial engineering emerging as a dark horse element for sharply higher prices. 

Plus one of mine and Tyler’s favorites; we told you several months ago that Biden was already a lame duck president…that’s now being recognized as fact…and the markets love DC gridlock as much as just about anything. They also love (early) rate hikes…but that looks like a stat that many market watchers have (oddly) yet to figure out. I think they’ll get there…”

Gold and the Miners LOVE Rate Hike Cycles 

Check out this 20 year chart of gold below, marked by points 1–6.

Point 1 is where I first recommended gold and silver, in my 2nd ever VRA Update in 2003. Gold was $375/oz….silver was $4.75/oz. 

What followed was the rising rate cycle of 2004–2006 (17 straight rate hikes) when gold that more than doubled in price. 

Point 5 was the next rate hike cycle (2016) as the Fed jacked rates higher 8 times in Trumps first 2 years. Again, gold doubled in price.

They REALLY love rising rate cycles. 

Finally, here’s golds 1 year chart, featuring a pennant formation (even the flagpole is in place). I believe a big breakout is nearing.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Structural Bull Market of Size and Scope. Q4 Earnings. Investor Sentiment Buy Signals. CV Insanity; Wake Up DC, Wake Up America!

Good Thursday morning all. After a solid open, following the worst inflation data in the US in almost 40 years, the markets traded listlessly throughout the rest of the day but importantly, the internals do continue to show improvement.It’s not the news that matters most, it’s the markets reaction to that news. Tomorrow kicks off Q4 earnings reports in style as big banks begin reporting (Citi, Wells, JPM, Blackrock). While US markets never reached heavily/extreme oversold levels on the VRA System, even as tech had a quick 10% correction, we may have just seen the lows for the near term. Semis and tech continue to lead, the internals are improving and we expect earnings reports to “significantly “ beat analyst estimates once again. Frankly, that should be the theme throughout the year, even as yes, the midterm election year in the 2nd year of a presidency tends to be weak.

We’ll continue to pick our spots with our ETF’s, while focusing on our top growth stocks that should (significantly) outperform the broad markets. We’re also in the best period of the year for small caps.

Investor Sentiment

Last nights AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which I’ve voted in for more than 30 years, came back with sharply bearish readings, with bulls falling a big 8% to 25% and bears rising to 38% (+5% on the week).

As contrarians, this is just what we want to see. 25% bulls, just a week or so away from ATH’s in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones can only be called “massively bullish”.

Bit of a mixed bag here, as the Fear & Greed Index never really got hit hard during the last downdraft, with a reading today of 64 (Greed). Frankly, this is in line with how sentiment should be acting.

As a reminder, we would not want to start taking significant profits until the Fear & Greed Index is hitting 85+.

Rona is ending (except in blue states..sorry friends), we’ve just had a 10% shake-out correction in tech, Biden is a lame duck and the midterms get closer with each passing day. 

And yes, this still feels (kinda sorta) like Bill Clintons presidency to me, home to the best 8 years for the stock market in US history. Biden can try all he wants to rule by fiat (Executive Orders), but unless our SCOTUS has completely sold out to America hating communists…I don’t believe thats even close to being the case…Biden will soon have no choice but to work with a deeply red and much more MAGA-ish house and senate. 

Tyler and I continue to see this as the best set-up for our markets since 1995–2000. And yes, we love the fact that we’re about the only people you’ll find saying it. 

This bull market is entirely structural in nature, driven by unprecedented liquidity, surging corporate earnings…which will soon blow away estimates again…and powered by the most important economic and leading indicator elements of housing and transpiration. As long as housing and the trannies are on fire…they very much are today….the US economy will continue to be on rock solid footing. 

Even with this mornings inflation reading of a hot 7% CPI (year over year), the structural components of both the economy and markets should continue to power stocks higher. Bull markets do not end until corporate earnings top, which we still see as a 2026-ish event. 

As to the bond market and higher rates, you know our thoughts. Rate hikes are bullish for stocks. And no, we will not have 4 rate hikes this year. Today, there are a record number of shorts in the treasury market, meaning that even when we get a hot CPI number, the path of least resistance is lower for yields (as the shorts cover). It’s one of the best times in my career to be a contrarian, when it comes to rates. Most all economists move in lockstep…they are monoliths…driven by what their employers at the Fed command. Lower rates, for longer, remains the smart money play.

CV Insanity Update

While we continue to see highly encouraging signs that CV insanity is ending in the US, we must keep a close eye on these authoritarian tyrants that wish to turn the planet into a dystopian communist monolith.

Have you see the new walls/barricades that late yesterday started being erected around the White House? What exactly is going on here?? All while our nations capital is full-on totalitarianism, requiring that before you leave your home you must have your vax papers and ID. Lets see if we have this right; it’s racist to require ID to vote, but completely fine to require ID’s to leave your home. WHAT? Where are our R elected officials, who should be screaming from mountaintops? Outrageous!!

And folks, it’s becoming equally dystopian here in Texas, as Houston Methodist Hospital has announced they are requiring all employees to have their booster from March 1 or be fired. As we’ve said for close to 2 years, we must stop complying…because they won’t stop pushing. Governor Abbott, please come out of hiding and answer the calls for a special session of congress to make tax mandates illegal. Your EO is doing exactly nothing. Texas needs new leadership. Feels like Beto o’Rourke is Governor today.

Here’s the bottom line. If we keep complying, they will keep taking. And taking. And taking. Are you awake yet?

First it was ‘prevent transmission’. 

Next it was ‘prevent symptoms’. 

Then it was ‘prevent hospitalization’. 

Then it was ‘prevent serious illness and death’. 

Now? If you end up vented in the ICU, in Australia (and Canada) it means the vaccines working. Global mass psychosis.

If you think this can’t/won’t come to America, you have not been paying attention.

#DoNotComply

#Nuremberg2

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Brutal Smart Money Hour. Investor Sentiment Flashing Buy Signals. Flatting Yield Curve and the Reality of Obama's 3rd Term.VRA 10 Bagger

Good Thursday morning all. From +518 to -461 at the close, the Dow Jones had a near 1000 point reversal lower yesterday. An even larger percentage decline occurred in Nasdaq, which had a near 600 point swing. 

Not what we wanted to see…not what I expected to see. Horrible smart money hour. Once again, Nasdaq new 52 week lows keep putting up big numbers as 571 stocks hit new lows. And this stat is attention getting; while the S&P 500 is down a tiny 4% from ATH, at the same time there are now 486 stocks in the S&P 500 down 25% or more, in the last 30-days. Brutal action underneath the surface, as mega caps continue to support the broad markets from exhibiting larger losses.

And we’re really seeing fear make its presence known (that’s bullish), as the AAII Sentiment Survey saw bulls collapse to 26.7% with bears jumping to 42.4% (highest reading since Sept 2020)

And wow. The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 22 (extreme fear). Just over 3 weeks ago it was 87 (extreme greed). Bearish sentiment like we’re seeing now is exactly how bottoms/reversals take place.

This morning, Dow futures are once again higher (+200) while Nasdaq is -40. The culprit? Breaking news from late yesterday that Apple is telling suppliers that iPhone demand is slowing.

As we’ve said for some time, and as Apple may now be witnessing, we are in Obama’s 3rd term. That’s likely what this decline is about. The US economy will only grow more slowly from here. And, if the Fed removes the punch bowl, we’ll be witness to a massive policy error as we head into midterms…Dems will get crushed even worse. Any Fed tapering will be short-lived.

We see the slowing US economy here, in the change in longer term treasury yields, since 10/1, as 10–20–30 year yields continue to decline. AKA, we are seeing a flattening of the yield curve.

Treasury Yield Change, Post 10/1, Bottom Line:

- Since October 1, the yield on 3-year notes has gone up 32 basis points.

- The yield on the 30-year long bond has fallen 26 basis points.

- This is a relative flattening of 58 basis points, or more than double what two 1/4 point rate hikes would achieve.

VRA Bottom Line; the markets (bond market vigilantes) are front running the Fed. If the yield curve continues to flatten, the word “recession” will be begin to be heard. While we do not expect a recession, we do expect growth will slow. Not go negative, but slow. This will become the next goldilocks set-up for higher stock prices, as the Fed pushes back their taper and rate hikes, and as 10 year yields keeps falling. 

Trump Media (DWAC): We will soon be adding to our position in DWAC, officially bringing down our cost basis. DWAC jumped some 20% after hours on the news that they are raising $1 billion. 
DWAC is a VRA 10 Bagger and must be owned, short, medium and long term. https://finance.yahoo.com/m/af64c690-aed3-3a13-bf56-04fc7058067a/digital-world-acquisition.html

Peter Navarro from yesterday, becoming even more direct about Fauci the Fraud. Until they start “publicly” talking about the 100’s of business deals with big pharma that Fauci has closed over the last 40+ years, as head of US healthcare (NIH), likely netting him more than $100 million (The Real Anthony Fauci, by RFK, Jr), the public may never wake up.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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