VRA Alert: Make Sure You are Positioned - Major Cycle Reversal

Corporate earnings are coming in, and the early read for me is “surprisingly solid”. And remember folks, this is the quarter where a combination of bad weather and a strong US Dollar (USD) were supposed to hit companies and hit them hard.

There is one area where hits from a strong USD have been felt. Take a look at the following commodities since their 2011 highs…

Commodity	Current Price	Recent High	Change
Iron Ore	$59.00	$195.00	-70%
Silver	$15.53	$48.55	-68%
WTI Crude	$44.88	$113.39	-60%
Corn	$358.50	$839.50	-57%
Natural Gas	$2.69	$6.21	-57%
Brent Crude	$55.24	$126.26	-56%
Hogs	$65.21	$133.06	-51%
Soy Beans	$962.00	$1,790.00	-46%
Uranium	$39.25	$73.00	-46%
Wheat	$504.50	$912.50	-45%
Copper	$5,882.00	$10,064.00	-42%
Platinum	$1,121.00	$1,884.00	-40%
Gold	$1,153.57	$1,874.72	-38%
Southern Pine Trees	$395.00	$499.00	-21%
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream What a “Falling” Dollar Could Mean for Commodities Since July 2014, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen more than 25%. That's an incredible move for any currency. The rapidly rising dollar sent commodity prices falling just as fast... The chart below shows the inverse relationship between the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (that tracks 19 commodities) and the dollar. Since many commodities are denominated in dollars, the price of those commodities has fallen as the dollar has gained strength. As I’ve written extensively, I am looking for a major move higher in precious metals…and we are well positioned here with our current positions. Remember, gold shorts are at an all time high.....Euro Shorts/Dollar Longs are at an all time high. NOW is the time to be positioned as a perfect storm short squeeze develops.The chart above is going to reverse completely. And...for all of you that have bought into the argument that precious metals prices will fall in the face of rising interest rates, think back to the late 1970's, and more recently, the 2002-2005 time frame. Gold and silver skyrocketed as interest rates increased...this time would be no different. While it’s too early that say that the move higher in the USD is over, its not too early to take action on companies that will benefit greatly from a weaker dollar. Make sure you are positioned accordingly... VRA Subscribers just booked another 112% profit today. Incredibly, close to 70% of the public wants nothing to do with the stock market. Of course, after the Dow Jones has jumped another 30%, they will all be jumping in...and that's when we will be selling. Kip Herriage - VRAletter.com @kherriage (Follow me on Twitter)

VRA UPDATE: PERFECT STORM BREWING FOR 1200% GAINS

VRA UPDATE: PERFECT STORM BREWING – TIME FOR 1200% PLUS GAINS - AGAIN

Each week I run every indicator and chart that the VRA Trading & Investing System is comprised of, and as I have been predicting, a perfect storm looks to be brewing. I believe those that take action will see their portfolios skyrocket over the next 6-12 months, specifically in the individual sectors and stocks that the VRA recommends.

Roughly 4 years ago I turned bullish on the stock market, and while we have seen the market move sharply higher, we have yet to see what is commonly referred to as the “blow-off phase” of this bull market. As I’ve been predicting, I believe that phase is now underway, and barring some unforeseen black swan event, a short term move higher of roughly 30% in the Dow and S&P could be right in front of us, with far greater gains available to those invested in the best sectors and stocks.

Major bull markets in equities…and yes, this one certainly qualifies…go through specific phases. A bull market begins in a sell-off crash low, which we saw in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis panic lows (March 2009, which the VRA nailed within 30 minutes), followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows over a period of several years. The final phase of major bull markets is the most explosive. Typically, bull markets like this do not end until we see real froth in the markets. Think back to 1999-2000, and the dot com melt-up in stocks, and you’ll know exactly what I am talking about. 

Based on everything that I see technically, this final move higher is now underway. These are the 10 most important indicators that the VRA Trading & Investing System follows, and importantly, the fundamentals are confirming the technicals.

Bullish Fundamentals

I write about the fundamental reasons to be bullish fairly frequently, and we covered them on our most recent VRA Global Investment Call, but let’s take a look at them all in one place.

Briefly, here are the most important fundamental reasons that tell me a major move in the markets is on the way:

One: Climbing a Wall of Worry – bull markets tend to ramp higher when the investing public is negative and under-invested. We see this exact environment now with just 35% of the public invested in stocks (versus more than 70% in 2000). Contrarians are always the biggest winners.

Two: Election Year Cycle – the 3^rd year of an election year is far and away the best year to be invested in stocks.

Three: Stock Buybacks and M&A Activity – mgt teams are buying back shares of their own companies at a near record pace. In addition, favorable tax laws are taking mergers and acquisitions to all time highs. Corporate inversions, which allow co’s to base their headquarters in more tax friendly countries and pay 20-30% less in total taxes, are a major reason for this, and with the risk of this loophole closing we can look for M&A activity to grow larger still.

Four: Central Banks, QE and more than 20 countries slashing interest rates in an ongoing currency war tell us that stocks are the only place to be for your investment dollars. In addition, outright equity purchases by central banks, which has moved from conspiracy theory to conspiracy fact, tell us that we have a serious floor underneath stock prices. Any decline will be met with buying.

With interest rates at record low levels globally, where else are investors supposed to put their money??

Five: M2 Money Supply – with money supply growing by 7.3% in the US, and rising, serious cash is being forced into the economy by the FED.  Again, “Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the FED” continues to be the theme of this bull market.

The 5 fundamental points above tell us that we WILL see a blow-off phase in stocks…and now is the time to be positioned for the move higher.

VRA PORTFOLIO NOTES: 

One: Precious Metals – it’s looking more and more like the VRA caught the November 2014 lows in precious metals and mining stocks. Not only have we seen a double bottom in gold, but mining stocks are giving us a very important chart pattern of higher highs and higher lows…exactly what technical analysts expect when a major move higher is beginning. Over the last two weeks, the Dow has increased by 1.3%, however the GDX (mining stock index) is up a very impressive 12.5%. 

Folks…talk about a perfect storm for precious metals. With 3.5 years of lower gold and silver prices, a huge number of mining co’s can no longer afford to explore. A combination of rising mining costs (thank you core inflation) plus falling gold/silver prices, have given us the perfect scenario for the next great bull market in PM’s and the miners. WE WILL MAKE FORTUNES IN PM’s AND VRA RECOMMENDED MINING STOCKS GOING FORWARD.

Two: Bull Market Positions. With my call for a big move higher in the overall stock market, make sure you own our top ranked selections. Our gains of 1200% from the past 14 months will be repeated...and more.

Important Point: Going forward, the VRA will be more aggressive in taking profits in these positions. Stay tuned for more info, but here’s the game plan. As the market gets overbought, we will look to take profits more frequently…then buy our positions back once they pull back in price. This gives us the opportunity for 200-300% gains in selected positions each year, rather than 50-100% gains.

The most explosive stage of this bull market is in front of us. Make sure you are positioned for another year of 1200% plus gains.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…make it a great week.

Kip

@kherriage (follow me on Twitter)

If you would like to subscibe to the VRA and save more than 70% off of the annual price, email me at: verticalresearch@mindspring.com

The Cartels - Real Life Matrix

Starting at 6 am each morning I look over my investing notes and the latest indicators from the VRA Trading and Investing System. This morning, my notes reminded me that 2015 is a “pre-election year” and that historically, this year is the strongest of all or the stock market. It’s just one of about ten primary reasons that I have been so bullish on stocks.

This also reminded me that yes…next year we have a Presidential election. While I’m a conservative at heart, I am also 100% independent. And yes…Republicans are every bit as messed up as Democrats.

THE CARTELS – Same Song Second Verse 

Sure, Republicans will "act" different from Dems…and they will parrot the conservative party line to a naïve public…but at the end of the day we have a government controlled by the most powerful of special interests, and whether Republican or Democrat, it is the Global Cartels of the world that rule (just about) everything.

Be it the Financial Cartel (the most sinister and powerful), the Military Cartel (always the most aggressive and deadly), the Energy Cartel (the source of massive, multi-decade, U.S. destroying wealth transfers), the Media Cartel (controlling/brainwashing the public) or the Drug Cartel (both legal and illegal), these cartels work hand-in-hand, functioning as a shadow government, to manipulate and control the masses. 

With this knowledge, we can view the events of the day entirely differently from the mainstream lemmings…helping us to make informed and correct decisions, based in the truth and outside of this real-life matrix. Understanding this is an important key to making great decisions.

No…it's not always easy being a member of the "informed minority", and in fact, can be more than just a little uncomfortable when putting your plans into place. However, once you begin to examine life by asking questions like; "Qui Bono?" (who benefits) and you begin to "Follow the Money" when looking for the truth, your search will become much simpler. I know mine has…. 

Make it a great day…

Kip Herriage

@kherriage (Twitter)

VRAletter.com

Given Up On the Stock Market? Most Have - And That's a BIG Retirement Mistake

While close to 70% of the public has sworn off investing in stocks, contrarians are riding stocks to record highs. My job is to show you how to beat Wall Street at its own game...and it's really not hard when you know the game better than they do.  

The question you need to ask yourself is; "will I be able to retire if I choose NOT to invest in stocks?"

From February 12, 2014 to today (2/18/15), the VRA has produced total gains of +1234% (net of losses).  This means that an investment of $10,000 would be worth roughly $123,400…in one years time…had you followed the VRA’s Buy and Sell Recommendations.

And yes, this makes the VRA the #1 Investment Newsletter in the country.

As good as this number may be…it’s also the past. And I know what you know…all that matters from this point on are the profits that we make in the future.

*AS A SERIOUS INVESTOR, READ, REMEMBER, AND SAVE THIS UPDATE – IT WILL SERVE AS YOUR ROADMAP TO FUTURE PROFITS WITH THE VRA

How Did We Achieve These Returns…and More Importantly, How Do We Repeat Them in 2015 and Beyond

Capitalizing on the VRA - A Breakdown of the Statistics: 

Since 2/12/14 there have been 22 trades in total, with 16 winners and 6 losers; for a success rate of 72% (this success rate “should” have been 82%...keep reading for the reason why) 

The 16 profitable trades produced a total return of 1526%, for an average profit of 95.37% per position.

Here’s the explanation of why the VRA success rate should have been 82% (instead of 72%), along with another 400% + in gains.

There were two truly frustrating trades during this time frame. Trades that turned major profits into losses – a situation that will never be allowed to take place again at the VRA.

For example, not once, but TWICE, we had gains of more than 100% in NUGT calls…only to have them expire when the miners fell like a knife through hot butter in the second half of 2014.

Frustrating trade #2. We had a gain of more than 280% in Yahoo Calls…then the stock market fell close to 10% in a month, taking tech stocks down hard with it. Our Yahoo calls expired as well.

I “re-learned” a most valuable lesson from these two nightmare trades…I only wish for all of our sake that I had adopted the following policy to begin with; when we achieve a 100% profit in a trade, we sell half of the position and lock in the gain. Then, we are investing with house money…and regardless of what happens, we cannot lose…as we have removed our initial investment.  The VRA will NEVER make this mistake again…as evidenced by our recent trades in RUSL (3 x Russia ETF) and RUSL Calls, where we booked 420% in total gains in under a month.

*URGENT VRA STRATEGY POINTS*

POINT ONE: VRA Subscribers should take special note of the benefits of investing in stock options. Some of our biggest gains came from options trades, and going forward, this will likely continue to be the case. This is the personality of the stock market today, and smart money investors are taking this exact action.

If you have never invested using options…or if you have either failed at it, or simply don’t fully understand it, let me break it down for you as simply as I can. In today’s volatile and ever changing investment environment, options investing is a near requirement for achieving huge, market beating returns.

In addition, the VRA Trading and Investing System thrives in the exact investment environment that we are in now, making options a most powerful friend of ours. 

POINT TWO: I have written extensively about the VRA Trading and Investing System, and I encourage you to go back through the VRA Archived Updates (in your Members Section) to get a better idea of exactly what it is and how it works. Bottom line; over my 30 years as an investor and financial analyst I have fine-tuned everything that I have learned…both from fundamental and technical analysis…and combined this with the benefit of having actually done this for 30 years. There’s no replacement for the knowledge that comes from experience…three decades of it…especially when that experience comes from every side of the industry/profession (15 years ON Wall Street combined with 15 years OFF Wall Street). 

Make no mistake about it…the VRA Trading and Investing System is an extension of everything I’ve learned over my 30 years. I don’t issue a Buy Rec or a Sell Rec without using it, and maybe most importantly…as they say…the proofs in the pudding.

If you’ve been with the VRA for a while, you know the only thing that really matters…the VRA T&I System works. 

Now…let’s get back to investing using options. 

*THE SIMPLE KEYS TO OPTIONS INVESTING – VRA STYLE

First, know that when it comes to options, I keep things very, very simple.

I only use options in two ways. I either recommend “call options” or I recommend “put options”. That’s it…nothing elaborate or complicated. 

Options investing gives investors a great deal of leverage. For a much smaller amount of money than would normally be the case, we can invest in options and have the potential for much larger gains than from using stocks alone (assuming we invested the same amount of money in stocks). 

And, like stocks, you can only lose what you invest…and nothing more (don’t confuse “options” with “futures”…in futures, you can lose much more than you invest).

Investing using options (buying calls or puts) is really no different than investing in stocks. The mechanics are the same…buy low and sell high. 

Here’s EXACTLY how the VRA invests with options (calls and puts); 

Call Options: If I believe that a particular stock or ETF (exchange traded fund) is going to go UP in price, I may recommend that you buy Calls on that particular investment.  That’s it…I told you it was simple.

Again, just like stocks, we want to “buy low and sell high”, so our goal is to buy Calls low…and then sell them at a higher price…when its time to take profits.

That’s it…if you make it any more complicated than this, then you aren’t following the VRA method of options investing. 

Put Options: Puts are just the opposite of Calls. If I believe that a particular investment will go DOWN in price, I may recommend the purchase of Put Options. Again, our goal is to buy the Puts when they are cheap, and then sell them when we are ready to take profits.

And remember, with every VRA options recommendation, I will tell you exactly when to buy and exactly when to sell…along with the strategy behind the idea. 

Finally, opening an Options Account is a simple process. Simply login to your Brokerage Account…or pick up the phone and call them…and start the process. It’s painless and shouldn’t take more than a few minutes.

When opening your options account, remember this most important point. All you want to do is; Buy Calls and Buy Puts…and of course sell them when we are ready to take profits. There will be several different “options approvals” that your brokerage firm will offer you, and you only need to select the FIRST option they make available to you; this is a BASIC options account…and you will never need anything beyond this.

This last year provided VRA Subscribers with the opportunity for outstanding profits. This VRA Update…as much as any update I have issued…will help to ensure that you are perfectly positioned to repeat these gains going forward.

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip

Vraletter.com

@kherriage

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Massive European Bailout On The Way & Dow 24,000??

Will Greece and Lehman Brothers Share the Same Fate??

As I tweeted (@kherriage) last week, letting Greece leave the eurozone would be like the FED allowing Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt in September, 2008...oh wait...that actually happened (and we know the economic carnage that followed).

While recognizing that anything is possible, I've been on record for the last couple of years as saying that there is little to no chance that Greece will leave the eurozone...or what is being widely referred to as a "Grexit" (Greek exit).

I can list lots of incredibly important reasons why this could become a black swan event…like: Portugal would be the next country to leave (followed by Italy and Spain)...or the nightmare reality of a $350 billion Greek sovereign debt default (80% owned by other European banks), and yes, the memory of the global panic that followed Lehman's bankruptcy.

But there is one primary reason why Greece will remain one of 19 European members that commonly use one currency…the Euro.

That reason? If Greece were to leave the eurozone, it would equate to failure of the MUCH bigger picture...our global puppet masters primary goal of “one world government” and in conjunction of course, a single global currency. This is the long game...we're talking 10-20-30 years out...and the loss of Greece to the EZ would change that narrative a great deal. And yes, I know that this puts me in the minority. In fact, many of my best sources firmly believe that the Euro will fail, as both a currency and as a concept.

Here's a parallel that will explain my position further. It was June 2012, and Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts...a Republican appointee no less (Bush 1)...was to cast the deciding vote on the legal legitimacy of Obamacare. Conservatives were beyond convinced that Roberts would vote in their favor, and that Obamacare would come to an end. Of course, we know the end result...

Here's what I said about Roberts vote at the time:

“As we listened to the media pundits and their educated guess that Obamacare would lose at the Supreme Court level today...because that is what the majority had predicted would happen...that little voice inside my head continued to scream "big government always wins in the end...the fix is in...Obamacare is here to stay...and it won't stop here."

Those "conspiracy theorists" that believe that the New World Order is taking over...and that this is part of their grand master plan...look pretty damn smart today. Trust me, the conspiracy theorists are not surprised...and you can count me among this group as well. Folks, we aren't becoming Europe...we ARE Europe!” 

I believe, even more strongly today, that the long term one-worlders have zero interest in deviating from their master plan...meaning they cannot afford to let Greece leave the EZ. A Grexit would easily set them back by a decade or longer (especially if Greece were to succeed economically after leaving)…just not an option in their eyes.

In addition, remember my update of February 2^nd. As first reported here at the VRA, an epic battle is now underway…one that Pres. Obama has since confirmed…and the full weight of his Administration and central banks globally is being brought to bear on the world’s top leaders. They now understand fully that they MUST embark on aggressive easy money policies, or there will be a very large price to pay.

Going forward, I fully expect to see that Greece (followed by other EZ countries) will receive both debt flexibility and debt forgiveness…whatever it takes in order to win the central banks financial war against “their version of deflation"…something that we know the truth about…banks require significant "monetary velocity" in order to continue with their ponzi scheme.

This is exactly how currency inflation eventually takes over…leading to what can only result in rampant hyperinflation. 

And remember this most important point; Greece needs just $60 billion or so in the short term…a drop in the bucket for a combined EZ GDP of nearly $13 trillion.

The VRA Core Portfolio has been recommending Greek investments and if we are given the opportunity we will be adding additional positions (both stocks and options). 

BTW, this new Greek Prime Minister has some big brass ones. Alexis Tsipras has been “telling” Germany that they will need to compensate Greece for Nazi war reparations…have fun with that one Germany. 

DOW 24,000?? IT MAY HAPPEN FASTER THAN YOU THINK 

As I’ve been saying, the size of the move higher…before this bull market is over…could be FAR greater than 99% of the investing public has any clue 

I make this prediction with a fair amount of trepidation…a major black swan event could easily knock the market 10-20% (or more) lower in the blink of an eye. But frankly, that’s one of the reasons for my optimism with stocks…the vast majority of people are nervous and out of the market.

Here are the reasons I have been bullish…while 70% of the investing public has been bearish:

One: Bull markets don’t end until the public is fully invested. Then, once the majority believes that stocks cannot fall…that’s when the rug is pulled from beneath their feet. And right now, stock ownership by the public is much closer to the all time lows than vice versa…

Two: With global QE still very much in play, along with ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), and NIRP (negative interest rate policy), central banks around the world are essentially forcing investors to buy stocks…there’s nowhere else to put your money, in the hopes of making a decent return and the ability to EVER retire.

Three: As extensive VRA research/commentary has made clear, once the FED starts to raise interest rates, history tells us that instead of falling, stocks actually RISE in price (until the 3^rd rate increase…on average). And of course, we aren’t there yet…no rate increases.

Four: DON’T FIGHT THE TAPE AND DON’T FIGHT THE FED…the most important paradigm of investing. 

I see very few…if any…supposed Wall Street guru’s discussing the four points above. Again…the minority/contrarian view is almost always the correct view.

Finally, in every major bull market that I have seen or studied, the top is marked by what is referred to as the “blow-off stage”. This is the final leg higher, and is met with investor euphoria and ramping stock prices. Think back to 2000 and you’ll know what I am talking about. We are nowhere close to this environment…

Let me repeat…the world is full of black swan possibilities. But unless we see one rear its ugly head, the path of least resistance…just based on the four facts I’ve explained here, is higher…and potentially, quite a bit higher.

For the Dow to hit 24,000, it would mean a move higher of 33% from today’s levels (18,000 currently). You’ll see pretty much no one else discussing this possibility…another reason that it’s likely to happen.

Finally (for now), oil prices continue to stabilize and move higher. The volatility will continue to be crazy, but the trend higher should also be maintained. If we get another significant pullback we will look to add to our new position in energy…via stocks, options and ETF’s. 

As of now, my target for oil is $100+ in less than 14 months. We will make a fortune here 

Until next time, thanks again for reading.

Kip

Vraletter.com (est. 2003)

@kherriage

kip@vraletter.com