VRA Investment Update: Improvement Under the Hood. 4 VRA Horsemen. Tax Day, Mask Day.

Good Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement. Pretty remarkable that Nasdaq advance/decline was positive while nasdaq also put up its first +100 new 52 week highs since January. Hey, its a start. And again, with NFLX getting smashed 36% (-$125/sh), yesterday could have been especially ugly. 

In addition, our 4 VRA Horsemen (Housing, Trannies, Semis and Banks) once again put up gains on the day. Folks, as long as these groups hold their 2/24 to 3/14 lows, we’re looking at a pattern of higher lows to keep building on. The big negative remains the fact that each broad market index remains below its 200 dma, although the S&P 500 is right on the line. Remember, we need to see 7 straight days above the 200 dma before we can have confidence that the 200 day has a solid chance of holding. 

Markets are higher this morning. DJ +250 and Nasdaq +150.

Last nights AAII Sentiment Survey came in with bulls up 3 to 18.9% and bears -5 to 43.9%. History tells us that when AAII bulls drop below 20% its a remarkably great time to buy stocks, assuming your window is at least 6 months out. Going back to the origins of this survey (1986), when bulls drop below 20% you would have made money in the S&P 500 100% of the time over the following 6–12 months. It’s only happened 9 times, prior to now, with an average gain over the next 6 months of 13% and an average gain over the next year of more than 20%. High probability repeating pattern.

As the broad markets have rallied, precious metals and miners have been soft. The pattern of hitting 90% OB on stochastics and pausing…we’ve seen this pattern repeat everywhere over the last year +…has briefly struck metals/miners as well. Importantly, these pauses are short-lived. Below, in the chart of GDX (miner ETF) we see it clearly; from the birth of the current breakout (early February) GDX has seen support right at 100% of the time at the 21 ema (purple line), with dips through the 21 ema lasting no more than a day. This morning GDX is trading down 1%, roughy .50/share above the 21 ema.

Use this pause as a buying opportunity in the miners. Our positions in VRA 10 Baggers have held up like the beasts they’ve been all year (learn more at VRAInsider.com). 

Tax Day, Mask Day

So this week, they matched up tax day in the US with “masks-be-gone” day…we’ll take it I guess, but that’s still a 99:1 losing proposition. Taxes are theft and cloth masks were always a joke. 

Next up…and this should be happening now….all jab mandates MUST be removed. Then, we must re-hire everyone that was fired for not bending the knee for legitimate medical or religious exemptions…for any reason whatsoever…we simply did not want to be forcibly injected with experimental poisons over a flu that 99.9% recover from. After everyone is re-hired, pay them for their damages and lost wages. Then, every employee that was forced to take these jabs should be compensated “handsomely”. 

Where might all this money come from? Big pharma can kick off the contributions. And, if we can send 100’s of billions of dollars each year to foreign countries, we can certainly afford to take care of our own. 

I am so ready to be done with CV insanity. We all are. But, our work is just beginning. Nuremberg-like trials must take place. Those guilty of these criminal levels of medical malpractice must pay the price. Doctors that backed, endorsed and prescribed these jabs must pay with their licenses. First, do no harm.

Frauds like Fauci, Gates, Imperial College, Birx, Wallensky…obviously the criminals in HHS, CDC, NIH and big pharma must face public nazi-like trials so this evil never ever happens again. 

For me, this is what the midterms are all about. Every R that’s running should have Nuremberg 2 at the top of their platform. That and impeaching Biden and investigating/prosecuting everyone that helped rig the 2020 election. Facebook/Zuckerberg and Twitter near the top of that list (another reason we’re so interested in Musk gaining access to the State secrets inside of Twitter).

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

Good Thursday morning all. We just put out a VRA Alert to our member’s that we wanted to share here.

Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

To understand why gold/silver may double over the next 3–5 yrs, with the miners jumping 300% to 500% in price, you must first understand the Feds history of major policy mistakes. Top of that list are their 17 straight rate hikes from ‘04-‘06, leading directly to the crash in housing, then the markets and economy and golds move from $375/oz to $1923/oz by 2011. Points 1,3 & 4 in the chart below represent Fed rate hike cycles (04 & 16) and the QE that followed (09 & 20) and of course the massive move higher in gold, silver and miners. 

The next rate hike cycle is underway now….followed almost certainly by the next series of Fed policy mistakes. It’s a repeating pattern that has become high probability.

And this chart tells the tale. GDX to S&P 500 relative strength chart (back to 2011) gives you an idea of just how cheap the miners are to the broad markets, on a relative strength basis. Abysmally weak. Folks, the miners would have to rally for “years” just to fill this gap. We made the same case for energy stocks last year…and they’re seeing their sharp moves higher…but today, its the miners that are trading at historically low levels. And importantly, all of this is taking place while at the same time investors barely own the miners, with less than 3% of global portfolios having a position. This is the PERFECT contrarian buy signal, for a group that is ready to soar (and I haven’t even mentioned the global debt and fiat currency pictures). Now, imagine what this group might do should gold hit our target of $3500 and silver $60. Generational wealth creation.

We see it in this important chart as well; the 1 year chart of the relative strength of miners to gold. Beginning last October the miners began to outperform gold, but that outperformance really began to kick in in late January with miners going near parabolic compared to the underlying commodity. This is a classic tell. Investors want to be aggressively long this group when the miners are leading.

We like everything about precious metals and miners, both fundamentally and technically;

- The world has more debt and fiat currency in circulation than ever, with a system run (completely) by the financial engineering of global central banks (led by J Powell and US Fed). What could go wrong…

- Inflation is at 40 year highs and based on multiple important indicators/inputs (oil, food prices, wages, etc) the Fed is fighting a battle that it has most typically won by putting the economy into a recession, hence all of the inverted yield curves that started popping up over the last 2 weeks. Again, inflation is always “currency inflation”…aka money printing…and protection against inflation has been one of the primary reasons to own PM’s and miners, from the birth of fiat currency. It is already beginning to appear that the Fed is planning, on the back end, for more QE. 

- Fundamentally, this is an eerily similar set-up to 2004–2006, when the Fed was hiking rates 17 straight times, which sent PM’s and Miners (and stocks, btw) into major bull markets, followed by the housing/financial crash and launch of QE in 2009, which sent this group parabolic. To be clear, this set-up is bullish both for PM’s/miners and stocks. 

- PM’s and miners love rate hike cycles (as we’ve been covering quite a bit of late). The biggest moves in this group (since 2003) have come in this exact environment and this exact timing. 

- Multiple Golden Cross buy signals over the last day to month in gold, silver and GDX (both 50/200 and 100/200). High probability buy signals. 

- The miners (GDX) have been outperforming gold since October, with near parabolic outperformance over the last month. When the miners are beating gold on a relative strength basis, it’s a classic “tell” that this group should be owned aggressively. And the leverage is always in the miners. 

And this chart of GDX is the final tell:

GDX is above every moving average, with what I call a “catapult” chart setup. Following the “first shots fired” top and recovery move higher, should GDX break $40.26 (52 week high) we can expect the next parabolic move higher, first targeting $44/45 and then $50. GDX had a 50/200 dma golden cross on 3/11 and a 100/200dma golden cross yesterday. Volume is returning but should now begin to ramp. GDX is a buy on each of our VRA Momentum Oscillators with lots of room to run before hitting overbought, with near perfect trend line support in RSI and MFI. We should also get a fresh MACD buy signal within 2 days.

We are targeting massive gains from this group in both our trading positions and our VRA 10 Baggers. To learn more join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: The Global Fascism of Psychopathic Megalomaniacs. Back Up The Truck. Gold and Miners Breaking Out.

Even as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…these folks no longer have an excuse. Fascism is here, not just in Canada, but in the US as well.

Even in Texas and Florida, workers by the millions have been forced to take experimental jabs…over an illness with a 99.8% recovery rate…or face losing their jobs. Many have said “no…I’m not bending the knee”…and were then terminated. And its happening in numbers 10 x this in other states. I hear from people like this day after day after day…including from VRAMembers…heartbreaking emails, texts and calls. To add insult to injury, families and friends are being split up, divided, at one anothers throats…all over the relative nothingness that is rona. I laugh these days when someone “ats me” with “but Kip, millions have died…”. 

Uh-huh….I believe that like I believe Biden got 81 million votes. Died “with/from rona” might be the worst kept secret about CV insanity. As the CDC has admitted, roughly 6% of these deaths came solely from CV. Brutal lies…that can only originate from psychopathic megalomaniacs. 

And our kids…for me, this is the toughest part of the plandemic to cover, research and talk about. A generation of kids lives completely upended. For many, destroyed. Their entire lives, they will never forget the controls, the jabs, the evilness of masking. It’s engrained in their DNA. The hoax of climate change, which placed the very real fear into an entire generation that they might not live to be 20, 30 or 40, as all of earths inhabitants could go the way of the dinosaur, was evil enough. But now, our babies have to endure the satan-like depravity of CV insanity.

Of course, none of this is just a mistake or a horrible set of decisions from our WEF leaders. It’s all purposeful. Evil incarnate. 

If these events don’t fit the definition of “fascism on earth”, what would? 

I covered all of this, plus the markets of course, in our VRA Podcast on Wednesday. For those that may be new to this conversation, I start at the beginning…at least the beginning of the last 20 years, the worst 20 year stretch in American history…with the events of 9/11. Because everything happening today is connected to 9/11. I’ll repeat what I’ve said for more than 15 years, in these pages and on stages around the world; the US will likely never heal until the truth of 9/11 is known. Frankly, the world won’t heal. When psychopathic megalomaniacs are allowed to get away with something this evil, why would they stop there? They would not…and they have not. 

Here’s 30 minutes of me connecting the dots…this is my life’s work…and my hope is that CV insanity has begun to wake enough good people up in time to stop what’s coming. It may already be too late. And hey, I cover the markets too…there’s something for everyone, even if you’re not into conspiracy facts.

VRA Podcast Link: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-kip-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-feb-15-2022?si=7d98d69c669d45728036fec548815aeb&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

VRA Market Update

Important things are happening inside of this market. First, a pretty remarkable comeback yesterday…excellent afternoon trading/smart money hour…featuring a DJ that rallied 250 points off of its lows and nasdaq an even more impressive 200 point rally off of its lows. It was the internals that caught our eye…again. Even when the markets had sharp losses, NYSE and Nasdaq A/D and up/down volume were either positive or just slightly negative. Again, what we see as a significant pattern change under the hood continues. 

Back Up The Truck

Folks, there’s really only thing to focus on this AM, broad market wise…the latest sentiment readings from the weekly AAII Survey.
I’ve voted in this survey for approx 30 years now and it’s very rare to see bullish readings below 20. This weeks came in at just 19.2% bulls and 43.2% bears.

SentimenTrader has the analytics for us on AAII. There have been just 31 weeks with less than 20% bulls. In 29/31 cases, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 3 months with avg gains of 5.55%. 
6 months later the avg gain was 12.24%.1 year later the avg gain was 19.65% and the markets were higher 94% of the time.

VRA Bottom Line: with AAII bulls at just 19% (along with the “many” bull market and contrarian themes we cover often here), it is an impossibility for us to be bearish here. This is…and I say this with confidence…a back up the truck moment, assuming you are investing for at minimum the next 6–12 months. The data bears this out. 

With 9/12 VRA Investing System screens now bullish, make sure you join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com to view the VRA Portfolio and ensure you are positioned correctly.

Gold and Miners Breaking Out

Gold hitting $1899 this AM, just $23/oz shy of a 52 week high. Our newer VRA Members will want to view our work of the last week (Gold and miners love rate hikes).

Here, we see GDX has been outperforming gold since October, and its picking up speed. Big buy signal for industry pros.

Here, we see gold is outperforming BTC, an event we began telling you would take place last November.

And gold is even outperforming oil. Long and strong gold and miners…multi-year bull market move higher from here.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: ATH's Beget New ATH's. Semis Are KEY. VRA Investing System Flashing BUY

Good Friday morning all. 

Yesterday's trading brought fresh ATH in the S&P 500 with the Dow and Russell 2000 less than 1% from ATH and Nasdaq starting this AM at 1.3% from ATH. And while yesterday's internals were nothing to write home about (meme wars), we continue to like what we see as the semis and Nasdaq/tech/growth/momentum stocks are leading the way higher. SMH (Semi ETF) +1.31%, Nasdaq +.78%. Textbook, really. 

As Tyler’s been known to say on our podcasts, “new ATH’s beget new ATH’s”…and he’s exactly right, as analytics prove that there is rarely a better time to invest than when markets are hitting ATH (no resistance!)> 

As we’ve covered in these pages, rather religiously, the 5/12 capitulation lows in semis/tech/growth have served as the springboard for this short covering move to new ATH’s. Since 5/12 (twenty trading days), SMH is up 13.4%. Semis lead Nasdaq, Nasdaq leads the broad market. 

What Happens Next in Semis is KEY

In the chart of SMH below we see a trend line that has served as hard resistance from those mid-Feb highs. Since then, on each rally attempt, SMH has lost the battle to the line, resulting in a series of lower highs.
This pattern must change, IMO, for Nasdaq/growth to continue moving higher and to hit new ATH’s as well. Here at the VRA we’re roughly 70% fundamental and 30% technical but this is one of those times that I’d say “price action truly matters most”. A move through $252 (preferably on strong volume) should help get the breakout in SMH cooking with gas. This morning SMH is trading at $251.30 (+.30%).

A breakout in semis would be a key technical event for bearish investors. A “throw in the towel” kind of moment. A melt-up like event in tech/growth/momentum could then kick in (I continue to expect that will be the case).

On the heels of ATH’s in SPX, our markets are looking higher this AM. Dow futures + 80, higher but quiet elsewhere. 

And here’s an interesting market tidbit. The last 5 Fridays have been green for the Dow and 10 of the last 11 have been green as well. 
Impressive! Investors bidding up markets headed into 2 days where they cannot unload their positions is among the most bullish of votes with their money an investor can make.

Our VRA Investing System remains at 10/12 screens bullish. Anything above 6/12 bullish screens means that we remain buyers on pullbacks. But 10/12 bullish screens means that we want to be “aggressive buyers on pullbacks” as we expect the markets to push sharply higher.

The VRA System has 12 Propriety Screens. Today, 10 screens remain in bullish mode. 1 Screen is in bearish mode (valuations) and 1 screen is neutral (market internals).

70% of the screens are fundamental and 30% of the screens are technical. Here’s the breakdown of our 12 screens:

VRA Quick Hitters:

1) GDX (Miner ETF): immediately following its golden cross (50/200 dma), GDX had a solid day yesterday with gains of 2.5%. We expect a sharp move higher in miners.

2) AMC (AMC). Combined (VRA and Parabolic) we’ve booked better than 300% profits in AMC in ’21 (+148%profits in VRA). But we’re not ready to buy AMC again. We’re looking for the “ideal” buy here…no need to rush. A shake-out in AMC (if we get one) should take AMC back to the mid $30’s (last $44.50) to give us a double bottom. 

Heres’ what happened yesterday in meme war stocks. Steep losses across the board. Of this group, at this point, I only have an interest in one stock; AMC. But also know this; gamma squeeze as an investment strategy is very real and its here to stay. It worked with Tesla, it worked with Gamestop and its working with AMC. Here at the VRA we intend to use this strategy to print profits in the months and years to come. Remember, this is “that” bull market.

3) Finally for this morning, its no secret that we remain hyper-bullish. Here’s some color on that via my Twitter account.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: Market Update. Nasdaq Internals Weakening. More Evidence that PM, Miner Breakout is Real.

Good Thursday morning all. New closing highs in Nasdaq with a golden cross in S&P 500 looking pretty certain today, even as most everyone that I know, speak with and follow feels like the bottom could drop out at any moment. With CV mass hysteria raging (again), many/most schools leaning towards not reopening, countless 1000's of businesses going under and 20 million Americans unemployed it feels almost impossible to be optimistic on the market/economy.

And there's this; even with new ATH's in nasdaq, a look under the hood shows weakness. The percentage of Nasdaq Composite stocks above their 50 dma (red line) is in a nosedive. With 5-6 Nasdaq stocks making up the vast majority of the indexes gains this year, its not hard to understand why.

This market has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it. Smart money traders are talking about this...after last months (May) blowout jobs report, the market screamed higher that Friday with gains carrying over on the following Monday, with June 8th peak marking the Dow's post CV highs of 27,600.

Then 6/11 happened (chart below). Out of nowhere the Dow fell 1800 points (6%) with the Russell 2000 being hit 8%.

Fast forward to this past Friday's blowout jobs report and the mini-rally that followed. Notice the rally hasn't come close to the excitement from last months report. Today’s and tomorrow’s action, important. We're watching the Russell 2000 closely here as well. The R2K remains well below its 200 dma, cannot seem to manage even a decent rally attempt, and continues to flash sell signals on the VRA System.

But here's the repeating pattern that we expect to continue. The repeating pattern we've covered here often and on our daily podcasts (sign up at vrainsider.com/podcast);

The Fed needs these big declines in order to launch their next stimulus/QE program. It's not to easy to launch insert new trillions into the US economy when the markets are ramping higher. The Fed needs fear, if only for a few days, before acting. This is exactly what the Fed has done from those 3/23 lows. A well defined and repeating pattern of taking advantage of stock market sell-offs to launch their next QE program.

Tyler and I expect this pattern to continue. This is the Fed's tell. This is how they will add the additional trillions they have earmarked for US markets. This is how we intend to trade this market, in both VRA and Parabolic Options.

BTW, if you've seen a chart of US bank stocks...and remember, these are the Fed's bosses...you'll know exactly why the Fed must continue to flood the markets will liquidity. Technical analysts call this chart "death warmed over". Our case for the last 2-3 years has been that interest rates will continue to collapse...it's just gravity...with US rates ultimately going the way of Japan and Europe (negative). These are the unintended consequences of $21 trillion in global QE. Bank stocks can only trade in one direction with rates at 0%...lower. Central banks are stuck. They have no choice but to continue with QE...even as it drives rates and bank stocks lower. At some point...maybe 2030 (who knows)...this likely won't end well (but I've also heard that same story since I was a rookie broker with President Reagan in 1985).

More Technical Evidence That the Breakout in PM's and Miners is Real

One of our top technical indicators for judging breakouts in PM's and miners is the GDX to Gold ratio, which tells us the relative strength of the miners to gold itself. The miners tend to lead the metals (in both directions) so when the miners are consistently outperforming gold by 2:1 or better, the potential for sharp moves higher increases.

The GDX:Gold ratio indicator continues to flash "buy", hitting new 4 year highs yesterday with the ruling average at better than 2:1 outperformance. Over the last two days the outperformance of miners to gold is more than 3.5 to 1.

But it's this chart that tells us where we may be headed. This is the GDX to Gold chart from the 2008-2011 bull market. During much of this 3 year, 311% move higher in GDX, the GDX:Gold ratio surpassed 4:1. If PM and miners are approaching the near parabolic move higher that we expect, few groups will turn in better performances over the next 1-2-3 years than the miners. Including Nasdaq/tech/semis.

While the group is hitting heavily overbought levels, we want to see where this move takes us. Gold looks like it wants to take out its all-time highs of 2011, less than $100/oz away from current prices.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Since 2014 the VRA Portfolio has net profits of more than 2300% and we have beaten the S&P 500 in 15/17 years.

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