VRA Weekly Update: VRA Investing System, 36 Years in Development. Why We Use the VRA System to Time the Markets. 1995–2000 Case Study.

Good Thursday morning all. As we welcome new VRA Members it’s important that we’re all on the same page. That means understanding the VRA Investing System, ensuring that we are positioned to crush Mr. Market. As we begin trading today, the VRA System sits at 9/12 Screens Bullish. Our two bearish screens are a) valuations and b) market internals (valuations look to flip to a bullish screen in the 4th quarter) with 1 screen neutral (VRA Momentum Oscillators). We also note that seasonality is not on our side during September to early/mid October. We are semi-patiently waiting to put funds back to work (after taking profits in 5 VRA Portfolio positions) on any market weakness.

VRA Investing System; 36 Years in Development

After my first few years on Wall Street, reality hit me right between the eyes. Fostered by a series of enlightening conversations with my first mentor (RIP Ted Parsons) I discovered that Wall Street’s primary objective was not to make my clients money. The primary objective of Wall Street was to make the firm money, as research worked hand in glove with investment banking, where the serious money was (and is) made for brokerage firms and their elite clients.

Once this reality set in I had two choices; quit and find another profession or find a way to actually make money for my clients. The VRA Investing System was born out of that decision.

The VRA System was built to uncover the best investments (at the best time) and to remove emotion from my investing. It was built to have us out of the markets in times of turmoil (or short) and in the market when the bull wants to run.

The VRA System combines fundamentals, technicals and investor sentiment…the 3 most important elements of investing (in any/all asset classes). We use broad market positions, employing leveraged ETF’s for maximum returns, combined with our ability to ferret out world class, small to mid-cap “growth stock, story stocks” for the opportunity of several hundred percent to more than 1000% in profits.

We rarely recommend more than 15 investments at any one time. If you want to own 30–40–50 stocks, buy an index fund. While technically it would appear that we are aggressive as they come, it is a “controlled aggression”; we know the companies that we recommend. We know their management teams and their business model and we know how to pick winners. Period. I also put my own money in the stocks that I recommend. Anything else would be Wall Street-like hypocrisy. Still, my investment style is not for everyone. I would never recommend placing all of your investment dollars into VRA Portfolio buy rec’s. However, for your “risk capital”…those funds that you put aside to make your retirement account everything that it could/should be, the VRA has been designed to get that job done.

We encourage you to resist the temptation to go “all in” on just 1–2 VRA Buy Rec’s. We only recommend approx. 15 stocks at a time for a reason. Diversification is a hallmark of successful investors and reduces the risk of becoming emotional about our positions. “Loading up” can also lead to large daily/weekly swings in your portfolio…the kinds of swings that can lead to oversized losses. Emotional investors tend to “buy high and sell low”, or just the inverse of what we’re looking to accomplish.

For our broad market positions in leveraged ETF’s, the VRA System employs “trend following” methodology. The game plan with trend following is to capture 80% of the move, in our investments of choice. It’s not about calling market tops and bottoms (although the VRA has caught NUMEROUS significant market turning points over our 15 years). Instead, we want to capture that middle 80% of the move…that’s our sweet spot…that’s where the most reliable and predictable profits reside. This makes the VRA System most important…its the major predictor as to whether a stock/sector/market is in a bull or bear market. It’s been my primary trend go-to for 30+ years.

The VRA System has 12 Proprietary Screens. Today (9/8/21), 9 screens remain in bullish mode, 2 screens are in bearish mode (valuations and market internals) and 1 screen is neutral (VRA Momentum Oscillators).

70% of the screens are fundamental and 30% of the screens are technical. Here’s the breakdown of our 12 screens:

This is how the VRA System works…in bull markets or bear. Sure, its MUCH more fun making money in a bull market; making money as we watch the US economy rock and roll and US stock prices soar. This, of course, is the market we are in today. Making money in a bear market means we’re forced to be “pessimists”. And who wants to be pessimistic? I’ve been a glass is half full guy my whole life…its highly likely that 90% reading this identity the same way…but it’s not our job to tell the market what to do, based on our emotions. Our job is to make money and to beat the markets sizably in doing so.

The VRA has outperformed the S&P 500 in 15/18 years. Since 2014 we have more than 2800% in net profits. We believe we are extremely well positioned positioned currently, with approx 60% of the VRA Portfolio in growth and 40% in value.

Investing Tenets and Observations of the Day

My mentors (Ted Parsons and Michael Metz, RIP) were smart, market savvy and most importantly, patient! Here are some of their top investing lessons…

1) “Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the FED”. Not only do we have a Fed that could hardly be more accommodating, we have an entire planet of central banks that are forcing untold trillions into the economy and markets. Full on buy signals here from the Fed. And the “rising tape” demands that we remain bullish.

2) “The trend is your friend”. As trend followers, when the major averages are in confirmed bull market status (according to the VRA System), we want to be long. Conversely, in a confirmed bear market, we want to invest primarily from the short side. Today, if you’re not long, you’re wrong.

3) “There is no more bullish sign than an overbought market/stock that continues to rise”. This is exactly what we’re seeing today. Overbought markets that continue to rise, using sector rotations to work off exuberance, are highly bullish.

4) “It’s not a stock market….it’s a market of stocks”. One of the best investing lessons my mentors taught me. There’s always an opportunity to make money, by focusing on both VRA fundamental & technical research and good old fashioned stock picking. This rule is at the heart of the VRA System.

5) Major bull markets, especially those led by liquidity and corporate earnings, do not end until the public is wildly in love with stocks and aggressively buying every dip. Euphoric. Until the public believes that “the market cannot go lower”, the path of least resistance remains higher.

6) We are medium-long term investors that believe in position building (monthly dollar cost averaging) in our top growth stocks and VRA 10 Baggers and using the VRA Investing System to time buys/sells of our favorite ETF’s. We refer to it as the Peter Lynch school of investing. This is how we crush Mr Market and build long term capital gains.

We had a question yesterday that helps to shed some light on our approach to timing the markets/sectors/stocks, via the VRA System;

“Kip, Tyler and team. Not that I have a problem with taking profits but if your research says this is a melt up market like dot com was, aren’t we taking a big risk being out of your favorite ETF positions?
Thanks, Jeff from NC”

Thanks Jeff. Great question and one that Tyler and I talk about often. The best way to answer it is by looking at this chart of the Nasdaq from 1995–2000, as it soared 575%.

The 4 blue circles below represent corrections of 15% to 32% (bear market) that took place in the Nasdaq, right smack in the middle of the 5 year dot-com melt-up.

1) In mid-96 the nasdaq fell 19%

2) in early 97 the nasdaq fell 15%

3) in late 97 the nasdaq fell 16% (yes, two 10% + corrections inside of 9 months)

4) in mid 98, the nasdaq fell a huge 32% (a 4-month PAINFUL bear market that most everyone today has forgotten about) 

5) then the biggie; a 275% move higher from the late 99 lows to the final peak in March 2020.

This era, 1995–2000, played an important role in the development of the VRA Investing System. I knew several brokers that actually lost money during the best bull market ever. It drove several to quit. You can tell from these big swings exactly how that could happen. Most investors tend to wait until major moves higher have occurred before jumping in…the water feels safer then…only to panic sell as the rug is pulled by Mr Market (he’s a heartless sadist).

Our game plan is simple, as it applies to ETF’s and market timing. We buy low…using the VRA Investing System as our guide…then we take profits when our VRA readings hit extreme overbought. Rinse and repeat. 

BTW, those people you’ve heard say “no one can time the markets and make money doing it”. These are the people that lose money in the markets…because everyone times the market. As human beings we time every buy and sell that we make, of most everything. The key is having a system and the discipline to stick with it.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: Fears of A Tiny Taper. The Bears Are Growling…Music to a Contrarians Ears.

Good Thursday morning all. 1% losses across the board yesterday but we did see an improvement in the internals (most notably in Nasdaq where up/down volume was flat). The markets are in mini-correction mode based primarily on the 3 factors we’ve been covering here; seasonality, internals and anxiety over the Fed.

Yesterdays Fed minutes showed that the Fed is now talking up the possibility of reducing the $120 billion in monthly QE. But we’ll note that these comments are from the July Fed meeting and prior to our most recent economic reports that showed a significant reversal in consumer confidence and weak retail sales. We continue to view this as an overbought pause/correction and will be putting money back to work before long.

With midterms next year and Team Biden needing all the help they can get, there is a near zero percent chance that the Fed tapers aggressively, if at all next year. The Fed’s financial engineering cannot be put back into the bottle. We’ll have (much) more QE, not less. QE infinity. The 10 year yield sitting at 1.24% this AM, soon headed sub 1% again, should confirm our forecasts. Everything about Bidens presidency screams “Obamas 3rd Term”. Get ready for what will almost certainly be the biggest blowout in midterms, ever. Dems may lose 80 seats in the House.

And we love the fact that the bears are aggressively coming out of the woodwork. Seeing calls left and right now for a 10–20% correction into year end. Sentiment surveys are confirming it as well. Here we sit just 3 days from ATH’s yet the Fear & Greed Index has already fallen back to 25 (Extreme Fear). Music to a contrarians ears.

Futures are lower again this AM. Dow -320. We’re beginning to see our VRASystem screens hit heavily oversold (already) on some of our key indicators.

It’s too soon to act today but remember to look for VRA Alert in your subject line when we are taking action.

With thanks to our friends at The Earnings Scout, these Q2 earnings are just insane. We forecast 80% year over year beats on EPS but they’re coming in at 92.28%. Just…wow.

And folks, if you think Q3 is going to be a letdown, you’re going to be surprised once again. We’re looking for 25–30% growth in Q3 (the street is at 17%).

We had a slight adjustment lower on Monday in the VRA Investing System, as we move from 10/12 Screens bullish to 9/12 screens bullish. We remain highly bullish for the medium-long term but have concerns about the short term potential for a move lower in the broad markets. Short term concerns:

1) Seasonality: While this week is actually seasonally positive, the rest of August and then September make up the worst period for investors (back to 1950).

2) The internals have been poor for the better part of 12 weeks. At some point the fact that the majority of stocks are struggling will likely have an impact on our mega cap market leaders. We see it here in the nasdaq advance/decline ($NAAD), which peaked in mid-May. When the markets are hitting ATH after ATH, our market leader (tech/nasdaq) should be putting up better A/D readings.

3) The macro environment is looking more and more risk-off. The Biden administration is coming completely unglued (more on that next). Our enemies are obviously paying attention. In addition, Fridays consumer confidence readings and this mornings Empire Manufacturing survey were “not good”. Outside of last March and April’s collapse, aka the onset of CV insanity, this is the biggest drop in the Empire Manufacturing sentiment ever.

VRA Bottom Line: We’ve raised some cash of late, putting us in a solid position to put funds back to work should our markets correct. We are VERY interested in adding to our VRA miners and energy positions as we aggressively look for our next opportunity in tech.

Our game plan is unchanged; with the markets nervous about geopolitical instability and the Jackson Hole Fed party (8/26–28), plus ongoing horrid internals we are waiting to add to existing positions and establish new positions. We’ve raised cash of late and are looking to redeploy it when the VRA Investing System gives us the signal. It certainly doesn’t help the Fed’s cause when they’re attempting to announce a QE taper into a collapse in consumer confidence and weakening retail sales, just as foreign central banks are withdrawing their plans to taper QE. And here’s an important point; the Fed has never initiated a withdrawal of QE when the University of Michigan sentiment reading is below 70 (as was just announced).

We repeat; there will be no serious tapering to speak of whatsoever this year or next. Certainly not with midterms coming. Especially with the humiliation that is the Afghanistan defeat. Our coward-in-chief has no coat tails to ride.

Big Trouble in China

We’re also learning this morning that the SEC appears to be going full bore against China. It started yesterday when they warned investors about owning Chinese stocks and continues this morning as they announce theyare looking into Chinese use of offshore structures for their US listings. This is EXACTLY what Trump warned about. Japan had 2 lost decades. Here at the VRA we believe it’s Chinas turn (but we’re also watching closely for what could be exceptional short term trading opportunities in both VRA and Parabolic Options.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: Q3 is Here. Welcome to Best Day and Best Two Weeks of the Year.

Good Thursday morning all. Excellent day in the Dow Jones yesterday (+210…we love both the Dow and R2K charts here) but slow summer-like day elsewhere. ATH’s once again in S&P 500 and we’ve now had back-to-back-to-back days with ATH’s in the semis as SMH put up a bit of a furious rally into the final 15 minutes to close just slightly green (we own SOXL, the 3 x Semi ETF), as semis and tech have continued to lead the way higher. Little is more bullish….semis lead nasdaq/tech, nasdaq leads everything else.

Dow futures +50, nasdaq -10 this AM.

Reminder that we’ve now entered the best 2 weeks of the year for US stocks, as Q2 has come to a close. Significantly, this is the beginning of both a new month and a new quarter. Historically “highly bullish” time frame.

Here come “serious” equity inflows from pensions, 401k’s, retirement funds (again, fresh month and a fresh quarter) along with record levels of share buybacks and the anticipation of Q2 earnings reports (which kick off mid-month).

The path of least resistance for stocks remains higher.

And a reminder that today (the first trading day of July) is THE most bullish day of the year over the last 32 years. From Stock Traders Almanac;

“On the first trading day of July the S&P 500 has advanced 87.5% of the time (up 28 times in 32 years) with an average gain of 0.49%. DJIA has advanced 26 times in the same 32 years (81.3%) and NASDAQ has risen in 24 of those years (75.0%) with an average advance of 0.33% in all years.

No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring the first trading day of July the most bullish day of the year over the past 32 years.

VRA Macro Mega Themes: Many continue to miss the most important mega themes of our new bull market. We’ve targeted these key points for most of the last year. They include:

-This IS a new bull market. It will last for years. Dips are to be bought.

-It’s driven by massive liquidity and a surging US and global economy. The Fed continues with $120 billion/month in QE. Even when the Fed begins to taper…whenever that may be…it will only “taper” their purchases. And even when the Fed starts hiking rates (circa mid 2023, if ever), history tells us that the markets continue to rise through “at least” the first 3 rate hikes. And globally we now have $30.5 trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus. Holy liquidity batman. Don’t fight the tape…Don’t fight the Fed…and never ever, ever, ever fight an unprecedented mountain of global liquidity. 

-Millennials (and the investing public) have fallen back in love with investing/stocks/real estate. We have cryptos to thank for this. Millennials are in the process of inheriting $70 trillion and they are plowing it into stocks/real estate/cryptos…and they have diamond hands. Massively underreported and hyper-important short-medium and long term investment theme. 

-The Fear and Greed Index still sits in FEAR territory, even as we’re at ATH’s. It’s hard to express our amazement at this action in investor sentiment except to say “this is not how sentiment reacts when we’re anywhere near any kind of market top”. 

-This remains a PSYOP. The Big Bribe, meant to make us forget about CV insanity, a rigged and stolen election and the ongoing theft of our constitutional rights. And if Dems want any shot at retaining their across the board power in DC…unless they find a way to rig congressional races all across the country…they require a strong economy and market. And of course, their besties….the Federal Reserve…will do everything in their power to make that happen. AKA “lower rates for longer”. 

Fastest Earnings Recovery Ever. 

As the graph below makes clear, S&P 500 earnings have demolished both the recent past and most all analyst estimates. Even today, analysts have S&P 500 earnings at just $191.29 by year end.
Like our friends at Evercore (right as rain), we’re looking for “at least” $205/share by years end. And no, Q2 earnings will not mark peak earnings.

And every sell side (retail) analyst on Wall Street has missed the size of the move higher this year. They’ve all been on the low side. 
(just not your two guys from Texas…)

Finally for today, The June jobs report is tomorrow. If you’ve been with us long you know that we couldn’t care less about monthly economic data of any sort. We pay attention to trends…that’s what the VRA Investing System keys off of. 

But, if I had to make a forecast…it’s just so hard to trust this data month to month, whether in an R or D administration…I’d guesstimate that tomorrows jobs report will be another disappointment (which would make 3 straight reports with a miss to estimates). Here’s why; with so many fresh trillions in stimulus (fiscal and monetary) working its way into the US economy, this fiat money actually serves as competition to a free market economy. That competition serves to rob the normal functioning power of an economy and jobs growth with it. We saw exactly this during Obama’s 8 years (minimum wage job growth was solid, high paying jobs growth not so much) and I expect more of the same during Biden’s time.

What does this mean? I expect slower growth going forward. Not a recession…nothing like that…just an economy that acts like its been manipulated and manufactured…because that’s just what is taking place. 

It also means lower rates (for longer, possibly even negative rates in the US by end of 2024) and much more stimulus and QE. #QEInfinity. And yes, all of this fits well with our melt-up theme for US and global stock markets.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: VRA Stock Market Melt-Up Forecast; Joe Biden as Bill Clinton.

Good Thursday morning all. Yesterday may have been a quiet day on the surface, but like ducks on the water it was a much different story below the water line. We’ve just had back to back days with fresh ATH’s in Nasdaq and Q’s (Nasdaq 100), the semis led the way higher (they’ll hit ATH’s soon), and we just had our best readings of VRA Investing System internals in 7 trading days. And this morning, S&P 500 futures have joined the party, hitting ATH’s in premarket trading. 

Can you hear that sound in the near distance? It’s the drumbeat of a coming melt-up move higher in US and global stock markets. 

After you’ve done something for 36 years, not much surprises you. Not really. But folks, what we’re seeing take place with equity inflows, share buybacks, corporate earnings and unprecedented global liquidity…not to mention the fact that we’re at ATH’s and investors are still skittish…shocks even me (Tyler too. And he’s been doing this with me from about 3 years old, studying charts nightly). 

First, check out this chart of equity inflows, from 2016 to present (the US is in baby blue). Parabolic move higher doesn’t come close to describing what's really taking place here. This is how a melt-up move higher starts.

And here’s the chart of share buybacks from corporations, going back to 2000. With 6 months to go in 2021, total YTD authorizations have already blown past the 2018 peak.
It’s increasingly likely that share buybacks could break $1 trillion this year, a record X two.

Yet, somehow…with all of this bullishness, ATH’s, buybacks, liquidity and equity inflows, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 35. Investor Sentiment is “fearful”. What??
As you’ve heard us say often, if we had to pick just one reason to be over-the-top, out of our minds bullish, seeing lots and lots of bearish investors at ATH’s is that reason. 
This is not how bull markets end…it’s how bull markets pick up speed.

This remains a textbook set-up for a major move higher in stocks.

The VRA has remained aggressively long…its actually time to become even more aggressive (if that’s possible for us).

When it comes to corporate earnings, analysts have been raising their estimates, but not by nearly enough. Companies start reporting Q2 earnings mid-July, and analysts are looking for S&P 500 EPS to increase by 64% vs a year earlier, according to Refinitiv, which compares with a forecast of 54% at the beginning of the quarter. The comparison is with the worst period of the crisis last year, of course, but earnings are also expected to be about 8% above their second-quarter 2019 level.

Analysts’ earnings estimates at the end of any given quarter are usually short of how earnings actually come in, but given how on-fire the economy has been, we fully expect these estimates to be “crazy low”.

What happened in Q1 might be instructive; analysts thought S&P 500 earnings would grow by 16%, but actual growth came in at 58%. I fully expect Q2 earnings results to blow Q1 out of the water.

Again, this is a melt-up environment…lets see how it actually plays out. We remain long and strong.

Adding to our VRA Melt-up Forecast; “Joe Biden as Bill Clinton” 

We know from tons of your feedback (and I really hear it on Twitter) that it’s really, really, really hard for many to be bullish with the “pretender” Joe Biden sitting in the White House. Trust me, it’s not been easy for us either. But our job is to look through the noise and find the next mega-trends. That’s what we’ve worked on of late with the melt-up effects from the millennial generation (the smartest, most intuitive and soon to be wealthiest generation ever), and as you’ve heard us get into of late we think we have another melt-up mega trend with Biden as president. Yes, we think Biden could eventually be known as the stock market melt-up president. I covered this over much of my 25 minute VRA Podcast yesterday…here it is in writing for the first time

The comparisons are “really” interesting. In 1992, Bill Clinton ran and won as a liberal, beating daddy Bush (thanks again H Ross Perot) and at the same time Dems picked up both the house & senate. This is the exact set-up for Biden. But Clinton never really governed as a liberal. He was a tough on crime moderate, he aggressively cut spending & he worked well with R’s. 

He had no choice but to work well with R’s. In the 1994 midterms, Dems lost both the house and senate. If you’ve been reading the tea leaves, it looks HIGHLY LIKELY that Biden will lose both the House and Senate next year. Again, a parallel to Clinton is building. 

For Clinton’s last 6 yrs he had no real power…or so people thought,..but he employed something he coded as “triangulation” to pit both sides against each other. 

Not that Biden has Clinton's brain power or instincts…he certainly does not…but folks, this show in DC is being run by our “planners”; call them the deep state or shadow government but whatever you call them, they put him in office and they’re running the show. Biden as puppet president…and it might just mean a booming stock market and economy. 

Clinton even ran a budget surplus (no ones done that since) he had a 5% GDP and his presidency still marks the best stock market returns of ALL presidents, with the S&P 500 averaging 26.2% per year over his 8 years. We also had the dot-com melt-up under slick Willy, as the nasdaq soared 575% from 1995–2000. Boom!

Who wouldn’t take that with Biden??

** And here come the additional parallels to Clinton that we’re finding VERY interesting. It’s remarkable what’s just happened under Biden** 

Both the voting rights act & the removal of the filibuster have just failed in the Senate. If you’ve been paying attention you noticed that Biden didn’t go to bat for either (that’s because he’s never really been a far left liberal…he’s an old white guy that loves real estate, low taxes and capitalism…and yes, lots and lots of police). 

These latest events mean that elections will not be federalized (aka rigged) and that nothing will pass in the senate without at least 60 votes (aka no far left laws will get passed)

We find these comps to Clinton striking…this may become one of our new base cases supporting a melt-up move higher. 

It also has the potential to be great for the economy and maybe even for America as a whole. We’re certainly seeing an entire country getting red-pilled. 

Another VRA contrarian call that we’re developing…and BTW, if Biden and Dems want to have any hopes of winning the midterms or again in 2024, they had better melt-up the markets and the economy…because their popularity is essentially nonexistent. Fake news polls not withstanding….

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Weekly Update: J Powell & The Bond Market Vigilantes. Beginning of the Big Bubble.

Good Thursday morning all. We begin this morning with a tip of the cap to the Fed’s J Powell. Not only did the Fed nail their written FOMC comments (no rate hikes through 2023) but Powell followed it up with a strong presser, rarely going off-script. More of this please. But we must also remind investors that the Fed does not lead on the direction of rates…the markets lead and the Fed follows. 

Bond yields continue to creep higher, with the 10 yr up again this AM to 1.73%, a new post CV insanity high. 

I remember well the last time the bond market vigilantes (BMV’s) showed up. It was early on in Bill Clintons presidency as Clinton attempted to increase budget spending, but the bond market wasn’t having it.
Yields began to spike sharply higher, sending a clear message to Clinton to back off deficit spending. Clinton famously asked “WTF are these bond market vigilantes” with his hatchet man James Carville saying “when I come back I want to come back as the bond market”.

Who are these bond market vigilantes? They are, without question, central bankers and the money/banking cartel. This is cartel #1, of the 7 cartels so famously exposed and written about by my good friend G Edward Griffin of “The Creature From Jekyll Island” fame. At my events, where Ed spoke more than 20 times over an 8 year period (2005–2013), Ed did an entire 1 hour presentation on the 7 Cartels and how they run the world. When we talk about our “planners” this is who we’re referring to. And yes, we fully intend to have Ed back with us for our VRA Conferences, beginning a bit later in the year.

Bottom line: If central banks (BMV’s) want Biden to back off of spending and tax increases, we’ll know it because 10 yr yields will REALLY start to spike. Should we get past a 2% 10 yr yield, on velocity, then Biden will be forced to pay attention. Frankly, I doubt we’ll cross that bridge. After all, Byden is in office because of our planners. If Byden were to get a mind of his own, he’d be green screened out of office quicker than we can say “President Harris”.

If the bond market vigilantes are in fact returning (highly doubtful in my view), we’ll know it because rates will continue to spike higher and the Fed will have limited options to stop rates from doing just that. 

Here at the VRA we’ll concede that the 10 yr might hit 2%…its 1.73% this AM…but we remain big believers that gravity will keep US rates lower for longer.

And no, inflation is not 2%. Low levels of inflation, which is best defined as currency inflation, remain one of the biggest fibs that economists have foisted on the public by the banking cartel. Folks, there’s a reason the US dollar has lost 97% of its value since the Fed was created in 1913, then picking up one more currency debasement when Nixon took the US off of the gold standard in 1971. That reason? Unending and unlimited printing of fiat currency. No…inflation is not running near 2%. Not. Even. Close.

DYK that the Fed employs more than 1000 economists? And while they aren’t forced to disclose these vast conflicts of interest, what I can assure you of is that most every economist you see on TV is in fact employed by the Fed, in one nature or another (big grants, most commonly). In the event you wondered why you’ve never heard an economist bash the Fed on TV, now you know why. “Money, money, money…m.o.n.e.y.”

Probably just a coincidence…

VRA Market Update

Big reversal higher in the markets yesterday as the Fed minutes were released. Especially in nasdaq. We see this as a significant tell. Dips should be bought. We’ll get that chance again this morning as Nasdaq futures are -220 while Dow futures are flat. 

Markets never move in a straight line, up or down, but what is most important is that we remember that we have entered a new bull market of size and scope, both in the US and abroad. 

The global economy is flush with fiat money, inflation is rising (early inflation is highly bullish with the return of pricing power). Higher early cycle interest rates have the same impact. Broadly bullish. We are now in the markets sweet spot. This is when accelerating momentum “forces” markets higher. 

This is the beginning of the “Big Bubble”. Funded in large part by the “Big Bribe”…the PSYOP of all PSYOPS. But this move higher is real, as is the global economic recovery.

AND commodities are “working” and should continue to work. Oil, copper, gold, silver, base metals, etc…that’s roughly 50% of the vra portfolio. This is our time to crush Mr Market. Everyone reading this should know how strongly I feel about the exact environment we are in today.
We will make fortunes in VRA 10 Baggers going forward. Each month, continue to use dollar cost averaging in our top names. Make sure and login to your VRA Portfolio each week to ensure you are positioned properly. 

My biggest concern? It’s Team Biden. Not a close second. We saw troubling news yesterday as the UAW informed workers that Ford is moving a major project worth $900 million to Mexico.

The Dow is up 150….Nasdaq down 150 points. We remain bullish but short term a bit overbought. 

I’ll leave you with some interesting work from Bespoke Research;

“In the 16 prior years that the S&P has been up 5–10% YTD through 3/15, the index has seen rest-of-year gains 15 times for an average gain of 14.8%.”

Big time bullish stats right there for the remainder of the year.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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