VRA Investment Update: The Fed Statement & Powell Presser Had Little in Common. Dovish! Markets Have (Likely) Bottomed. Sentiment is Screaming "Buy".

Good Thursday morning all. Following another wild day in the markets, here’s what looks to matter most. The last 3 days have brought severe intraday weakness…Powell made sure of that yesterday…but on each of the 3 days the smart money hour was “bullish”. On Monday we recouped 1200 points in losses….500 on Tuesday…then 500 again yesterday. Markets that rise in late day/smart money hour trading are typically anything but bearish. 

But just a horrible presser…the worst I’ve seen in my career. He was nervous, stuttering and stammering, completely non-committal and man oh man does this guy like to blabber. The markets have no confidence in the money printing rock star, whatsoever. From +500 to panic selling to someone cutting his mic. Of course, the second his mic was cut, it was lift off.

Quick recap of JP’s (latest) disaster of a presser, which I forced myself to go back and watch again last night:

- It was even more dovish than I remembered it. Powell committed to “nothing”, as he said a version of “we don’t yet know” more than 50 x. 

- He opened by saying (exact quotes): “The economy is slowing. The implications for the economy are uncertain and its causing great hardships for families. We have not yet made decisions on exactly what we will do”.
 
- Does any of the above sounds like 4 rate hikes in 2022 to you??

- Again, the FOMC statement read NOTHING like the words that came out of JP’s mouth. Importantly, the statement made clear that they would NOT start selling bonds (they own $9 trillion), but would instead let them “roll off” or “run off”, meaning they will simply let the existing bonds mature. Again, that’s not QT. 

My read: Obviously, inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern. Yellen (Treasury Sec and previous Fed Chair) is now a full-on political creature. Hiking rates aggressively in a midterm year and causing a severe bear market potentially in the process is NOT what her boss wants to see happen. JP likely has Q1 to get inflation under control, hence all of the jaw boning and supposed hawkishness. 

The markets have little to no confidence that JP know what he is doing. They’re right to have that view, certainly with the fact that he’s already made 4 major policy mistakes since taking the job.

VRA Bottom Line: Mondays lows should be THE lows. Thats:

- 33,150 on the Dow (34,168 today)

- 4222 on SPX (4349 today)

- 33,150 on Nasdaq (13,542 today)

** If these lows are taken out (by more than a hair), lower prices are likely into the first rate hike…then blast off higher. But I see Mondays lows holding. Next up: we must regain the 200 dma’s.

Sentiment HIGHLY Bearish (that’s bullish):

Folks, it’e getting harder to find bulls on Wall Street. But I promise you this; if we get the move higher that Tyler and I expect, these same gurus will tell us that they bought the dip. I was actually a bit surprised to see this yesterday. As flattered as Tyler and I might be that GS (vampire squid), Citi and JPM are following our market calls, you know our views as contrarians; we almost always feel more comfortable when we are in direct opposition to what the NY swamp has to say.

BUT…in this case, since we’re leading and not following, we are in complete agreement. 

This is still setting up as a strong rally into weeks end. Likely longer. 

AAII Sentiment Survey is hitting the highest levels of bears since the final 2 weeks of CV insanity, March 2020. Bulls are a measly 23%. 
Again, if you’re a contrarian (this guy), you are salivating to add to your positions…as we’ve just done.

** Futures are solidly higher as we start the day. I think these gains will hold and I look for another strong smart money hour. 


CV Insanity is officially over in the UK. Who would have thought they would end the ridiculous policies of masking and jab mandates before we did in the US??



God Bless The Truckers! Largest convoy in history. 50,000 trucks and more than 1.4 million people. US truckers are on their way now as well. Who knows, this might be enough to give (more) Canadians a backbone. 

https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1486508908093087751



Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Please join us each day after the market closes for our Daily VRA Investing Podcast!
Sign up for email alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast

And check Out Our Latest (now daily podcast!) Videos on YouTube

VRA Investment Update: Biden is a Disaster. AAII Survey, Extreme Fear! Opportunity is Nearing.

Good Thursday morning all. A big about-face in the markets yesterday, as another weak smart money hour brought steady selling pressures, with each index finishing right at their lows of the day. Nasdaq has now fallen into correction territory, down 10.7% and doing so in short order. And we’re hearing more chatter about Russia-Ukraine…certainly if you watched Biden’s presser yesterday. The permanent ruling class owns the vast majority of our media (through well placed intelligence community assets), so it was no surprise that more than 50% of the questions were about Russia. The drumbeats of war. 

What do presidents tend to do when their ratings are in the toilet, with an election coming up? Wag the dog. 

And trust me when I tell you that the last thing the Fed will do is start hiking rates aggressively if global conflict, between 2 nuclear powers no less, becomes a possibility. 

I’m not a big TV news guy but I will say that Tucker Carlson has been all over this issue the last few nights, putting the military industrial complex on notice…we’re on to you. 

One of the more popular online polling orgs is Breaking 911. With 6 days left to go on their latest Twitter poll, “what grade would you give Biden”, check out the early results: 85% give him an “F”. Desperate presidents do desperate things. What a horrible presser, from this pretender in our White House. 81 million votes my ass.

The internals were better but that’s not saying much. Another day with poor readings for nasdaq 52 week lows (772 new lows, following Tuesdays 818). This market is trading very heavy. Selling pressure of size. 

But we smell opportunity approaching, as covered in yesterdays VRA Update with our pre-alert on TQQQ (3 x Nasdaq 100 ETF) and the NEW pre-alert that we have for you this morning NAIL (3 x Housing ETF).

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Last nights AAII Survey (weekly, which I’ve voted in for >20 yrs) shows a big drop in bulls, down 3.9% to to 21%, with bears up a very big 8% to 46.7%. This is the lowest number of bulls since July 2020. 
As contrarians this is music to our bullish ears.

LOTS of fear is building in this market. The bricks are going up in our wall of worry. It’s the stuff of short term bottoms. 

But the reality is that this trading has been heavy….ugly…frankly the Fed’s first rate hike can’t get here soon enough. 

They should do it now….raise rates by .50% this week and be done with it for 6 months. The markets would scream higher on this, IMO. 

Three Steps and a Stumble

That’s what my first mentor, Ted Parsons (RIP) called it, once the Fed started hiking rates. “3 steps and a stumble”, meaning that stocks continue to rise until “at least” the 3rd hike.

Here’s the supporting data. Going back to 1958, big gains have historically followed the initial rate hike, on average for more than 3 years with an average gain in the S&P 500 of 67%.

Personal note: I am stunned by some of the fear mongering we’re seeing from long term market watchers (“gurus”) over rate hikes. The data above is available to all…it’s not exactly a secret. 
A reminder to be careful about listening to permabears. They are, more than anything, list builders. That is their business model…building lists…and they know that fear is the most powerful motivator in getting people to act. Man oh man, have we ever seen this with the plandemic called CV insanity.

Be Prepared To Act

With a wall of worry that’s quickly building, I look for us to first get a “flush” before bottoming and reversing higher. That’s mine and Tyler’s wish, as Tyler covered in detail on his podcast yesterday. We have 2 targets that are setting up perfectly as VRA Investing System as our strongest buy candidates; check them out with our 14-day free trial at VRAInsider.com

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and Rumble

VRA Investment Update: Structural Bull Market of Size and Scope. Q4 Earnings. Investor Sentiment Buy Signals. CV Insanity; Wake Up DC, Wake Up America!

Good Thursday morning all. After a solid open, following the worst inflation data in the US in almost 40 years, the markets traded listlessly throughout the rest of the day but importantly, the internals do continue to show improvement.It’s not the news that matters most, it’s the markets reaction to that news. Tomorrow kicks off Q4 earnings reports in style as big banks begin reporting (Citi, Wells, JPM, Blackrock). While US markets never reached heavily/extreme oversold levels on the VRA System, even as tech had a quick 10% correction, we may have just seen the lows for the near term. Semis and tech continue to lead, the internals are improving and we expect earnings reports to “significantly “ beat analyst estimates once again. Frankly, that should be the theme throughout the year, even as yes, the midterm election year in the 2nd year of a presidency tends to be weak.

We’ll continue to pick our spots with our ETF’s, while focusing on our top growth stocks that should (significantly) outperform the broad markets. We’re also in the best period of the year for small caps.

Investor Sentiment

Last nights AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which I’ve voted in for more than 30 years, came back with sharply bearish readings, with bulls falling a big 8% to 25% and bears rising to 38% (+5% on the week).

As contrarians, this is just what we want to see. 25% bulls, just a week or so away from ATH’s in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones can only be called “massively bullish”.

Bit of a mixed bag here, as the Fear & Greed Index never really got hit hard during the last downdraft, with a reading today of 64 (Greed). Frankly, this is in line with how sentiment should be acting.

As a reminder, we would not want to start taking significant profits until the Fear & Greed Index is hitting 85+.

Rona is ending (except in blue states..sorry friends), we’ve just had a 10% shake-out correction in tech, Biden is a lame duck and the midterms get closer with each passing day. 

And yes, this still feels (kinda sorta) like Bill Clintons presidency to me, home to the best 8 years for the stock market in US history. Biden can try all he wants to rule by fiat (Executive Orders), but unless our SCOTUS has completely sold out to America hating communists…I don’t believe thats even close to being the case…Biden will soon have no choice but to work with a deeply red and much more MAGA-ish house and senate. 

Tyler and I continue to see this as the best set-up for our markets since 1995–2000. And yes, we love the fact that we’re about the only people you’ll find saying it. 

This bull market is entirely structural in nature, driven by unprecedented liquidity, surging corporate earnings…which will soon blow away estimates again…and powered by the most important economic and leading indicator elements of housing and transpiration. As long as housing and the trannies are on fire…they very much are today….the US economy will continue to be on rock solid footing. 

Even with this mornings inflation reading of a hot 7% CPI (year over year), the structural components of both the economy and markets should continue to power stocks higher. Bull markets do not end until corporate earnings top, which we still see as a 2026-ish event. 

As to the bond market and higher rates, you know our thoughts. Rate hikes are bullish for stocks. And no, we will not have 4 rate hikes this year. Today, there are a record number of shorts in the treasury market, meaning that even when we get a hot CPI number, the path of least resistance is lower for yields (as the shorts cover). It’s one of the best times in my career to be a contrarian, when it comes to rates. Most all economists move in lockstep…they are monoliths…driven by what their employers at the Fed command. Lower rates, for longer, remains the smart money play.

CV Insanity Update

While we continue to see highly encouraging signs that CV insanity is ending in the US, we must keep a close eye on these authoritarian tyrants that wish to turn the planet into a dystopian communist monolith.

Have you see the new walls/barricades that late yesterday started being erected around the White House? What exactly is going on here?? All while our nations capital is full-on totalitarianism, requiring that before you leave your home you must have your vax papers and ID. Lets see if we have this right; it’s racist to require ID to vote, but completely fine to require ID’s to leave your home. WHAT? Where are our R elected officials, who should be screaming from mountaintops? Outrageous!!

And folks, it’s becoming equally dystopian here in Texas, as Houston Methodist Hospital has announced they are requiring all employees to have their booster from March 1 or be fired. As we’ve said for close to 2 years, we must stop complying…because they won’t stop pushing. Governor Abbott, please come out of hiding and answer the calls for a special session of congress to make tax mandates illegal. Your EO is doing exactly nothing. Texas needs new leadership. Feels like Beto o’Rourke is Governor today.

Here’s the bottom line. If we keep complying, they will keep taking. And taking. And taking. Are you awake yet?

First it was ‘prevent transmission’. 

Next it was ‘prevent symptoms’. 

Then it was ‘prevent hospitalization’. 

Then it was ‘prevent serious illness and death’. 

Now? If you end up vented in the ICU, in Australia (and Canada) it means the vaccines working. Global mass psychosis.

If you think this can’t/won’t come to America, you have not been paying attention.

#DoNotComply

#Nuremberg2

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and YouTube

VRA Investment Update: Brutal Smart Money Hour. Investor Sentiment Flashing Buy Signals. Flatting Yield Curve and the Reality of Obama's 3rd Term.VRA 10 Bagger

Good Thursday morning all. From +518 to -461 at the close, the Dow Jones had a near 1000 point reversal lower yesterday. An even larger percentage decline occurred in Nasdaq, which had a near 600 point swing. 

Not what we wanted to see…not what I expected to see. Horrible smart money hour. Once again, Nasdaq new 52 week lows keep putting up big numbers as 571 stocks hit new lows. And this stat is attention getting; while the S&P 500 is down a tiny 4% from ATH, at the same time there are now 486 stocks in the S&P 500 down 25% or more, in the last 30-days. Brutal action underneath the surface, as mega caps continue to support the broad markets from exhibiting larger losses.

And we’re really seeing fear make its presence known (that’s bullish), as the AAII Sentiment Survey saw bulls collapse to 26.7% with bears jumping to 42.4% (highest reading since Sept 2020)

And wow. The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 22 (extreme fear). Just over 3 weeks ago it was 87 (extreme greed). Bearish sentiment like we’re seeing now is exactly how bottoms/reversals take place.

This morning, Dow futures are once again higher (+200) while Nasdaq is -40. The culprit? Breaking news from late yesterday that Apple is telling suppliers that iPhone demand is slowing.

As we’ve said for some time, and as Apple may now be witnessing, we are in Obama’s 3rd term. That’s likely what this decline is about. The US economy will only grow more slowly from here. And, if the Fed removes the punch bowl, we’ll be witness to a massive policy error as we head into midterms…Dems will get crushed even worse. Any Fed tapering will be short-lived.

We see the slowing US economy here, in the change in longer term treasury yields, since 10/1, as 10–20–30 year yields continue to decline. AKA, we are seeing a flattening of the yield curve.

Treasury Yield Change, Post 10/1, Bottom Line:

- Since October 1, the yield on 3-year notes has gone up 32 basis points.

- The yield on the 30-year long bond has fallen 26 basis points.

- This is a relative flattening of 58 basis points, or more than double what two 1/4 point rate hikes would achieve.

VRA Bottom Line; the markets (bond market vigilantes) are front running the Fed. If the yield curve continues to flatten, the word “recession” will be begin to be heard. While we do not expect a recession, we do expect growth will slow. Not go negative, but slow. This will become the next goldilocks set-up for higher stock prices, as the Fed pushes back their taper and rate hikes, and as 10 year yields keeps falling. 

Trump Media (DWAC): We will soon be adding to our position in DWAC, officially bringing down our cost basis. DWAC jumped some 20% after hours on the news that they are raising $1 billion. 
DWAC is a VRA 10 Bagger and must be owned, short, medium and long term. https://finance.yahoo.com/m/af64c690-aed3-3a13-bf56-04fc7058067a/digital-world-acquisition.html

Peter Navarro from yesterday, becoming even more direct about Fauci the Fraud. Until they start “publicly” talking about the 100’s of business deals with big pharma that Fauci has closed over the last 40+ years, as head of US healthcare (NIH), likely netting him more than $100 million (The Real Anthony Fauci, by RFK, Jr), the public may never wake up.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and YouTube

Special VRA Investment Update: Here We Go Again. The CV Insanity Playbook, Next Chapter. My Thoughts.

Good Friday morning all and hope everyone in the states had a great Thanksgiving. Half day of trading in the US today. 

We went to bed last night with Dow futures -300 on fears of a new CV variant out of South Africa (uh-huh) and we woke up to losses of -800. 

My thoughts:

- Now we know why the Nasdaq internals have been so horrible. “The tell”. 

- Is this the CV playbook, next chapter? The vaccines have failed miserably…from humanities point of view…but they’ve almost certainly spawned this rash of variants all over the planet, which is also likely by design. They needed a reason to introduce “new and improved vaccines”. As Bill Gates admitted in recent interview (below), “it’s time to try something new”. Like the current vaxxes, only God knows what will be in the new breed. But quick, jab your kids (HARD pass). 

- We’ve long wondered how they would try and rig the mid-terms. Only way to do it is to keep unlimited mail-in voting going. Let’s hope R’s are bright enough to recognize the steal this time (always a fair question).

- Over the last week on Twitter we noticed that they had started suspending and banning truth tellers again…numerous world renowned doctors and medical experts have recently been suspended or kicked off. Social media co’s commonly do this in advance of the next chapter of “the playbook”. Early Thursday morning I was placed in Twitter jail again, suspended for a week…my 4th suspension. I’ll be banned soon as well…likely my last strike before its permanent. Here’s the tweet that did it…must not talk about therapeutics or natural immunity…and must NEVER reveal the plandemic.

- Not only will the next chapter negate the need for tapering to continue, much less rate hikes (QE Infinity!), but it will help Team Biden (permanent ruling class) pass their monstrosity of a stimulus plan. Again, this has been the repeating pattern from the birth of CV insanity. Must keep people in fear…including of course our elected officials…in order to pass trillions more in stimulus and QE. 

- The Big Bribe (TM) lives on!

- Here at the VRA we’ve said…repeatedly…that CV is long over, from the markets point of view. That should continue to be the case. Think about it this way; how far will the markets fall before they then begin to discount the additional trillions in stimulus and QE now on the way? 

- The one unknown; if this is the hard new push for new jabs, or to rig the midterms, how far might they take this?? 

- We’ll be watching Semis, Nasdaq and tech stocks. They lead in both directions. 

- Gold is up $22/oz. providing its role as safe haven asset class. The 10 yr is down to 1.53% this AM, also in a flight to safety trade.

- Oil is down 5% on European travel bans already announced. Fauci the fraud said this AM that we may have them soon as well. I encourage everyone to read The Real Anthony Fauci by RRK, Jr. Evil walks among us…as it leads our nations death-care system at the same time. 

- We’ve recently taken profits in 3 lev ETF’s (SOXL, TNA and NAIL), while adding one (ERX). We will use the VRA Investing System to begin adding positions once again. 

A must-watch video, in the event you may have forgotten the never-ending lies of these absolute frauds (Gates, Fauci, CDC, etc, etc, etc)

https://twitter.com/KHerriage/status/1463571928615108618

They love their soccer in the UK so when top players and coaches start collapsing on the field, with several dying in the prime of their careers, even the sheep in Europe are waking up. 
Time for new vaccines (the next page in the playbook)

**If you liked this VRA Update, come and join us! These are the topics we write about everyday while crushing Mr. Market. In the last 6 months alone we have net gains on closed positions of 354%. **

Come and join us for 2 FREE weeks at VRAinsider.com

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Join us for two free weeks at VRAInsider.com

Sign up to join us for our daily VRA Investing System podcast

Also, Find us on Twitter and YouTube