VRA Investment Update: Strategy Update. Pattern Changes, Fed 'Flexibility". The Anatomy of Bull & Bear Markets

Good Thursday morning all. Right at 3 months ago we began our planning for the Biden bear market and issuing our VRA Strategy Updates. We sold our VRA leveraged ETF holdings that focused on tech by selling TQQQ (3 x Nasdaq 100 ETF) and selling SOXL (3 x Semi ETF). We sold TQQQ at $45.94 (it fell to $25) and we sold SOXL at $34.85 (it fell to $18). We’ve also taken 112% in profits over the last 7 months (3 trades) in ERX (2 x Energy ETF).

VRA Strategy Update; that was then and this is now.

Our primary view is that; a) most stocks have bottomed, b) investor sentiment is so bearish that we must be bullish and c) we are buyers.

As we cover here often, most stocks have been in bear market for over a year. But today, if there’s a single piece of analytics that investors should be aware of, I believe this is it. 

After the first 100 days of 2022 this is the 4th worst start to a year for the S&P 500 in history. That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news. When we look at the previous worst starts ever for the S&P 500 we see that the rest of the year the market was higher 100% of the time with an average gain of 19.1%.

Got that? Based on history, going back to 1932, the worst starts to the year are then followed by markets that rise 100% of the time into year end and do so with rock solid profits.

AKA, bull markets follow bear markets…a theme you’ll see repeated throughout this VRA Strategy Update.

Pattern Changes and Fed Flexibility. 

As we’ve been covering over the last week or so, pattern changes appear to be emerging. From 3 straight days with a 600 point move higher in the Dow Jones, to continued improvement in the internals, to excellent smart money hours, this bear market is taking on a new personality. It may only be the set-up for a strong bear market rally, with still lower lows in our future, but I continue to believe that…for most stocks…the lows have already been seen. We are buyers. 

And another potentially massive pattern change…the Fed just committed to “flexibility”, the single word from the Fed’s FOMC minutes yesterday that turned stocks sharply higher on a dime.

Tylers podcast from Tuesday set this week teed up the Fed’s FOMC minutes of yesterday…a sneak preview of what looks to be taking place today. 

There is a new line of thinking beginning to emerge that the US economy is so clearly slowing (housing, trannies, retail and tech/social media/advertising is getting smashed) that the Fed will soon
signal that their aggressive rate hike scheme may not actually be quite so aggressive after all. Again, this matches our thinking. The Fed has been actively jawboning the markets lower, 
doing their best to slow/reverse inflationary concerns. But most of it is just that…talk. 

We just got a bit of confirmation from overseas as well as the ECB is now telegraphing a change to their runoff schedule for QE. Remember, the ECB is still actively involved in QE and is not set to stop buying govt debt until July.

The ECB is essentially acknowledging what we’ve been reporting in the VRA for the last few months. Their economy, post shutting down their banking business with Russian oligarchs and the insanity of attempting to block Russian oil/gas from European markets, has the European economy headed into a recession. 

Late Tuesday, ECB head Christine Lagarde said on Bloomberg “we’re not ready to say that the economy could be headed into a recession but we are watching closely, as always”.

That’s central bank talk for “yeah…a recession is just around the corner”.
We certainly see the US bond market taking note, as the 10 year yield has plummeted from 3.17% (5/9) to 2.74% (chart below).

 From a yield of just 2.3% in late March to a high of 3.16% on 5/9, this sharp ramp higher in rates resulted in the last wave of selling pressure in US stocks. 
Now, with the 10 yr yield reversing course, if the markets are beginning to discount aggressive Fed rate hikes…certainly with everyone already bearish and out of the market…a significant rally could be dead ahead. 
As deeply oversold as the markets are, along with the extreme fear readings of numerous investor sentiment surveys, the markets are ready for a relief rally (at minimum).

NVIDIA (NVDA): The Anatomy of Bull and Bear Markets

Bear markets make even the greatest of co’s look like the ugliest of car crashes. This is especially true in tech stocks.
It’s even more so in the semiconductors, which lead the markets in both directions. This is why you hear Tyler and I harp on and on about the semis.
There is no single group that matters more, when determining market direction and market personality. “Are we in a bull market or bear market?” can be determined most by watching this one group. 

Yesterday after the close, NVIDIA announced earnings and the stock got slammed as much as 9% after hours on a warning over chips and the lockdown in China. 

But that’s not the story I find most relevant. It’s the anatomy of a bear market that makes the NVDA meltdown relevant right now, in late May of 2022.

In the chart below, we see the very definition of an amazing stock. From nowhere, in 2016…just $6/share…a little company called NVIDIA began
to catch fire, as gaming and crypto currencies got red hot. No company did it better. 

From that 2016 starting point until November 2021, NVDA soared 5600%, turning a $10,000 investment into $560,000 in just 5 years.

This is where the relevance to today begins. When we drill down to Q4 2018 we see that NVDA had its first 50% + meltdown (in short order), dropping from $72/share to $30/share in roughly 4 months. 

From there it began its rocket ship move higher to $364/share, which it hit this past November. Buying into that 50% collapse made investors fortunes. But, it was a brutal Q4 bear market.
Sound familiar? 

Now, check out what’s just happened, again. In less than 6 months NVDA has…once again…imploded more than 50% (just as it did in Q4 2018).
And once again, this implosion is due (almost exclusively) to Fed rate hikes. China smyna…the land of semis/tech has been shellacked by central bank “awfulness”. 

BTW, on my podcast yesterday I called my shot…predicting that NVDA just hit their bear market lows of $152/share, down a stunning 56% from Novembers highs. VRA Portfolio Note: we own SOXL (3 x Semi ETF)

** The question that I believe smart money investors are asking themselves today is “at what point do great companies and sectors once again become a screaming buy?”

And this is when we must also take another look at Cathie Woods Innovation ETF (ARKK). Here’s that theme again…greatness, neutered by the brutality of a Fed engineered bear market.

From March 2016 to February 2021, ARKK soared from $13/share to $158/share, an 1100% move higher. No, its not the insane move higher that NVDA had, but we’re also talking about an ETF…rather than an individual stock…and $10,000 invested into the ARKK ETF turned into $110,000, in just 5 years. 

And now, look what’s just happened in 15 short months. ARKK just imploded 77%.

** And once again, the question that I believe smart money investors are asking themselves today is “at what point do great companies and sectors/ETF’s once again become a screaming buy?”

I’m not recommending either NVDA or ARKK here today (we own SOXL and our own portfolio of 10-baggers). I’m making the larger point that bear markets brutalize even the best investment stories. And I’m also making the point that bear markets end…and give way to even greater bull markets. 

Many believe we are at the precipice today, staring into the abyss, with fears of a systemic meltdown, World Economic Forum (Team Biden) style, featuring depopulation and a world war that might just end us all.

It’s essentially impossible to find anyone that’s bullish on US stocks. Again, that was pretty much me 3 months ago…but at my core I’m too much of an optimist on America and Americans to throw in the towel. 

Its the singular thing I’ve respected most about Warren Buffett and the great Peter Lynch; they always want to invest in America…because no country is better than America…and America always makes a comeback. Betting against America has been a losing proposition 100% of the time. 

And Buffett and Lynch also know that bear markets give way to new, and far more powerful, bull markets. 

From the S&P 500 to Nasdaq to Russell 2000 to the semiconductors these leaders just plummeted 20–50% + and did so in short order.

Many stocks are down 50–60–70%, (again, including Cathie Woods ARKK and its 77%, 15 month meltdown). BTW, Cathie Wood has never been more bullish.

Woods and her team of investing rain men/women just put out a research paper stating “advancements in AI will soon produce annual GDP growth of up to 50%/year”. 

As you can imagine, the pushback against Wood on this “out there” claim has been fierce. But man oh man, is Woods ever smart. No way am I betting against Cathie Wood, just as I wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk. Woods largest and most successful holding for years has been Tesla (although I did buy it cheaper than Wood).

Here’s the bottom line truth; today, there are so many bears that a true contrarian must be bullish. It’s not much more complicated than that. 

Again, I’m not calling a bottom. But I am saying that investment opportunities abound and that yes, most stocks have already bottomed. 

This wall of worry is about to be climbed.

VRA Bottom Line: I believe we will look back and see this bear market for what it is…a reset in both the economy and the markets…and that the best of America (and a newly red-pilled world), lay directly in front of us.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Blood in the Streets, AKA Investor Panic, is A Buy Signal to Contrarians. WAR, W's Freudian Slip of Freudian Slips.

Good Thursday morning all. Multiple bases to cover this AM. Yesterdays disastrous trading (on the backs of Target/Walmart/Wall Street waking up to the fact that inflation is at least as high as it was some 40 years ago), had the feeling of a weight so heavy that we couldn’t even have a single mini-rally…we just kept sinking and sinking. The losses in our major indexes (-3.5% to -4.7%) negated much of the positive action from last Friday and this Tuesday and NYSE 92% downside volume of yesterday negated Tuesdays 92% upside volume. 

If bear market bottoms are ugly (they are), then yesterdays action absolutely confirms it…assuming we have in fact seen the lows. 

Still, we did hold our lows from last Thursday…when the Fear & Greed Index hit 6 and multiple technical readings took each broad market index to “extreme oversold on steroids”…and in addition the TRIN (Arms Index) hit a reading of 2.86, a clear sign of panic selling, AKA blood in the streets. Again, as contrarians, we like the TRIN at 2.86. Anything above 2 is both rare and panicky. 

Note: the levels of doom and gloom are close to as high as I can remember. Saw at least 10 articles that a recession is “certain” and that the move lower in the market “is just getting started”. 
Folks, these are the articles that we see at market bottoms…not at market tops…the MSM is rarely if ever right about their doom and gloom calls. 

In addition, Ed Hyman, our favorite economist and best on Wall Street for 50 years, is still saying “no recession in the US this year”. 

AAII — More Signs of Blood in the Street

Last nights AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came back with bulls at 26 and bears at 50. The 4 week moving average of bears is now at its highest levels since the financial crisis lows. Remember, just 3 weeks ago the AAII hit 15% bulls…a level that is not only one of the worst ever (I’ve voted in this survey since 1990) but typically marks near term lows. 
Panicky.

Fear & Greed Index

Last Thursdays reading of 6% bulls in the Fear & Greed Index has hardly improved…now at a reading of 9. Extreme Fear….Panicky

VRA Bottom Line: It’s days like this that are important in determining whether or not the final lows are in place. If the markets can overcome this bad news…and Targets news is a shock to Wall Street analysts (not exactly sure why after Walmart from yesterday)…and still find a way to rally higher, it will send chills down the backs of those short the market and/or heavy in cash. It’s not the news that matters most, it’s the markets reaction to that news.

This is why we own our VRA 10 Baggers. Companies with excellent mgt teams, solid finances and bright futures (in the right sectors) that must be bought during market insanity. 

You can find my focus stocks right here.

And, I still think the lows are in….at least for most stocks.

Here’s todays VRA Vid Cast: 

https://rumble.com/v15bbod-vra-midday-stock-market-commentary-may-19-2022.html

Wayne Allyn Root

Our great friend WAR has been saying, like us for close to 2 years and the start of the plandemic, that Team Biden (O’Biden, WEF-communists) are practicing “intentional destruction”. 
This is WAR’s GETTR post from yesterday….Wayne nails it. When will our R elected officials wake up??

Must watch clip. George W Bush just accidentally ripped his mask off in front of the whole world. Freud would like you all to know this is the greatest example of a Freudian Slip that’s happened in our lifetime. The unconscious is always letting you know what needs the light. 

Evil incarnate…that’s who this man is. As you watch the clip, realize that every point he makes is about the US, rather than Russia. Political prisoners (1/6), rigged elections (2020) and the brutal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine (as Bush says correctly, Iraq). 

Video: https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1527092111195226114?s=12&t=oX-GTLke9DlYfxDOdIA-SA

 

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Red-Pilled and Free; America's Future. Bear Market Action. Next Up, This Market Needs Capitulation.

Good Thursday morning all. 

Quick note: we’re getting an increasing number of emails alerting us to the fact that you aren’t getting our VRA Letters and VRA Podcast Alerts. You know the drill; censorship comes in many forms. As always, please check your spam folder. Obviously, alert us. And worst case, you can always find our work in your VRA Members Site (but emails are ideal). 

At least 10 different communication platforms and payment systems….not to mention JP Morgan Chase, which closed all of our corporate AND personal accounts without answering the question “why”?….have banned the VRA (and/or me personally) over the years. And its picked up speed over the last couple of years (Twitter on Monday). 

Permanently Suspended from Twitter

On the same day that Musk agrees to buy Twitter, I was banned from the platform (for the tweet below).
Like many had commented over the last 2years, I’m only surprised it didn’t happen sooner…moderating my (free) speech was never going to happen, on Twitter or any other social media platform, or in my VRA Letters.
The attacks against us here at the VRA have been ramping for some time now.

As to this particular tweet, it’s exactly what I’ve been saying since the jabs were released. They are brutally dangerous and giving them to kids is nothing short of criminal levels of child abuse. 
I believe the facts are on my side. The first amendment is too. 

You can follow me on Truth Social and GETTR @ KipHerriage

We should expect that it will only get worse. 

But…and if you’ve known me for any period of time you already know what comes next…there is a zero percent chance that I will ever self censor what I write and/or what I say. Just ain’t gonna happen. 

My greatest disappointment over the plandemic has been the number of Americans that have bent the knee to the State. Our founding fathers are rolling over in their graves. 

I’ve come to the sad realization that we could go the way of China tomorrow (or Canada) and the majority of Americans would simply shrug their shoulders. Meek, cowered and speaking in whispered voices so not to offend “anyone”, or God forbid, face the wrath of our overlords…that’s the average American today. 

But frankly it wasn’t all that much different during the founding of this great country. The majority feared the redcoats…wished to remain loyal to the king…but thanks to a few brave legends, America was born. 

Know this; America IS getting red-pilled. IMO, within the next few years a singular leader will rise. We may already know his/her name (Trump, DeSantis, Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Green) or we may not. But, it will take a single person that closes the deal against these communists…because make no mistake, they are absolutely going for the jugular. The plandemic was just the warm up act, and most Americans failed miserably. 

This person will lead America back to greatness. On a scale of 1–10, I go to 11 on this one. 

That’s the future we must all keep fighting for, today. 

As most reading this already know….because you were born red-pilled…it’s an amazing experience to witness what happens when you have this dialogue with friends, and even strangers. 90% are in complete agreement and once you start speaking truths of freedom and America First they open up like a can of worms….like it’s been bottled up for so long they’re about to bust! 

My experience, from speaking on stages around the world and meeting these amazing people globally, is that everyone is starving for freedom and that they recognize the truth when they see it and when they hear it. Once we start the dialogue, just sit back and watch the magic of free speech kick in. It’s not more complicated than that. And BTW, once we start that dialogue…if you happen to be speaking to a communist…you’ll find that they whither like an old grape. Because, deep down, the communist knows that they represent weakness…they represent losing. They will literally put their heads down and walk away. 

Because freedom, and the free speech that derives from it, can never be stopped.

VRA Market Update

The last two trading session were not pretty, but wow are we ever hitting heavily to extreme oversold levels on our VRA Momentum Oscillators.

Textbook bear market action, as the semis, nasdaq and Russell 2000 each broke their 2/24 lows, leaving just the S&P 500 and Dow Jones above their 2/24 “first shots fired” lows. S&P 500 is 61 points above its 2/24 lows with the DJ just 17 points above its 2/24 lows.

What we need is capitulation. We need a sharply lower open that puts the fear of God into investors and takes the put/call ratio up to 1.5. With our markets fighting the Fed and fighting aggressive (bear market) short sellers, we remain in risk-off mode.

Today we got this shocker from the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. Bulls are down to 16.4% with bears up to a massive 59.4%, the largest number of bears since March 2009.

3/09 marked THE lows of the financial crisis….I know…I called those lows within 60 seconds and we crushed the market over the next 6 months with gains of several hundred percent. 

Seeing this report makes it even harder to be ultra bearish. As a reminder, when bulls drop below 20% (its only happened 10 times), the markets have been up 100% of the time over the next 6–12 months, with gains of 13% and 23% (on average). One key point; the results aren’t nearly as bullish over the short term (when bulls break 20%)…it’s roughly a 50/50 proposition over the next 1–2–3 months. But, from 3 month on the odds are in the bulls favor. Then, the odds are REALLY in the favor or bulls over the next 6–12 months.

VRA Bottom Line; we are either at or nearing extreme oversold levels of our VRA Momentum Oscillators, a level that has served as a reversal signal for more than a year. Bear market rallies are powerful…even more powerful than bull market rallies. However, once this rally tires, it will likely be met with selling pressure on the back end, at least until we get a true capitulation event. 

Ideally, I would like to see a market bottom as Apple and Amazon announce earnings on today after the close. We want capitulation on those moves lower (which I expect).

Key point: we need capitulation. Markets like this do not bottom without them…in my experience.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: Improvement Under the Hood. 4 VRA Horsemen. Tax Day, Mask Day.

Good Thursday morning all. As Tyler covered in detail on yesterdays VRA Investing Podcast (sign up for alerts @ vrainsider.com/podcast), something interesting could be brewing to restore our (short term) faith in the markets. Even as Nasdaq (-1.2%), on the back of the Netflix implosion was hit yesterday the internals actually showed improvement. Pretty remarkable that Nasdaq advance/decline was positive while nasdaq also put up its first +100 new 52 week highs since January. Hey, its a start. And again, with NFLX getting smashed 36% (-$125/sh), yesterday could have been especially ugly. 

In addition, our 4 VRA Horsemen (Housing, Trannies, Semis and Banks) once again put up gains on the day. Folks, as long as these groups hold their 2/24 to 3/14 lows, we’re looking at a pattern of higher lows to keep building on. The big negative remains the fact that each broad market index remains below its 200 dma, although the S&P 500 is right on the line. Remember, we need to see 7 straight days above the 200 dma before we can have confidence that the 200 day has a solid chance of holding. 

Markets are higher this morning. DJ +250 and Nasdaq +150.

Last nights AAII Sentiment Survey came in with bulls up 3 to 18.9% and bears -5 to 43.9%. History tells us that when AAII bulls drop below 20% its a remarkably great time to buy stocks, assuming your window is at least 6 months out. Going back to the origins of this survey (1986), when bulls drop below 20% you would have made money in the S&P 500 100% of the time over the following 6–12 months. It’s only happened 9 times, prior to now, with an average gain over the next 6 months of 13% and an average gain over the next year of more than 20%. High probability repeating pattern.

As the broad markets have rallied, precious metals and miners have been soft. The pattern of hitting 90% OB on stochastics and pausing…we’ve seen this pattern repeat everywhere over the last year +…has briefly struck metals/miners as well. Importantly, these pauses are short-lived. Below, in the chart of GDX (miner ETF) we see it clearly; from the birth of the current breakout (early February) GDX has seen support right at 100% of the time at the 21 ema (purple line), with dips through the 21 ema lasting no more than a day. This morning GDX is trading down 1%, roughy .50/share above the 21 ema.

Use this pause as a buying opportunity in the miners. Our positions in VRA 10 Baggers have held up like the beasts they’ve been all year (learn more at VRAInsider.com). 

Tax Day, Mask Day

So this week, they matched up tax day in the US with “masks-be-gone” day…we’ll take it I guess, but that’s still a 99:1 losing proposition. Taxes are theft and cloth masks were always a joke. 

Next up…and this should be happening now….all jab mandates MUST be removed. Then, we must re-hire everyone that was fired for not bending the knee for legitimate medical or religious exemptions…for any reason whatsoever…we simply did not want to be forcibly injected with experimental poisons over a flu that 99.9% recover from. After everyone is re-hired, pay them for their damages and lost wages. Then, every employee that was forced to take these jabs should be compensated “handsomely”. 

Where might all this money come from? Big pharma can kick off the contributions. And, if we can send 100’s of billions of dollars each year to foreign countries, we can certainly afford to take care of our own. 

I am so ready to be done with CV insanity. We all are. But, our work is just beginning. Nuremberg-like trials must take place. Those guilty of these criminal levels of medical malpractice must pay the price. Doctors that backed, endorsed and prescribed these jabs must pay with their licenses. First, do no harm.

Frauds like Fauci, Gates, Imperial College, Birx, Wallensky…obviously the criminals in HHS, CDC, NIH and big pharma must face public nazi-like trials so this evil never ever happens again. 

For me, this is what the midterms are all about. Every R that’s running should have Nuremberg 2 at the top of their platform. That and impeaching Biden and investigating/prosecuting everyone that helped rig the 2020 election. Facebook/Zuckerberg and Twitter near the top of that list (another reason we’re so interested in Musk gaining access to the State secrets inside of Twitter).

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: AAII Sentiment Survey Shocker. Excellent Market Action, Internals. The Breakout in Miners Continues.

Good Thursday morning all. Don’t Forget: The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Two big developments: last night the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at just 15.8% bulls, one of the 5–6 lowest readings on record. I’ve voted in this survey since the late 1980’s and yes, I voted bearish for this weeks survey. Sentiment ultimately catches up with all of us. Folks, an important market low is either just around the corner or is already here. 

Then one hour ago, Elon Musk made an offer to buy Twitter for $54.20 in cash, stating that he intends to take the company private. As I wrote to our member’s earlier this week, I expected Musk to make a play for the company, just not this fast. And taking Twitter private is a genius move. But, his $54.20 offer will not get the job done. Musk will likely be forced to raise his buyout price. 

A bidding war wouldn’t surprise me…I half expect it. The elite ruling class/deep state will not like the idea of the planets de facto town square falling into Musks’ hands and once again welcoming free speech. If someone else makes an offer for Twitter, know this; that person/company will not be a friend to democratic institutions…they will be connected to the deep state.

BTW, this creates massive opportunities for VRA 10 Bagger Trump Media (DWAC). One, the valuations for this sector will increase sharply and two, if Twitter is going private, guess who that leaves as the best game in town among public social media co’s? This is big time bullish news for DWAC…absolutely own this stock here. 

AAII coming in last night with bulls down 9% to just 15.8% and bears up 7% to 48.4%. As many are pointing out this AM, these bullish readings did not even get this low during the financial crisis, nor during the depths of CV insanity. 15.8% bulls is a shocker. 

What does it mean? Sentiment Trader is out with this chart (below), showing what happened in the S&P 500 when readings dropped below 19% bulls. The next 1 week to 1 month is spotty to bearish, but then the tide turns. From 3 months to 1 year later the markets are consistently and solidly higher, in close to 100% of the cases. 1 year later the average gain is 24%, with the S&P 500 higher 100% of the time.

We’ve yet to see these kinds of extreme sentiment readings in the other sentiment surveys that we track, but they are certainly trending in that ‘heavily bearish” direction. Again, its not possible for us to be overtly bearish with AAII readings like this.

Yesterdays trading was “impressive” all around. The markets finished at the highs of the day, with internals that were garlic strong. A follow through day today is important.

The Breakout Continues!

Precious metals, and especially the miners, look to be building a head of steam. This is what the beginning of a powerful breakout looks and feels like. If you’re a bit older like me you might remember the bull market from 2003 to 2011 for this group. Based on my memories and the data we’ve been sharing here in these pages, I believe this is equivalent to 2004. If I’m right, every pullback must be bought…and don’t even consider taking profits.

GDX hit another fresh 18 month high yesterday, as the miners continue to significantly outperform both gold and silver. Bullish tell. Next up, if this group follows historical trading norms, both gold and silver should soon get legs (they follow the miners). 

On a technical note; gold, silver and miners (GDX/NUGT) have yet to hit overbought levels on the VRA System and each of our VRA buy rec’s in this group remain a buy. Definitely keep buying.

Finally, and I’m still stumped by this, the trading volumes for this group remain on the low side. With 2 hours to go, just 15 million shares have traded in GDX. This will change at some point…how does it not? And when it does, I expect to see a parabolic move higher.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

Please join us each day after the market closes for our Daily VRA Investing Podcast!
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And check Out Our Latest (now daily podcast!) Videos on Rumble