VRA Investment Update: Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

Good Thursday morning all. We just put out a VRA Alert to our member’s that we wanted to share here.

Is The Gold, Silver and Miner Massive Bull Market of 2003–2011 About to Repeat?

To understand why gold/silver may double over the next 3–5 yrs, with the miners jumping 300% to 500% in price, you must first understand the Feds history of major policy mistakes. Top of that list are their 17 straight rate hikes from ‘04-‘06, leading directly to the crash in housing, then the markets and economy and golds move from $375/oz to $1923/oz by 2011. Points 1,3 & 4 in the chart below represent Fed rate hike cycles (04 & 16) and the QE that followed (09 & 20) and of course the massive move higher in gold, silver and miners. 

The next rate hike cycle is underway now….followed almost certainly by the next series of Fed policy mistakes. It’s a repeating pattern that has become high probability.

And this chart tells the tale. GDX to S&P 500 relative strength chart (back to 2011) gives you an idea of just how cheap the miners are to the broad markets, on a relative strength basis. Abysmally weak. Folks, the miners would have to rally for “years” just to fill this gap. We made the same case for energy stocks last year…and they’re seeing their sharp moves higher…but today, its the miners that are trading at historically low levels. And importantly, all of this is taking place while at the same time investors barely own the miners, with less than 3% of global portfolios having a position. This is the PERFECT contrarian buy signal, for a group that is ready to soar (and I haven’t even mentioned the global debt and fiat currency pictures). Now, imagine what this group might do should gold hit our target of $3500 and silver $60. Generational wealth creation.

We see it in this important chart as well; the 1 year chart of the relative strength of miners to gold. Beginning last October the miners began to outperform gold, but that outperformance really began to kick in in late January with miners going near parabolic compared to the underlying commodity. This is a classic tell. Investors want to be aggressively long this group when the miners are leading.

We like everything about precious metals and miners, both fundamentally and technically;

- The world has more debt and fiat currency in circulation than ever, with a system run (completely) by the financial engineering of global central banks (led by J Powell and US Fed). What could go wrong…

- Inflation is at 40 year highs and based on multiple important indicators/inputs (oil, food prices, wages, etc) the Fed is fighting a battle that it has most typically won by putting the economy into a recession, hence all of the inverted yield curves that started popping up over the last 2 weeks. Again, inflation is always “currency inflation”…aka money printing…and protection against inflation has been one of the primary reasons to own PM’s and miners, from the birth of fiat currency. It is already beginning to appear that the Fed is planning, on the back end, for more QE. 

- Fundamentally, this is an eerily similar set-up to 2004–2006, when the Fed was hiking rates 17 straight times, which sent PM’s and Miners (and stocks, btw) into major bull markets, followed by the housing/financial crash and launch of QE in 2009, which sent this group parabolic. To be clear, this set-up is bullish both for PM’s/miners and stocks. 

- PM’s and miners love rate hike cycles (as we’ve been covering quite a bit of late). The biggest moves in this group (since 2003) have come in this exact environment and this exact timing. 

- Multiple Golden Cross buy signals over the last day to month in gold, silver and GDX (both 50/200 and 100/200). High probability buy signals. 

- The miners (GDX) have been outperforming gold since October, with near parabolic outperformance over the last month. When the miners are beating gold on a relative strength basis, it’s a classic “tell” that this group should be owned aggressively. And the leverage is always in the miners. 

And this chart of GDX is the final tell:

GDX is above every moving average, with what I call a “catapult” chart setup. Following the “first shots fired” top and recovery move higher, should GDX break $40.26 (52 week high) we can expect the next parabolic move higher, first targeting $44/45 and then $50. GDX had a 50/200 dma golden cross on 3/11 and a 100/200dma golden cross yesterday. Volume is returning but should now begin to ramp. GDX is a buy on each of our VRA Momentum Oscillators with lots of room to run before hitting overbought, with near perfect trend line support in RSI and MFI. We should also get a fresh MACD buy signal within 2 days.

We are targeting massive gains from this group in both our trading positions and our VRA 10 Baggers. To learn more join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: VRA Portfolio +17.6% in 2022. Russia-Ukraine Bull Market. Hard Truths.

Good Thursday morning all. As we start trading today the VRA Portfolio is up 17.6% in 2022. That compares to losses of 10-14% in our broad markets. Folks, this feels like on of those years for our stocks. I remember this feeling, similar to the years we’ve put up 100-200% + net gains. 

We beat the market again last year, making 16/19 years, with 430% in net profits (on all closed positions), while leaving our core positions and VRA 10 Baggers intact. Now, they’re starting to move. 

To check out all of our picks join us for two free weeks at VRAinsider.com

Russia-Ukraine and VRA Market Update

There’s no need for me to keep belaboring the point. Russia-Ukraine will drag out...Wag The Dogs have a schedule to keep...but Putin has no interest in taking all of Ukraine. 

The markets have known this from "first shots fired", which helps to explain the huge move higher from last Thursday.

So, what was Wednesdays big sell off? That was the shake-out that gave insiders the ability to get in (which explains why the internals held up so well).

Think of it this way. IF I am right, this is like the 2/23/20 lows of CV insanity. Those served as THE lows. We won't breach the lows of last Thursday mornings open…..that was the market bottom. 

This means that sell-offs going forward...certainly the lower opens....should be used as buying opportunities. That’s how we’ve been playing it…that’s how we’ll keep playing it, unless something changes (should last Thursdays lows taken out).

Volatility will remain...but the next big move should be back to the 200 dma for our broad market indexes. 

As of now, here's where each major index sits below its 200 dma:

S&P 500: 1.5%

DJ: 3%

nasdaq: 6.4%

R2K: 6.5%

This market wants to keep going higher. The 200 dma should now act as a magnet for our broad markets. Once back to those levels, the next set of actions will be MOST important to watch. 

We also had solid internals yesterday. 2:1 A/D and 3:1 + on volume. NYSE up-volume volume was 83%, making it the 6th day already in 2022 with 80% up-volume. Should we get another 80% day in NYSE volume it will serve as a rather massive technical buy signal. 

And small caps leading the way...again....along with semis, which made a very interesting reversal and closed up a big 3.3%.

Hard Truths About Dems and Russia-Ukraine. Communists Helping Communists. 

An Inconvenient Question For The “We Are All Ukraine Crowd"



Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: We Are Buyers. Ted Parsons, From the Grave. Interview with WAR. BTC & Taiwan. Russia Deja-Vu.

Good Friday morning all. 

While everyone was panicking yesterday morning, we were buyers.

We never forget the people in our lives that made the biggest impressions. Professionally, that’s my first mentor Ted Parsons (RIP Ted). Ted’s mentor worked on Wall Street during the crash and Great Depression…even as a clueless 23 year old rookie broker, I understood the significance of that...and its still rare when a day goes by that I don’t hear his voice in my head.

It was Ted that taught me “on first shots fired, sell your hedges and buy stocks”, which was our exact war game plan going into Russia-Ukraine.  

Nasdaq, from yesterdays lows, has now rallied close to 1000 points in just 24 hours. We have 6 positions in the VRA Portfolio that are up between 10% to 22%, over this time frame, plus we steered clear of buying anything tied to a hedge (energy, precious metals, miners, shorts). In Parabolic Options yesterday we booked 230% profits in GDX (gold miner ETF) calls.

Ted, even from the grave, you’re still crushing it.

Next Up: Interview with WAR

I was on The Wayne Root Show last night with our great friend WAR. Wayne follows our work closely here. In addition to being a great friend of almost 20 years, he’s also been a VRA Member for nearly that long. Last night we covered what happens next; Russia takes Ukraine entirely…why wouldn’t Putin conquer Ukraine after Bidens welcome mat (again) and that embarrassing presser from yesterday. Following Ukraine, Wayne and I fully expect China will take Taiwan. And we got into what happens next in the markets and US economy. 

LINK: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/kip-herriage-live-on-war-now-with-wayne-allyn-root-22422?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

Bitcoin, Watch Closely for Signs of China/Taiwan

We covered this chart and price action of Bitcoin as well, with respect to China taking Taiwan. You’ve heard me get into this on our VRA Podcasts. There is no better or faster method for the elite insiders to quickly move massive amounts of liquid wealth out of a country. Does this help to explain these huge moves in BTC?

1) In the chart below we see a 409% move higher in BTC, just before and in the period immediately following the Las Vegas massacre, as Saudi princes were abducted, tortured and their immense wealth pursued by the Saudi king.  

2) The next major geopolitical event…CV insanity…saw BTC soar 1540%. No, I cannot explain this…I only see direct evidence that BTC was almost certainly used to move huge amounts of money. 

3) And Afghanistan. Beginning a few weeks before the US announced they would be abandoning the country, BTC began to zoom higher, rising some 130% by that November. 



We have no direct evidence that BTC soared during these 3 major events, due to the wealthy transferring their money. But, these moves did occur. 

And now, following the invasion of Ukraine…with it becoming increasingly likely that China will take Taiwan, BTC is once again on the move….jumping from $34,300 yesterday to $39,200 this AM.  

Are wealthy Taiwanese using BTC to quickly move their money of local banks? Would you? 

Watching and listening closely…..

Russia-Russia-Russia (RSX and RUSL) 

For those that were with the VRA in 2014 you may remember our trades in RUSL (2 x Russia ETF). Between RUSL and RUSL calls we booked net profits of more than 500% in about 3-4 days. 

This was when Russia took Crimea. 

I'm having deja-vu. 

Below is the chart of RSX, the un-leveraged Russia ETF. Its approaching the same oversold conditions from the March 2020 CV insanity lows. 
We are working on potential strategies now, but when you check out RUSL you'll see that its fallen from $38 in October of last year to below $7 yesterday. 

Credible reports out of Europe; the EU has already told its allies that it will NOT go along with kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system...that would present some pretty frightening downside for the global financial system. In my mind, this was a worst case scenario that WAS possible. Biden, in his joke of a presser, confirmed this as well. 

Frankly, Russia will pay a steep price for their actions, but with a debt to GDP of less than .30 (the US is 1.3), and massive commodity assets, Russia will come out of this. And they will have sent a message to the world that additional NATO forces on their doorstep is an error in the making. 

BTW, what kind of dirt do you think Putin has on the Biden Crime Family? The leverage here is with Russia...that's my read.  

Just introducing you to the idea now but we see some interesting possibilities in RSX and/or RUSL. 

Here in the US we remain optimistic

The economy remains strong…corporate earnings continue to grow…and because of the nature of this structural bull market, it’s been my view that the two things the elite need to keep their constituency in line…a strong economy and stock market…will continue to hold up. 

This remains my view today. We are witnessing a market correction…one that is (as of today) taking each broad market index into "extreme oversold levels" on some of our VRA momentum oscillators (stochastics). 

And importantly...

- We know from investor sentiment, like the AAII survey, which hit 19% bulls last week (it may be 15% this week), that this is the time to be a “buyer”…not a “seller”. 

- We know that the markets actually “rise” on early rate hikes…not “decline”. 

- We know that we have a wall of worry that is now solidly “fearful”. 

Our focus is on the markets and VRA Portfolio positioning, but I can’t help but find these times so beneath what the great people of this country deserve. 

Yesterdays Biden presser was embarrassingly awful, even for him. Freedom, my ass. 



Will the left ultimately view Putin as they view George W Bush today, with love and affection? 




Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: The Global Fascism of Psychopathic Megalomaniacs. Back Up The Truck. Gold and Miners Breaking Out.

Even as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…these folks no longer have an excuse. Fascism is here, not just in Canada, but in the US as well.

Even in Texas and Florida, workers by the millions have been forced to take experimental jabs…over an illness with a 99.8% recovery rate…or face losing their jobs. Many have said “no…I’m not bending the knee”…and were then terminated. And its happening in numbers 10 x this in other states. I hear from people like this day after day after day…including from VRAMembers…heartbreaking emails, texts and calls. To add insult to injury, families and friends are being split up, divided, at one anothers throats…all over the relative nothingness that is rona. I laugh these days when someone “ats me” with “but Kip, millions have died…”. 

Uh-huh….I believe that like I believe Biden got 81 million votes. Died “with/from rona” might be the worst kept secret about CV insanity. As the CDC has admitted, roughly 6% of these deaths came solely from CV. Brutal lies…that can only originate from psychopathic megalomaniacs. 

And our kids…for me, this is the toughest part of the plandemic to cover, research and talk about. A generation of kids lives completely upended. For many, destroyed. Their entire lives, they will never forget the controls, the jabs, the evilness of masking. It’s engrained in their DNA. The hoax of climate change, which placed the very real fear into an entire generation that they might not live to be 20, 30 or 40, as all of earths inhabitants could go the way of the dinosaur, was evil enough. But now, our babies have to endure the satan-like depravity of CV insanity.

Of course, none of this is just a mistake or a horrible set of decisions from our WEF leaders. It’s all purposeful. Evil incarnate. 

If these events don’t fit the definition of “fascism on earth”, what would? 

I covered all of this, plus the markets of course, in our VRA Podcast on Wednesday. For those that may be new to this conversation, I start at the beginning…at least the beginning of the last 20 years, the worst 20 year stretch in American history…with the events of 9/11. Because everything happening today is connected to 9/11. I’ll repeat what I’ve said for more than 15 years, in these pages and on stages around the world; the US will likely never heal until the truth of 9/11 is known. Frankly, the world won’t heal. When psychopathic megalomaniacs are allowed to get away with something this evil, why would they stop there? They would not…and they have not. 

Here’s 30 minutes of me connecting the dots…this is my life’s work…and my hope is that CV insanity has begun to wake enough good people up in time to stop what’s coming. It may already be too late. And hey, I cover the markets too…there’s something for everyone, even if you’re not into conspiracy facts.

VRA Podcast Link: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-kip-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-feb-15-2022?si=7d98d69c669d45728036fec548815aeb&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

VRA Market Update

Important things are happening inside of this market. First, a pretty remarkable comeback yesterday…excellent afternoon trading/smart money hour…featuring a DJ that rallied 250 points off of its lows and nasdaq an even more impressive 200 point rally off of its lows. It was the internals that caught our eye…again. Even when the markets had sharp losses, NYSE and Nasdaq A/D and up/down volume were either positive or just slightly negative. Again, what we see as a significant pattern change under the hood continues. 

Back Up The Truck

Folks, there’s really only thing to focus on this AM, broad market wise…the latest sentiment readings from the weekly AAII Survey.
I’ve voted in this survey for approx 30 years now and it’s very rare to see bullish readings below 20. This weeks came in at just 19.2% bulls and 43.2% bears.

SentimenTrader has the analytics for us on AAII. There have been just 31 weeks with less than 20% bulls. In 29/31 cases, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 3 months with avg gains of 5.55%. 
6 months later the avg gain was 12.24%.1 year later the avg gain was 19.65% and the markets were higher 94% of the time.

VRA Bottom Line: with AAII bulls at just 19% (along with the “many” bull market and contrarian themes we cover often here), it is an impossibility for us to be bearish here. This is…and I say this with confidence…a back up the truck moment, assuming you are investing for at minimum the next 6–12 months. The data bears this out. 

With 9/12 VRA Investing System screens now bullish, make sure you join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com to view the VRA Portfolio and ensure you are positioned correctly.

Gold and Miners Breaking Out

Gold hitting $1899 this AM, just $23/oz shy of a 52 week high. Our newer VRA Members will want to view our work of the last week (Gold and miners love rate hikes).

Here, we see GDX has been outperforming gold since October, and its picking up speed. Big buy signal for industry pros.

Here, we see gold is outperforming BTC, an event we began telling you would take place last November.

And gold is even outperforming oil. Long and strong gold and miners…multi-year bull market move higher from here.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: CPI at 40 Year High. Thanks Again Biden. Textbook Bottom and Bear Trap. Gold and Miners Love Rising Rate Cycles

Good Thursday morning all. The much awaited CPI data is out and its a hot number, with inflation hitting a 40 year high as the CPI posts a 7.5% annual gain in January. Honestly, don’t most of us look at this number and say “what do you mean it only rose 7.5% year over year…based on what I’m paying for stuff it feels much more like annual inflation of 20% +.”

Lets see, what’s changed over the last year? Thats right, we got a new president…the basement dweller with “81 million votes”. Not sure about you but I cannot find a single person that will admit to voting for Biden. 

The markets were flat in advance of the CPI data but immediately went south, with DJ now -225 and Nasdaq down a bigger 260 (-1.8%). 

In the bigger picture, this market has been on an absolute bull run, following what looks to this market watcher to have been a perfectly set “bear trap”, as I explained in our VRA Podcast yesterday. 

The 1/24 market bottom and the corresponding move higher has been “textbook”, so far. 

First, we had the 1/24 capitulation…classically completed on a sharply lower Monday open, just as the average Nasdaq stock had already collapsed by more than 50%.

Second, tech…led by the semis…have led the way higher. Nvidia (NVDA), which we highlighted in yesterdays VRA Update, has been a nonstop freight train higher…up a big 6.5% yesterday…and +22% from those 1/24 capitulation lows. 

Third, our VRA Investing System continues to pick up “significant pattern changes”, both in market internals and key leadership action, as the smart money hours are flipping back to bullish as well. Yesterdays internals were the best readings of 2022, with 80–85% up volume (NYSE, Nasdaq)…6:1 for Nasdaq…and another big day for advance declines. Back to back, fantastic days.

VRA Bottom Line: The markets have zoomed higher from the 1/24 lows. In just 2 weeks, a 2300 point move higher in the DJ (+7.5%) and a near 1400 point move higher in Nasdaq (+10.6%) and a BIG 16% move higher in the Semis (SMH)…and we remain buyers of dips, in our VRA Portfolio Positions. 

We’re still in the most seasonally bullish time of the year, equity inflows and share buybacks are piling in and the biggie; we’re still just entering year 3 of a new bull market, driven by (still) solid corporate earnings and record amounts of global liquidity. As we’ve said now for 18 months plus, this is a structural bull market, with the Trump Economic Miracle (still) serving as its springboard and corporate financial engineering emerging as a dark horse element for sharply higher prices. 

Plus one of mine and Tyler’s favorites; we told you several months ago that Biden was already a lame duck president…that’s now being recognized as fact…and the markets love DC gridlock as much as just about anything. They also love (early) rate hikes…but that looks like a stat that many market watchers have (oddly) yet to figure out. I think they’ll get there…”

Gold and the Miners LOVE Rate Hike Cycles 

Check out this 20 year chart of gold below, marked by points 1–6.

Point 1 is where I first recommended gold and silver, in my 2nd ever VRA Update in 2003. Gold was $375/oz….silver was $4.75/oz. 

What followed was the rising rate cycle of 2004–2006 (17 straight rate hikes) when gold that more than doubled in price. 

Point 5 was the next rate hike cycle (2016) as the Fed jacked rates higher 8 times in Trumps first 2 years. Again, gold doubled in price.

They REALLY love rising rate cycles. 

Finally, here’s golds 1 year chart, featuring a pennant formation (even the flagpole is in place). I believe a big breakout is nearing.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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