VRA Investment Update: AAII Sentiment Survey Shocker. Excellent Market Action, Internals. The Breakout in Miners Continues.

Good Thursday morning all. Don’t Forget: The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Two big developments: last night the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at just 15.8% bulls, one of the 5–6 lowest readings on record. I’ve voted in this survey since the late 1980’s and yes, I voted bearish for this weeks survey. Sentiment ultimately catches up with all of us. Folks, an important market low is either just around the corner or is already here. 

Then one hour ago, Elon Musk made an offer to buy Twitter for $54.20 in cash, stating that he intends to take the company private. As I wrote to our member’s earlier this week, I expected Musk to make a play for the company, just not this fast. And taking Twitter private is a genius move. But, his $54.20 offer will not get the job done. Musk will likely be forced to raise his buyout price. 

A bidding war wouldn’t surprise me…I half expect it. The elite ruling class/deep state will not like the idea of the planets de facto town square falling into Musks’ hands and once again welcoming free speech. If someone else makes an offer for Twitter, know this; that person/company will not be a friend to democratic institutions…they will be connected to the deep state.

BTW, this creates massive opportunities for VRA 10 Bagger Trump Media (DWAC). One, the valuations for this sector will increase sharply and two, if Twitter is going private, guess who that leaves as the best game in town among public social media co’s? This is big time bullish news for DWAC…absolutely own this stock here. 

AAII coming in last night with bulls down 9% to just 15.8% and bears up 7% to 48.4%. As many are pointing out this AM, these bullish readings did not even get this low during the financial crisis, nor during the depths of CV insanity. 15.8% bulls is a shocker. 

What does it mean? Sentiment Trader is out with this chart (below), showing what happened in the S&P 500 when readings dropped below 19% bulls. The next 1 week to 1 month is spotty to bearish, but then the tide turns. From 3 months to 1 year later the markets are consistently and solidly higher, in close to 100% of the cases. 1 year later the average gain is 24%, with the S&P 500 higher 100% of the time.

We’ve yet to see these kinds of extreme sentiment readings in the other sentiment surveys that we track, but they are certainly trending in that ‘heavily bearish” direction. Again, its not possible for us to be overtly bearish with AAII readings like this.

Yesterdays trading was “impressive” all around. The markets finished at the highs of the day, with internals that were garlic strong. A follow through day today is important.

The Breakout Continues!

Precious metals, and especially the miners, look to be building a head of steam. This is what the beginning of a powerful breakout looks and feels like. If you’re a bit older like me you might remember the bull market from 2003 to 2011 for this group. Based on my memories and the data we’ve been sharing here in these pages, I believe this is equivalent to 2004. If I’m right, every pullback must be bought…and don’t even consider taking profits.

GDX hit another fresh 18 month high yesterday, as the miners continue to significantly outperform both gold and silver. Bullish tell. Next up, if this group follows historical trading norms, both gold and silver should soon get legs (they follow the miners). 

On a technical note; gold, silver and miners (GDX/NUGT) have yet to hit overbought levels on the VRA System and each of our VRA buy rec’s in this group remain a buy. Definitely keep buying.

Finally, and I’m still stumped by this, the trading volumes for this group remain on the low side. With 2 hours to go, just 15 million shares have traded in GDX. This will change at some point…how does it not? And when it does, I expect to see a parabolic move higher.

Until next time, thanks again for reading….

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: VRA Portfolio +17.6% in 2022. Russia-Ukraine Bull Market. Hard Truths.

Good Thursday morning all. As we start trading today the VRA Portfolio is up 17.6% in 2022. That compares to losses of 10-14% in our broad markets. Folks, this feels like on of those years for our stocks. I remember this feeling, similar to the years we’ve put up 100-200% + net gains. 

We beat the market again last year, making 16/19 years, with 430% in net profits (on all closed positions), while leaving our core positions and VRA 10 Baggers intact. Now, they’re starting to move. 

To check out all of our picks join us for two free weeks at VRAinsider.com

Russia-Ukraine and VRA Market Update

There’s no need for me to keep belaboring the point. Russia-Ukraine will drag out...Wag The Dogs have a schedule to keep...but Putin has no interest in taking all of Ukraine. 

The markets have known this from "first shots fired", which helps to explain the huge move higher from last Thursday.

So, what was Wednesdays big sell off? That was the shake-out that gave insiders the ability to get in (which explains why the internals held up so well).

Think of it this way. IF I am right, this is like the 2/23/20 lows of CV insanity. Those served as THE lows. We won't breach the lows of last Thursday mornings open…..that was the market bottom. 

This means that sell-offs going forward...certainly the lower opens....should be used as buying opportunities. That’s how we’ve been playing it…that’s how we’ll keep playing it, unless something changes (should last Thursdays lows taken out).

Volatility will remain...but the next big move should be back to the 200 dma for our broad market indexes. 

As of now, here's where each major index sits below its 200 dma:

S&P 500: 1.5%

DJ: 3%

nasdaq: 6.4%

R2K: 6.5%

This market wants to keep going higher. The 200 dma should now act as a magnet for our broad markets. Once back to those levels, the next set of actions will be MOST important to watch. 

We also had solid internals yesterday. 2:1 A/D and 3:1 + on volume. NYSE up-volume volume was 83%, making it the 6th day already in 2022 with 80% up-volume. Should we get another 80% day in NYSE volume it will serve as a rather massive technical buy signal. 

And small caps leading the way...again....along with semis, which made a very interesting reversal and closed up a big 3.3%.

Hard Truths About Dems and Russia-Ukraine. Communists Helping Communists. 

An Inconvenient Question For The “We Are All Ukraine Crowd"



Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: The Global Fascism of Psychopathic Megalomaniacs. Back Up The Truck. Gold and Miners Breaking Out.

Even as countries all over the world adopted elements of fascism (most all but Sweden, really), for those that still couldn’t see CV insanity as the “plandemic” that it is, after Canada’s invocation of the Emergency Act…full-on hard-core fascism from our northern neighbor…these folks no longer have an excuse. Fascism is here, not just in Canada, but in the US as well.

Even in Texas and Florida, workers by the millions have been forced to take experimental jabs…over an illness with a 99.8% recovery rate…or face losing their jobs. Many have said “no…I’m not bending the knee”…and were then terminated. And its happening in numbers 10 x this in other states. I hear from people like this day after day after day…including from VRAMembers…heartbreaking emails, texts and calls. To add insult to injury, families and friends are being split up, divided, at one anothers throats…all over the relative nothingness that is rona. I laugh these days when someone “ats me” with “but Kip, millions have died…”. 

Uh-huh….I believe that like I believe Biden got 81 million votes. Died “with/from rona” might be the worst kept secret about CV insanity. As the CDC has admitted, roughly 6% of these deaths came solely from CV. Brutal lies…that can only originate from psychopathic megalomaniacs. 

And our kids…for me, this is the toughest part of the plandemic to cover, research and talk about. A generation of kids lives completely upended. For many, destroyed. Their entire lives, they will never forget the controls, the jabs, the evilness of masking. It’s engrained in their DNA. The hoax of climate change, which placed the very real fear into an entire generation that they might not live to be 20, 30 or 40, as all of earths inhabitants could go the way of the dinosaur, was evil enough. But now, our babies have to endure the satan-like depravity of CV insanity.

Of course, none of this is just a mistake or a horrible set of decisions from our WEF leaders. It’s all purposeful. Evil incarnate. 

If these events don’t fit the definition of “fascism on earth”, what would? 

I covered all of this, plus the markets of course, in our VRA Podcast on Wednesday. For those that may be new to this conversation, I start at the beginning…at least the beginning of the last 20 years, the worst 20 year stretch in American history…with the events of 9/11. Because everything happening today is connected to 9/11. I’ll repeat what I’ve said for more than 15 years, in these pages and on stages around the world; the US will likely never heal until the truth of 9/11 is known. Frankly, the world won’t heal. When psychopathic megalomaniacs are allowed to get away with something this evil, why would they stop there? They would not…and they have not. 

Here’s 30 minutes of me connecting the dots…this is my life’s work…and my hope is that CV insanity has begun to wake enough good people up in time to stop what’s coming. It may already be too late. And hey, I cover the markets too…there’s something for everyone, even if you’re not into conspiracy facts.

VRA Podcast Link: https://soundcloud.com/user-640389393/vra-podcast-kip-herriage-daily-investing-podcast-feb-15-2022?si=7d98d69c669d45728036fec548815aeb&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

VRA Market Update

Important things are happening inside of this market. First, a pretty remarkable comeback yesterday…excellent afternoon trading/smart money hour…featuring a DJ that rallied 250 points off of its lows and nasdaq an even more impressive 200 point rally off of its lows. It was the internals that caught our eye…again. Even when the markets had sharp losses, NYSE and Nasdaq A/D and up/down volume were either positive or just slightly negative. Again, what we see as a significant pattern change under the hood continues. 

Back Up The Truck

Folks, there’s really only thing to focus on this AM, broad market wise…the latest sentiment readings from the weekly AAII Survey.
I’ve voted in this survey for approx 30 years now and it’s very rare to see bullish readings below 20. This weeks came in at just 19.2% bulls and 43.2% bears.

SentimenTrader has the analytics for us on AAII. There have been just 31 weeks with less than 20% bulls. In 29/31 cases, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 3 months with avg gains of 5.55%. 
6 months later the avg gain was 12.24%.1 year later the avg gain was 19.65% and the markets were higher 94% of the time.

VRA Bottom Line: with AAII bulls at just 19% (along with the “many” bull market and contrarian themes we cover often here), it is an impossibility for us to be bearish here. This is…and I say this with confidence…a back up the truck moment, assuming you are investing for at minimum the next 6–12 months. The data bears this out. 

With 9/12 VRA Investing System screens now bullish, make sure you join us for our 14 day free trial at VRAinsider.com to view the VRA Portfolio and ensure you are positioned correctly.

Gold and Miners Breaking Out

Gold hitting $1899 this AM, just $23/oz shy of a 52 week high. Our newer VRA Members will want to view our work of the last week (Gold and miners love rate hikes).

Here, we see GDX has been outperforming gold since October, and its picking up speed. Big buy signal for industry pros.

Here, we see gold is outperforming BTC, an event we began telling you would take place last November.

And gold is even outperforming oil. Long and strong gold and miners…multi-year bull market move higher from here.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: CPI at 40 Year High. Thanks Again Biden. Textbook Bottom and Bear Trap. Gold and Miners Love Rising Rate Cycles

Good Thursday morning all. The much awaited CPI data is out and its a hot number, with inflation hitting a 40 year high as the CPI posts a 7.5% annual gain in January. Honestly, don’t most of us look at this number and say “what do you mean it only rose 7.5% year over year…based on what I’m paying for stuff it feels much more like annual inflation of 20% +.”

Lets see, what’s changed over the last year? Thats right, we got a new president…the basement dweller with “81 million votes”. Not sure about you but I cannot find a single person that will admit to voting for Biden. 

The markets were flat in advance of the CPI data but immediately went south, with DJ now -225 and Nasdaq down a bigger 260 (-1.8%). 

In the bigger picture, this market has been on an absolute bull run, following what looks to this market watcher to have been a perfectly set “bear trap”, as I explained in our VRA Podcast yesterday. 

The 1/24 market bottom and the corresponding move higher has been “textbook”, so far. 

First, we had the 1/24 capitulation…classically completed on a sharply lower Monday open, just as the average Nasdaq stock had already collapsed by more than 50%.

Second, tech…led by the semis…have led the way higher. Nvidia (NVDA), which we highlighted in yesterdays VRA Update, has been a nonstop freight train higher…up a big 6.5% yesterday…and +22% from those 1/24 capitulation lows. 

Third, our VRA Investing System continues to pick up “significant pattern changes”, both in market internals and key leadership action, as the smart money hours are flipping back to bullish as well. Yesterdays internals were the best readings of 2022, with 80–85% up volume (NYSE, Nasdaq)…6:1 for Nasdaq…and another big day for advance declines. Back to back, fantastic days.

VRA Bottom Line: The markets have zoomed higher from the 1/24 lows. In just 2 weeks, a 2300 point move higher in the DJ (+7.5%) and a near 1400 point move higher in Nasdaq (+10.6%) and a BIG 16% move higher in the Semis (SMH)…and we remain buyers of dips, in our VRA Portfolio Positions. 

We’re still in the most seasonally bullish time of the year, equity inflows and share buybacks are piling in and the biggie; we’re still just entering year 3 of a new bull market, driven by (still) solid corporate earnings and record amounts of global liquidity. As we’ve said now for 18 months plus, this is a structural bull market, with the Trump Economic Miracle (still) serving as its springboard and corporate financial engineering emerging as a dark horse element for sharply higher prices. 

Plus one of mine and Tyler’s favorites; we told you several months ago that Biden was already a lame duck president…that’s now being recognized as fact…and the markets love DC gridlock as much as just about anything. They also love (early) rate hikes…but that looks like a stat that many market watchers have (oddly) yet to figure out. I think they’ll get there…”

Gold and the Miners LOVE Rate Hike Cycles 

Check out this 20 year chart of gold below, marked by points 1–6.

Point 1 is where I first recommended gold and silver, in my 2nd ever VRA Update in 2003. Gold was $375/oz….silver was $4.75/oz. 

What followed was the rising rate cycle of 2004–2006 (17 straight rate hikes) when gold that more than doubled in price. 

Point 5 was the next rate hike cycle (2016) as the Fed jacked rates higher 8 times in Trumps first 2 years. Again, gold doubled in price.

They REALLY love rising rate cycles. 

Finally, here’s golds 1 year chart, featuring a pennant formation (even the flagpole is in place). I believe a big breakout is nearing.

Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

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VRA Investment Update: The Fed Statement & Powell Presser Had Little in Common. Dovish! Markets Have (Likely) Bottomed. Sentiment is Screaming "Buy".

Good Thursday morning all. Following another wild day in the markets, here’s what looks to matter most. The last 3 days have brought severe intraday weakness…Powell made sure of that yesterday…but on each of the 3 days the smart money hour was “bullish”. On Monday we recouped 1200 points in losses….500 on Tuesday…then 500 again yesterday. Markets that rise in late day/smart money hour trading are typically anything but bearish. 

But just a horrible presser…the worst I’ve seen in my career. He was nervous, stuttering and stammering, completely non-committal and man oh man does this guy like to blabber. The markets have no confidence in the money printing rock star, whatsoever. From +500 to panic selling to someone cutting his mic. Of course, the second his mic was cut, it was lift off.

Quick recap of JP’s (latest) disaster of a presser, which I forced myself to go back and watch again last night:

- It was even more dovish than I remembered it. Powell committed to “nothing”, as he said a version of “we don’t yet know” more than 50 x. 

- He opened by saying (exact quotes): “The economy is slowing. The implications for the economy are uncertain and its causing great hardships for families. We have not yet made decisions on exactly what we will do”.
 
- Does any of the above sounds like 4 rate hikes in 2022 to you??

- Again, the FOMC statement read NOTHING like the words that came out of JP’s mouth. Importantly, the statement made clear that they would NOT start selling bonds (they own $9 trillion), but would instead let them “roll off” or “run off”, meaning they will simply let the existing bonds mature. Again, that’s not QT. 

My read: Obviously, inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern. Yellen (Treasury Sec and previous Fed Chair) is now a full-on political creature. Hiking rates aggressively in a midterm year and causing a severe bear market potentially in the process is NOT what her boss wants to see happen. JP likely has Q1 to get inflation under control, hence all of the jaw boning and supposed hawkishness. 

The markets have little to no confidence that JP know what he is doing. They’re right to have that view, certainly with the fact that he’s already made 4 major policy mistakes since taking the job.

VRA Bottom Line: Mondays lows should be THE lows. Thats:

- 33,150 on the Dow (34,168 today)

- 4222 on SPX (4349 today)

- 33,150 on Nasdaq (13,542 today)

** If these lows are taken out (by more than a hair), lower prices are likely into the first rate hike…then blast off higher. But I see Mondays lows holding. Next up: we must regain the 200 dma’s.

Sentiment HIGHLY Bearish (that’s bullish):

Folks, it’e getting harder to find bulls on Wall Street. But I promise you this; if we get the move higher that Tyler and I expect, these same gurus will tell us that they bought the dip. I was actually a bit surprised to see this yesterday. As flattered as Tyler and I might be that GS (vampire squid), Citi and JPM are following our market calls, you know our views as contrarians; we almost always feel more comfortable when we are in direct opposition to what the NY swamp has to say.

BUT…in this case, since we’re leading and not following, we are in complete agreement. 

This is still setting up as a strong rally into weeks end. Likely longer. 

AAII Sentiment Survey is hitting the highest levels of bears since the final 2 weeks of CV insanity, March 2020. Bulls are a measly 23%. 
Again, if you’re a contrarian (this guy), you are salivating to add to your positions…as we’ve just done.

** Futures are solidly higher as we start the day. I think these gains will hold and I look for another strong smart money hour. 


CV Insanity is officially over in the UK. Who would have thought they would end the ridiculous policies of masking and jab mandates before we did in the US??



God Bless The Truckers! Largest convoy in history. 50,000 trucks and more than 1.4 million people. US truckers are on their way now as well. Who knows, this might be enough to give (more) Canadians a backbone. 

https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1486508908093087751



Until next time, thanks again for reading…

Kip

Please join us each day after the market closes for our Daily VRA Investing Podcast!
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